Pick sheet

Race 114:20 PM OClm 55000n1x

1 3/16 Mi · Turf · 12 entered. Our model's top pick, Noble Dynasty, is 20% to win (morning line implies 20%). Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #2 Noble Dynasty ML 7-2 Fair 4-1 Model #1 Top last-race fig ▲ Up +5 ▲ Last fig 91 at/above par 86

Jockey J. Alvarado · Trainer W. Mott · Dist 1: 0-1-0 · best fig at 1 3/16 turf 89 · 56 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/6	SAR	1⅜m T	OC 55k n1x	4th/8 -2L	91	4.8-1	L	Tracked ins; kept on
8/29	SAR	1 1/16 T	OC 100k n1x	4th/8 -1½L	83	4.0-1	L	Ins-3p1st;4p2nd;6p3/16
7/5	SAR	1½m T	OC 55k n1x	5th/11 -4¼L	97	3.1-1	L	3w 1st & 2nd turns

Case: Last out 4th/8 -2L in the OC55000n1x at SAR. Last Brisnet figures 91-83-97. Best at today's distance 89. 0-for-1 at the distance. W. Mott / J. Alvarado.

Knock: Never raced at Belmont Park. 0-for-1 at the distance.

Contender #7 Urgency ML 9-2 Fair 9-2 Model #2 ▼ Down -7

Jockey M. Franco · Trainer L. Rice · KEE 1: 0-1-0 · 25 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/7	BEL	1 5/16 T	OC 55k n1x	2nd/6 by hd	83	4.7-1	L	Pace;yield3/16;held2nd
9/7	SAR	1⅛m T	OC 45k	Won/11	97	8.8-1	L	Ins;ask2p1/4;responded
8/27	SAR	1 1/16 T	Clm 55k n2lc	2nd/8 -1½L	86	2.8-1	L	5w uppr; lost the nod

Case: Last out 2nd in the OC55000n1x at BEL. Last Brisnet figures 83-97-86. 0-for-1 at Belmont Park. L. Rice / M. Franco.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Use #1 Likeness ML 8-1 Fair 5-1 Model #3 ► Steady ≡ Steady 76–83 1st-time blinkers Last out 5th/6 -5¾L in the OC55000n1x at BEL. Last Brisnet figures 80-83-81. 0-for-1 at Belmont Park. C. McGaughey / F. Prat. Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Jockey F. Prat · Trainer C. McGaughey · KEE 1: 0-0-0 · 25 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/7	BEL	1 5/16 T	OC 55k n1x	5th/6 -5¾L	80	8.0-1	L	Bobble;2p;no clsng bid
6/4	SAR	1⅜m T	OC 55k n1x	8th/8 -6¾L	83	4.8-1	L	Ins-2path turns;empty
5/7	BAQ	1⅜m T	OC 55k n1x	2nd/6 -½L	81	8.1-1	L	3-2p1st;ins;4p3/16;bid

Longshot #6 Twain ML 8-1 Fair 8-1 Model #4 ▲ Up +6 ▲ Last fig 87 at/above par 86

Jockey A. Fresu · Trainer M. Meyers · KEE 1: 0-0-1 · Dist 1: 0-0-0 · 28 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	BEL	1m T	Alw n1x	3rd/11 -4¾L	87	21-1	b L	8-9w upper; late foot
9/5	CNL	1 1/16 T	rHandicap	3rd/10 -6¼L	86	12-1	b L	Hop brk;rally;missd2nd
8/8	CNL	1¼m T	Alw n1x	6th/7 -7L	73	3.1-1	b L	3-4wd trip; no rally

Case: Last out 3rd in the Alw105000n1x at BEL. Last Brisnet figures 87-86-73. 0-for-1 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Belmont Park. M. Meyers / A. Fresu.

Knock: 0-for-1 at the distance.

Narrowing the field: A #2, #5, #7 · B #4, #6, #9 · C #1, #3, #8, #10, #11, #12

Angles: #2 Last fig 91 at/above par 86 · #3 Lone speed on early pace · #5 Last fig 91 at/above par 86 · #6 Last fig 87 at/above par 86 · #9 Last fig 86 at/above par 86 · #10 Best fig 81 is 5+ under today's par 86

R11 Belmont Park · Optional Claiming $55,000

4:20 PM ET · 1 3/16 Miles Turf · $105,000 · 10 runners (2 out)4:20 PM · 1 3/16m Turf · 10 runners (2 out)

Official $105K · Optional Claiming $55,000

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1LikenessRan 6thF. Prat · C. McGaugheyPrat · McGaugheyC80 83 81►≡8-1Fair 5-117%► Steady80 83 81 ≡C3

Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 76–83 · Last 3 figs 80 83 81

