R11 Belmont Park · Maiden Claiming $35,000

5:18 PM ET · 6 Furlongs Dirt · $49,000 · 11 runners5:18 PM · 6f Dirt · 11 runners

Upcoming $49K · Maiden Claiming $35,000

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #3 Speightful Storm (6-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 85 from 4 tries. Not in our top three.

  1. 1Violent ActJ. Ruiz · P. AntonacciRuiz · AntonacciA753-1Fair 5-229%—75A1

    Card model 29% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 75

    Jockey Jorge Ruiz 31% career · Trainer Philip Antonacci 30% career
    Also today · Jockey R1: Stars On The Water 10-1, R4: Annagenda 15-1, R7: No Pressure 6-1, R9: Thundering 20-1 +1 more · Trainer R7: No Pressure 6-1, R7: Lyneham 8-1
    60D LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

    Was running in maiden special weight; today's maiden claiming $35,000 is an easier level on paper. Last race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt.

    PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
    TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: 4-5w upper; wknd late. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.
    WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 4 works in 30d, last 7d ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    8/19SAR5½f TsMdSpWt5th/8 -5L754.0-1L4-5w upper; wknd late
  2. 2Midas' BankerD. Rivera · L. LugovichRivera · Lugovich?30-1Fair 99-11%—Debut?

    Card model 1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #11 · Tier ?

    Jockey Dalila A Rivera 34% career 0-for-7 on dirt this meet · Trainer Lisa L Lugovich 19% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

    Makes his first start with no form to go on, only the Central Banker and Gregorian Gold breeding. It has been schooling from the gate (latest Oct 15).

    PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    WORKS Routine prep: 2 works in 30d, last 7d ago

    Last three races

    First start. By Central Banker out of Gregorian Gold (Touch Gold)
    Trainer L. Lugovich: 1st-time starters: 0% wins, 9% in the money (11 starts)
    Jockey D. Rivera in sprints: 20 wins from 187 (11%)
    WorkTrkDistTimeHowRank
    10/24FAI4f:49.60breezing11/16
    10/15FAI5f1:03.40breezing2/2from gate
    9/29FAI5f1:01.80breezing4/5
    9/19FAI5f1:03.80breezing10/10
    9/12FAI5f1:03.40breezing1/2● bullet
  3. 3Speightful Storm▼★E. Zayas · H. BondZayas · BondA64 72 58▼-4@trip 856-1Fair 10-110%▼ Down -464 72 58@trip 85A▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (64 vs 72)★ Best at the trip 85

    Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -4 · Best fig at today's trip 85 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 64 72 58

    ▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (64 vs 72)★ Best at the trip 85
    Jockey Edgard J Zayas 37% career 8-for-42 on dirt this meet (19%), #2 of 21 · Trainer Harold James Bond 23% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R1: Road To Ravello 8-1, R2: Outlaw Annie 7-2, R3: Roman Grace 7-2, R5: Vekinda 5-1 +5 more · Trainer this race: Nordic Fyre 8-1

    Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 85, with 81 next best. Beaten 4½ lengths for 4th in a 7-horse maiden special weight race at FL.

    PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 5)
    WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 16d ago
    RECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/22FL5½f DMSW4th/7 -4½L640.8-1b L4w trn; weakened
    6/26BAQ6f DsMd500003rd/7 -½L722.2-1L5w upper; kept on
    4/17AQU6f TsMdSpWt8th/9 -13L587.5-1b LChased 4-2w; tired
  4. 4Always Honest▲P. Pena · J. JimenezPena · JimenezB85 43 71▲▲+24↕@trip 7415-1Fair 20-14%▲▲ Big jump +24 · career best85 43 71 ↕@trip 74B▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 79

    Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #9 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +24 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 43–85 · Best fig at today's trip 74 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 85 43 71

    ▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 79
    Jockey Pedro Pena 25% career 2-for-21 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Jose L Jimenez 23% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R3: Mermaid Magic 15-1, R4: Miami Style 20-1, R5: What's Up Bro 6-1, R6: Unspoken 12-1 +1 more · Trainer R3: Mermaid Magic 15-1
    ★ FASTEST WORK

    Back to 6 furlongs off a 7½ furlongs race. Tops the field on speed figures, an 85 against 81 for the next best.

    PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 2)
    WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Oct 21; 1 work in 30d
    RECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/10BEL7½f DsMd350004th/88513-1b L2w;fought;gamely
    9/7SAR6f DsMd3500010th/11 -18L4313-1b LLast away;4-3p turn
    8/6SAR7f DsMd350002nd/12 -5½L7122-1b LIns-3path turn;4p1/4
  5. 5Portadown LadR. Maragh · J. FerraroMaragh · FerraroC73 74 66▲+4≡@trip 8120-1Fair 50-12%▲ Up +473 74 66 ≡@trip 81C

    Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +4 · ≡ Steady figures 66–74 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 74 66

    Jockey Rajiv Maragh 27% career 0-for-22 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer James W Ferraro 36% career 1-for-15 on dirt this meet (7%)
    Also today · Jockey R3: Interstatelovesong 5-2, R4: Morning Prayer 9-2, R6: Lee's Onthe Loose 6-1, R7: Outrunner 5-1 +2 more
    CLASS UP

    Still looking for the first win after 8 starts. Cuts back from 7½ furlongs to 6 furlongs.

    EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.
    WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 7d ago
    RECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/10BEL7½f DsMd350006th/8 -4¾L7320-1b LIns;briefly3/4;wknd
    9/30BEL7f DMCL 20k8th/12 -9¼L7410-1b LBmp btwn brk;ins turn
    8/5SAR1 1/16 TsMd5000010th/11 -8L6652-1b LBmpd out7/8;3-4p turns
  6. 6War Profiteer▼A. Fresu · E. BarkerFresu · BarkerC73 68 62▲+7@trip 6910-1Fair 12-17%▲ Up +7 · career best73 68 62@trip 69C▼ Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 79

    Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +7 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 69 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 68 62

    ▼ Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 79
    Jockey Antonio Fresu 34% career 6-for-51 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Edward R Barker 29% career 1-for-3 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R1: Port In A Storm 5-1, R2: Gold Control 6-1, R3: L'Eclair 9-2, R4: She's Our Tiz 6-1 +4 more

    Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here. Has moved up each time out, 62 to 68 to 73.

    PACE HELPS Several horses want the lead, which is the early heat a closer is looking for.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 21 days ago
    RECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/18BEL6f TMCL 55k4th/6 -6½L737.3-1b LIns-4w; empty
    9/24BEL6f TsMd500005th/12 -7¼L688.6-1LBump btw st; belatedly
    8/5PID6f DMSW3rd/6 -1¼L622.3-1b LWait;lacked room
  7. 7Let's Get Weird▲C. Elliott · J. AntonucciElliott · AntonucciB79 73 61▲▲+12@trip 7910-1Fair 20-15%▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best79 73 61@trip 79B▲ Last fig 79 at/above par 79

    Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 79 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 79 73 61

    ▲ Last fig 79 at/above par 79
    Jockey Christopher Elliott 35% career 4-for-52 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Jena M Antonucci 28% career 1-for-5 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R1: Obliterated 10-1, R2: Jadugar 6-1, R3: Next On Stage 6-1, R6: Hyperborean Spirit 4-1 +2 more · Trainer R2: Outlaw Annie 7-2, R10: Gold Fashioned 10-1, this race: It's Banksy 6-1
    180D+ LAYOFFCLASS UP3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORK

    Returns from a 400-day break, the biggest in the field. Figures are climbing: 61, 73, 79 over its last three.

    PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 7)
    WORKS SHARP 3f in :35.00 on Oct 25 was the best time at that distance that morning; 3 works in 30d

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/26BAQ6f DsMd500004th/10 -1½L796.5-1LDueled 3-2w; wknd late
    8/31SAR6f DsMd300002nd/8 -1½L736.4-1LBumped st; ran on
    7/5SAR6½f DsMd300004th/10 -3½L6115-1LBmp after brk;2p;tired
  8. 8Nordic FyreLSS. Marin · H. BondMarin · BondC71 69 67►≡8-1Fair 10-19%► Steady71 69 67 ≡CLS

    Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 67–72 · Last 3 figs 71 69 67

    LS

    Longshot read: 8-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 9% against a line of 9%. A read, not a bet.

    Jockey Samuel Marin 33% career 7-for-54 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Harold James Bond 23% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R1: Broadcast 7-5, R4: Power Of Women 5-1, R5: Party In The Army 2-1, R6: Borago 7-2 +4 more · Trainer this race: Speightful Storm 6-1
    3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

    Drops from maiden claiming $50,000 to maiden claiming $35,000. Finished 5th in a 9-horse maiden claiming $50,000 race at SAR, beaten 6½ lengths.

    PACE HELPS Hot early fractions are likely, and that sets up a late run.
    WORKS Routine prep: 3 works in 30d, last 7d ago
    RECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/6SAR6½f DMCL 45k5th/9 -6½L7117-1b L3-4p turn;6p into lane
    8/9SAR6½f DMCL 35k3rd/8 -10L6924-1b LSteadied; altered st
    6/11BAQ1m DsMdSpWt5th/7 -4¾L6733-1b L5w upper; weakened
  9. 9Hurricane Kaz▼J. Hernandez · D. SynnefiasHernandez · SynnefiasB59 73 81▼▼-18↕@trip 808-1Fair 8-112%▼▼ Big drop -1859 73 81 ↕@trip 80B▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (59 vs 73)3

    Card model 12% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -18 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 59–81 · Best fig at today's trip 80 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 59 73 81

    ▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (59 vs 73)
    Jockey Julio A Hernandez 38% career · Trainer Dimitrios Synnefias 32% career 1-for-11 on dirt this meet (9%) ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R2: Lady Azul 8-1 · Trainer R2: Lady Azul 8-1, R2: Bikini Changer 5-1

    Last out was 6th, 12 lengths behind the winner, in a 6-horse maiden special weight race at BEL. Figures have slipped: 81, 73, 59 over its last three.

    EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.
    TROUBLED TRIP 4-5w pursuit; trailed last out; the speed figure already reflects it.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 29 days ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/11BEL6f DsMdSpWt6th/6 -12L5914-1b L4-5w pursuit; trailed
    6/20BAQ6f TrNYStllnB150k6th/6 -6¾L7334-1b4-5w uppr; no headway
    6/7SAR6½f DsMdSpWt3rd/13 -3½L8120-1b L2-3w upper; mild kick
  10. 10It's Banksy▼K. Davis · J. AntonucciDavis · AntonucciC60 65@trip 656-1Fair 12-17%—60 65@trip 65C▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 79

    Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Best fig at today's trip 65 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 60 65

    ▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 79
    Jockey Katie Davis 31% career 2-for-29 on dirt this meet (7%) · Trainer Jena M Antonucci 28% career 1-for-5 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R6: Mend The Way 15-1, R8: He's Got This 20-1, R10: Blessednotbothered 20-1 · Trainer R2: Outlaw Annie 7-2, R10: Gold Fashioned 10-1, this race: Let's Get Weird 10-1
    CLASS UP★ FASTEST WORK

    Switches from turf to dirt. Fastest 5F work of its morning on Oct 11 (1:01.00), a sign it is training forwardly.

    PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 4)
    TROUBLED TRIP Bump btw st; no impact last out; the speed figure already reflects it.
    WORKS SHARP 5f in 1:01.00 on Oct 11 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30d
    RECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/24BEL6f TsMd5000010th/12 -10L607.1-1b LBump btw st; no impact
    8/5SAR6f DMCL 25k5th/8 -2½L6513-1b LCut pace ins; tired
  11. 11Tampa Storm▲J. Lezcano · C. EnglehartLezcano · EnglehartA85 74 75▲▲+14@trip 754-1Fair 7-113%▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best85 74 75@trip 75A▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 792

    Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 75 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 85 74 75

    ▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 79
    Jockey Jose Lezcano 33% career 9-for-63 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Chris Englehart 34% career 2-for-11 on dirt this meet (18%) ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R1: Mr Webster 6-1, R2: Plenty Of Mischief 9-2, R3: Army Gal 4-1, R4: Boomington 7-2 +6 more · Trainer R6: Gaynor 10-1, R8: He's Got This 20-1
    CLASS DROP★ FASTEST WORK

    0 for 4 at today's distance. Owns the highest recent figure here at 85.

    EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.
    WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Oct 23; 2 works in 30d
    RECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/30BEL7f DMCL 20k2nd/12 -2¼L859.5-1b LBmp st;tkn up;4-3p trn
    9/7SAR6f DsMd350004th/11 -5L7417-1b LBmpd1/2;2p turn;tired
    3/5AQU6f DMCL 20k3rd/10 by hd755.2-1b L4p turn;led;outfinishd

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks
1 2 3
Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair
The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?
The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72
Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕
≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★
Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips
Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
¼½FINISHSTART6 FURLONGS · DIRT · main1-turn · chute start

BELMONT PARK · RACE 11

UPCOMING

Maiden Claiming $35,000

Field
11 runners
Purse
$49,000
Post
5:18 PM ET
Pace
Speed Duel
Card model top pick
#1 · 29%

Maiden Claiming, for 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.

Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 67.66

The shape is the story here: 4 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #1 Violent Act (a tactical type, M/L 3-1). Recent figures: 75. Backup is #11 Tampa Storm at 4-1. Use #9 Hurricane Kaz in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

  • Market favourite #1 VIOLENT ACT (3-1) — our number agrees.
  • #1 VIOLENT ACT — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 22.7%, they've got 19.5%.
  • #11 TAMPA STORM — our #2 number, about right at the windows (14.7% to their 15.6%).
  • #3 SPEIGHTFUL STORM — our #4 number, about right at the windows (10.8% to their 11.1%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

  • #1 VIOLENT ACT — we make it 22.7%, the morning line works out to 19.5%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #7 Let's Get Weird; pressure from #3 Speightful Storm, #4 Always Honest; the shape helps #6 War Profiteer, #8 Nordic Fyre; and works against #1 Violent Act, #2 Midas' Banker, #3 Speightful Storm.

Lead
7Let's Get Weird903Speightful Storm884Always Honest8610It's Banksy84
Press
9Hurricane Kaz88
Stalk
5Portadown Lad8611Tampa Storm76
Close
6War Profiteer928Nordic Fyre85
No style yet
1Violent Act932Midas' Banker

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

7
Let's Get Weird
90
3
Speightful Storm
88
9
Hurricane Kaz
88
4
Always Honest
86
5
Portadown Lad
86
10
It's Banksy
84
11
Tampa Storm
76

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

8
Nordic Fyre
11
6
War Profiteer
8
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