R4 Belmont Park · Maiden Optional Claiming $75,000

1:25 PM ET · 6 1/2 Furlongs Dirt · $80,000 · 8 runners1:25 PM · 6½f Dirt · 8 runners

Upcoming $80K · Maiden Optional Claiming $75,000

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles
  1. 1My Beauty QueenP. Pena · J. JimenezPena · Jimenez?12-1Fair 20-15%—Debut?

    Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier ?

    Jockey Pedro Pena 25% career 2-for-18 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Jose L Jimenez 23% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R3: Our Sweet Harpie 8-1, R8: First Blessing 12-1, R10: Mambo Jazz 20-1 · Trainer R8: First Blessing 12-1

    First career start, by Idol out of Disclude. First-time starter from a barn that wins 6% of the time with them (34 tried).

    PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
    WORKS Routine prep: 3 works in 30d, last 11d ago

    Last three races

    First start. By Idol out of Disclude (Overanalyze)
    Trainer J. Jimenez: 1st-time starters: 6% wins, 15% in the money (34 starts) · 2-year-olds: 1% wins, 20% in the money (84 starts)
    Jockey P. Pena in sprints: 16 wins from 173 (9%)
    WorkTrkDistTimeHowRank
    10/19BEL4f:50.20breezing11/14
    10/9BEL4f:48.00breezing2/53from gate
    10/2BEL3f:38.80breezing15/19
    8/5BEL4f:52.00breezing51/53from gate
    7/25BEL4f:54.80breezing126/126
  2. 2Buzzer BeaterR. Santana Jr. · I. KantarmaciSantana Jr. · KantarmaciA75 715-1Fair 7-221%—75 71A1

    Card model 21% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 75 71

    Jockey Ricardo Jr Santana 13-for-90 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Ilkay Kantarmaci 28% career 5-for-36 on dirt this meet (14%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: Legal Gambit 3-1, R2: Hamilton's Way 8-1, R3: Quell 4-1, R5: Double Max 7-2 +5 more · Trainer R1: Sir Duke 8-5

    5th last time, 4½ lengths back, in a field of 10. A 75 top number against a 76 par, so it fits the level.

    PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 4)
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 7 days ago
    RECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/3BEL6f DMoc750005th/10 -4½L7512-1Chased 3w; weakened
    9/3SAR1 1/16 TMoc75000c5th/12 -7½L7111-12p1st;4-3p2nd;mvd out
  3. 3Scottish Brittany▲D. Davis · J. AbreuDavis · AbreuA835-2Fair 9-219%—83A▲ Last fig 83 at/above par 76

    Card model 19% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #4 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 83

    ▲ Last fig 83 at/above par 76
    Jockey Dylan Davis 31% career 4-for-51 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Jorge R Abreu 32% career 3-for-14 on dirt this meet (21%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: Jack Riley 8-1, R2: Razorcat 10-1, R5: Luna Dancer 4-1, R6: Ontario 8-1 +3 more

    Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 83, with 80 next best. Posted the fastest 5F work of the morning on Sep 18, in 1:00.00.

    EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.
    WORKS SHARP 5f in 1:00.00 on Sep 18 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30d

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/3BEL6f DMoc750002nd/10 -6L8311-1Chased 4-3w; belatedly
  4. 4Hot NightA. Fresu · M. TrombettaFresu · Trombetta?8-1Fair 12-17%—Debut?

    Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier ?

    Jockey Antonio Fresu 34% career 4-for-48 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Michael J Trombetta 33% career 0-for-6 on dirt this meet ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R2: Tacticality 8-1, R3: Pink Carats 5-2, R5: Fire Angel 6-1, R6: Princess Attitude 8-1 +4 more · Trainer R6: Mischief In Motion 4-1

    Debut for a trainer who is 10% with first-timers, over 202 starts. It had the morning's best 3F work on Oct 24, in :36.80.

    PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
    WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 3F on Oct 24; 3 works in 30d

    Last three races

    First start. By Omaha Beach out of Florida Fuego (Kantharos)
    Trainer M. Trombetta: 1st-time starters: 10% wins, 36% in the money (202 starts) · 2-year-olds: 14% wins, 44% in the money (333 starts)
    Jockey A. Fresu in sprints: 32 wins from 170 (19%)
    WorkTrkDistTimeHowRank
    10/24FAI3f:36.80breezing1/12● bullet
    10/16LRL5f1:01.60handily11/20from gate
    10/4LRL3f:37.60breezing8/10from gate
    9/26LRL5f1:01.80handily5/31
    9/20LRL5f1:02.00breezing8/18
  5. 5QuotedS. Marin · M. CasseMarin · CasseB57 749-2Fair 9-218%—57 74B2

    Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #2 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 57 74

    Jockey Samuel Marin 33% career 7-for-49 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Mark Casse 36% career 2-for-7 on dirt this meet ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R1: Sir Duke 8-5, R2: Counter Move 3-1, R3: Tiffany's Gem 6-1, R5: Say Wallahi Bro 3-1 +5 more · Trainer R10: And The Runner Is 9-5

    Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here. Back to 6½ furlongs off a 1 1/16 miles race.

    PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.
    TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Bmp brk; 3p trns; falter), and the figure already reflects it.
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 13d back)
    RECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/3SAR1 1/16 TMoc7500010th/12 -13L574.5-1Bmp brk;3p trns;falter
    7/23SAR5½f TMSW3rd/10 -8½L748.3-17w upper; mild kick
  6. 6Quiet Storm▼R. Maragh · J. AntonucciMaragh · AntonucciB648-1Fair 15-16%—64B▼ Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 76

    Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 64

    ▼ Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 76
    Jockey Rajiv Maragh 27% career 0-for-18 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Jena M Antonucci 28% career 1-for-4 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R3: Adroit 20-1, R7: Call Attendant 12-1, R8: Luz De Guia 15-1, R9: Mezcal Mama 15-1 +2 more · Trainer R10: I'm America 20-1

    Carries 123 pounds, 4 more than last time. A 64 is the high figure lately, short of the 76 par.

    PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    TROUBLED TRIP Adv 5w1/2; willingly last out; the speed figure already reflects it.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 30 days ago
    RECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/9KEE6f DMSW4th/12 -5½L6414-1Adv 5w1/2; willingly
  7. 7Goodproblemtohave▲J. Rodriguez · A. GreenRodriguez · GreenA80 61 56▲▲+227-2Fair 5-116%▲▲ Big jump +22 · career best80 61 56A▲ Last fig 80 at/above par 763

    Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +22 · career best · Last 3 figs 80 61 56

    ▲ Last fig 80 at/above par 76
    Jockey Jamie Rodriguez 34% career · Trainer Amelia J Green 29% career 0-for-19 on dirt this meet (0%)
    Also today · Jockey R2: Moment's Notice 6-1, R5: Mass Confusion 8-1, R6: Storm Miami 3-1, R7: Hundreds 15-1 +3 more · Trainer R5: Mass Confusion 8-1, R6: Storm Miami 3-1

    Figures are climbing: 56, 61, 80 over its last three. Dropped in well back early last out, 9th of 10 at the first call.

    PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.
    TROUBLED TRIP 5w upper; late foot last out; the speed figure already reflects it.
    WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 18 (5F in 1:01.60), 2 works in 30d
    RECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/3BEL6f DMoc750003rd/10 -9½L808.4-1b5w upper; late foot
    8/6SAR6f DMSW7th/10 -11L615.7-1Bobble after st; tired
    7/17SAR5½f DMSW3rd/10 -2¼L5615-1Chased 3-2w; mild kick
  8. 8Vekoma Dream▼L. Rivera Jr. · C. SummersRivera Jr. · SummersB708-1Fair 12-17%—70B▼ Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 76

    Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 70

    ▼ Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 76
    Jockey Luis Raul Jr Rivera 34% career 0-for-22 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Chad Summers 35% career 1-for-7 on dirt this meet ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R2: Bridle A Butterfly 9-2, R5: Surprise Audit 8-1, R8: Sequential 5-2, R9: Bette Davis Eyes 20-1
    ★ FASTEST WORK

    Finished 6th in a 10-horse race at BEL, beaten 5½ lengths. Fastest 4F work of its morning on Oct 15 (:47.20), a sign it is training forwardly.

    PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    TROUBLED TRIP Chased 6-5w; weakened last out; the speed figure already reflects it.
    WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Oct 15; 2 works in 30d

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/3BEL6f DMoc750006th/10 -5½L708.5-1bChased 6-5w; weakened

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: #2 is the only true speed and could control it.

How to read these marks
1 2 3
Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair
The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?
The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72
Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕
≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★
Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips
Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
¼½FINISHSTART6 1/2 FURLONGS · DIRT · main1-turn · chute start

BELMONT PARK · RACE 4

UPCOMING

Maiden Optional Claiming $75,000

Field
8 runners
Purse
$80,000
Post
1:25 PM ET
Pace
Pressed Pace
Card model top pick
#2 · 21%

Maiden Claiming, for fillies, 2-year-olds.

Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.

● Track record at 6 1/2 Furlongs: 74.4

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #2 Buzzer Beater (early speed, M/L 5-1). Recent figures: 75 · 71. Backup is #5 Quoted at 9-2. Use #7 Goodproblemtohave in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

  • Market favourite #3 SCOTTISH BRITTANY (5-2) — our number has it ranked #4.
  • #3 SCOTTISH BRITTANY — our #4 number, about right at the windows (21.9% to their 22.6%).
  • #7 GOODPROBLEMTOHAVE — our #3 number, about right at the windows (17.3% to their 17.5%).
  • #5 QUOTED — our #2 number, about right at the windows (16.3% to their 14.4%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

  • #2 BUZZER BEATER — we make it 15.4%, the morning line works out to 13.2%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #2 Buzzer Beater; pressure from #5 Quoted; the shape helps #5 Quoted, #7 Goodproblemtohave; and works against #1 My Beauty Queen, #2 Buzzer Beater, #4 Hot Night.

Lead
2Buzzer Beater95
Press
5Quoted90
Stalk
7Goodproblemtohave82
Close
3Scottish Brittany90
No style yet
8Vekoma Dream906Quiet Storm801My Beauty Queen4Hot Night

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

2
Buzzer Beater
95
5
Quoted
90
7
Goodproblemtohave
82

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

3
Scottish Brittany
13
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