Jockey Flavien Prat 40% career 12-for-62 on turf this meet (19%), #3 of 28 · Trainer Claude Iii McGaughey 3-for-18 on turf this meet (17%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Captivated 5-2, R2: Commuted 2-1, R3: Build Or Buy 4-1, R4: Miracle Morrow 8-1 +6 more · Trainer R5: Flightress 5-2, R7: Mid Summer 6-1, R9: Pentathlon 9-2, this race: Quiet Power 10-1

Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power. 5th last time, 5¾ lengths back, in a field of 6.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

TROUBLED TRIP Bobble; 2p; no clsng bid last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 8d back)

RECORD Flavien Prat from post 1 here: 2 wins, 8 top-3 in 21 rides · 22% wins from all posts here

RECORD Chestnuts win 9% here vs 12% for all horses (237 starts)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/7	BEL	1 5/16 T	OC 55k n1x	5th/6 -5¾L	80	8.0-1	L	Bobble;2p;no clsng bid
6/4	SAR	1⅜m T	OC 55k n1x	8th/8 -6¾L	83	4.8-1	L	Ins-2path turns;empty
5/7	BAQ	1⅜m T	OC 55k n1x	2nd/6 -½L	81	8.1-1	L	3-2p1st;ins;4p3/16;bid

2Noble Dynasty▲Ran 2ndJ. Alvarado · W. MottAlvarado · MottA91 83 97▲+5@trip 897-2Fair 4-120%▲ Up +591 83 97@trip 89A▲ Last fig 91 at/above par 861

Card model 20% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +5 · Best fig at today's trip 89 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 91 83 97

▲ Last fig 91 at/above par 86

Jockey Junior Alvarado 34% career 1-for-20 on turf this meet (5%) · Trainer William I Mott 34% career 0-for-34 on turf this meet (0%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Sconset Bluff 8-1, R5: Claim The Throne 4-1, R7: Cozy Rosie 15-1, R8: Snowyte 4-1 +3 more · Trainer R1: Hold'em 15-1, R1: Sconset Bluff 8-1, R5: Claim The Throne 4-1, R9: Bendoog 4-1 +3 more

CLASS DROP

Cuts back from 1 3/8 miles to 1 3/16 miles. Figure of 97 on the record sits above the 86 par.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 8 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/6	SAR	1⅜m T	OC 55k n1x	4th/8 -2L	91	4.8-1	L	Tracked ins; kept on
8/29	SAR	1 1/16 T	OC 100k n1x	4th/8 -1½L	83	4.0-1	L	Ins-3p1st;4p2nd;6p3/16
7/5	SAR	1½m T	OC 55k n1x	5th/11 -4¼L	97	3.1-1	L	3w 1st & 2nd turns

3Certified Loverboy▲Ran 5thP. Pena · F. AbreuPena · AbreuC81 87 94▼▼-1330-1Fair 50-12%▼▼ Big drop -1381 87 94C▲ Lone speed on early pace

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -13 · Last 3 figs 81 87 94

▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey Pedro Pena 25% career 1-for-14 on turf this meet (7%) · Trainer Fernando Abreu 32% career 0-for-8 on turf this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Dream Spell 30-1

180D+ LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORK

Back after 191 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. The longest gap in the field. Raises its level, optional claiming last time and allowance optional claiming now.

PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 8)

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 2 (5F in 1:02.00), 3 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
4/24	PEN	1 1/16 D	OC 40k b	5th/6 -7L	81	1.7-1	L	Prompt outside;faded
3/1	LRL	1⅛m D	OC 40k n2x	5th/7 -1½L	87	0.4-1	L	Rail; pace; weakened
2/12	LRL	1 1/16 D	OC 40k n2x	3rd/7 -1½L	94	3.1-1	L	Hookd boths side;tryng

4HarrowRan 7thD. Davis · S. Joseph Jr.Davis · Joseph Jr.B83 83 88▼-4≡8-1Fair 10-19%▼ Down -483 83 88 ≡B

Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -4 · ≡ Steady figures 83–91 · Last 3 figs 83 83 88

Jockey Dylan Davis 31% career 6-for-90 on turf this meet (7%) · Trainer Saffie A Jr Joseph 1-for-14 on turf this meet (7%)

Also today · Jockey R3: I'm Not Kidding 20-1, R4: Road Show 8-1, R7: So Darn Pretty 12-1, R10: Rose Ruler 20-1 · Trainer R5: First Site 12-1

CLASS DROP

Beaten ½ length for 3rd in a 6-horse optional claiming race at BEL. A 91 in its last five clears the 86 par for this level.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Aug 29 (3F in :36.20), 2 works in 30d

RECORD Dylan Davis from post 4 here: 1 win, 5 top-3 in 17 rides · 7% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/7	BEL	1 5/16 T	OC 55k n1x	3rd/6 -½L	83	6.0-1	b L	Forward2p;kept on
9/3	KD	1½m T	OC 80k n2x	5th/11 -5L	83	3.0-1	b L	3w;shiftd in;wknd
6/18	BAQ	1⅜m T	OC 80k n2x	Won/7 by ½	88	5.2-1	b L	3w uppr; just held on

5Fuerteventura▲Ran 4thJ. Castellano · J. NessCastellano · NessA91 87 40▲▲+20↕6-1Fair 10-19%▲▲ Big jump +20 · career best91 87 40 ↕A▲ Last fig 91 at/above par 86

Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +20 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 40–91 · Last 3 figs 91 87 40

▲ Last fig 91 at/above par 86

Jockey J J Castellano 30% career 11-for-65 on turf this meet (17%) · Trainer Jamie Ness 41% career 0-for-4 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R3: Comets Choice 6-1, R4: Epic Prayer 15-1, R5: Podkova 10-1, R6: Chips And Fish 7-2 +3 more

3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Figures are climbing: 40, 87, 91 over its last three. Has run 91 against a 86 par for the class.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (3 works in 30d, last 6d ago)

RECORD J J Castellano from post 5 here: 1 win, 4 top-3 in 18 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/6	CNL	1 1/16 T	OC 50k n2x	2nd/6 -3L	91	4.2-1	b L	Tracked inside;clr 2nd
8/14	CNL	1⅛m T	OC 50k n2x	2nd/8 -½L	87	7.8-1	b L	Prompt2w;lng drv;missd
7/23	CNL	1 1/16 D	OC 50k n2x	7th/7 -12L	40	2.4-1	b L	Tracked btwn;2-3p;stop

6Twain▲LSRan 9thA. Fresu · M. MeyersFresu · MeyersB87 86 73▲+68-1Fair 8-111%▲ Up +687 86 73B▲ Last fig 87 at/above par 86LS

Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +6 · Last 3 figs 87 86 73

▲ Last fig 87 at/above par 86LS

Longshot read: 8-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 11% against a line of 9%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Antonio Fresu 34% career 12-for-98 on turf this meet (12%) · Trainer Madison F Meyers 33% career 0-for-2 on turf this meet ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R3: Bella Musica 8-1, R5: Dreamology 6-1, R6: Rule Sixty Two 10-1, R7: Kokomotion 6-1 +2 more · Trainer R7: War Madam 15-1

Goes 1 3/16 miles after running a mile last time. Has moved up each time out, 73 to 86 to 87.

EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 10d back)

RECORD Antonio Fresu from post 6 here: 2 wins, 5 top-3 in 16 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

RECORD Chestnuts win 9% here vs 12% for all horses (237 starts)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	BEL	1m T	Alw n1x	3rd/11 -4¾L	87	21-1	b L	8-9w upper; late foot
9/5	CNL	1 1/16 T	rHandicap	3rd/10 -6¼L	86	12-1	b L	Hop brk;rally;missd2nd
8/8	CNL	1¼m T	Alw n1x	6th/7 -7L	73	3.1-1	b L	3-4wd trip; no rally

7UrgencyRan 8thM. Franco · L. RiceFranco · RiceA83 97 86▼-79-2Fair 9-219%▼ Down -783 97 86A2

Card model 19% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -7 · Last 3 figs 83 97 86

Jockey Manuel Franco 33% career ★ 25-for-106 on turf this meet (24%), #2 of 28 · Trainer Linda Rice 37% career ★ 5-for-24 on turf this meet (21%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Election Hero 9-5, R2: Contrary Thinking 9-5, R3: Pistolsnpearls 8-1, R4: House Of War 6-5 +6 more · Trainer R2: Commuted 2-1, R3: Queen's Corner 10-1, R6: Chips And Fish 7-2, R7: Two Martini's 10-1 +1 more

Went to the front early last out (early pace figure 85). Finished 2nd in a 6-horse optional claiming race at BEL, beaten a head.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 7d back)

RECORD Manuel Franco from post 7 here: 3 wins, 11 top-3 in 25 rides · 22% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/7	BEL	1 5/16 T	OC 55k n1x	2nd/6 by hd	83	4.7-1	L	Pace;yield3/16;held2nd
9/7	SAR	1⅛m T	OC 45k	Won/11	97	8.8-1	L	Ins;ask2p1/4;responded
8/27	SAR	1 1/16 T	Clm 55k n2lc	2nd/8 -1½L	86	2.8-1	L	5w uppr; lost the nod

8ChaytonRan 10thC. Elliott · J. RyersonElliott · RyersonC78 81 79►≡30-1Fair 99-11%► Steady78 81 79 ≡C

Card model 1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 77–81 · Last 3 figs 78 81 79

Jockey Christopher Elliott 35% career 0-for-38 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer James T Ryerson 27% career 0-for-13 on turf this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Stickupwithoutagun 12-1, R3: Sweet Grace 8-1, R6: Until Last Call 20-1 · Trainer R3: Sweet Grace 8-1, R6: Until Last Call 20-1

Changes barns, from David Fawkes to James T Ryerson. Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Aug 9; 2 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/13	GP	1 1/16 D	OC 25k n1x	5th/6 -4L	78	8.0-1	L	Wide;lacked needed bid
8/17	GP	1 1/16 T	OC 25k n1x	4th/7 -6L	81	18-1	L	Steadied st;mild rally
7/20	GP	1m T	OC 25k n1x	7th/9 -7L	79	12-1	L	2w; no threat

9Just For Luck▲J. Velazquez · R. DutrowVelazquez · DutrowB86 86 86►≡6-1<1%► Steady86 86 86 ≡B▲ Last fig 86 at/above par 86

Card model <1% · Our #11 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 84–86 · Last 3 figs 86 86 86

▲ Last fig 86 at/above par 86

Jockey J R Velazquez 34% career 0-for-11 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Richard E Dutrow 22% career 1-for-22 on turf this meet (5%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Horizontal Rain 3-1, R4: Captain George 6-1, R5: Royal County Down 8-1, R7: Toes 8-1 +3 more · Trainer R6: Rule Sixty Two 10-1, R9: Ignite The Light 6-1

Jockey switch: Jose Lezcano last out, J R Velazquez today. A longer trip: a mile last out, 1 3/16 miles today.

EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.

TROUBLED TRIP Bump btw; bobbled st last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 8 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	BEL	1m T	Alw n1x	4th/11 -5¾L	86	8.5-1	b L	Bump btw; bobbled st
8/8	SAR	1⅜m T	OC 55k n1x	4th/10 -3L	86	16-1	b L	2-3path turns;no kick
6/20	BAQ	1m T	sOC45000n2x	Won/6	86	5.9-1	b L	Tracked ins; clr; safe

10Guitarist▼E. Zayas · J. DelgadoZayas · DelgadoC81 72 74▲▲+820-1<1%▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best81 72 74C▼ Best fig 81 is 5+ under today's par 86

Card model <1% · Our #12 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best · Last 3 figs 81 72 74

▼ Best fig 81 is 5+ under today's par 86

Jockey Edgard J Zayas 37% career 10-for-75 on turf this meet (13%) · Trainer Jorge Delgado 37% career 0-for-6 on turf this meet ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R3: Night Sky 5-1, R4: Billy Bucchero 12-1, R5: Flightress 5-2, R6: Out Of The Fog 30-1 +4 more · Trainer R3: Night Sky 5-1

Moves up from allowance to allowance optional claiming. Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 68 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	PID	1 1/16 D	Alw n1x	2nd/7 -1½L	81	2.2-1	L	Best stride late
9/19	MED	1m T	Alw n1x	3rd/6 -5L	72	17-1	L	Waited 1/4; late rally
7/15	PID	1 1/16 D	MSW	Won/5	74	1.0-1	L	Patient;surge;grd dwn

11Kid CairoRan 3rdS. Marin · K. DannerMarin · DannerC83 75 78▲▲+915-1Fair 20-15%▲▲ Big jump +983 75 78C

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · Last 3 figs 83 75 78

Jockey Samuel Marin 33% career 11-for-82 on turf this meet (13%) · Trainer Kelsey Danner 35% career 1-for-9 on turf this meet (11%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Live 7-2, R2: Paradise Valley 10-1, R3: Cadillac Mary 5-1, R3: Coach Callahan 15-1 +4 more

60D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LAST

Kelsey Danner takes over the training from Randall Russell. Switches from dirt to turf.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS Routine prep: 3 works in 30d, last 7d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/18	PID	1 1/16 D	Alw n1x	Won/9 by 1¾	83	4.6-1	b L	Split rivals;surge lat
5/23	BAQ	1 1/16 T	Clm 55k n2l	6th/11 -7½L	75	4.8-1	L	2p turns;no rally
3/28	GP	1m T	OC 25k n1x	8th/10 -6L	78	21-1	L	Chckd1st;blocked 1/8

12Quiet PowerRan 1stJ. Lezcano · C. McGaugheyLezcano · McGaugheyC78 83 84▼-4≡10-1Fair 12-17%▼ Down -478 83 84 ≡C

Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -4 · ≡ Steady figures 78–84 · Last 3 figs 78 83 84

Jockey Jose Lezcano 33% career 7-for-88 on turf this meet (8%) · Trainer Claude Iii McGaughey 3-for-18 on turf this meet (17%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Hold'em 15-1, R3: Queen's Corner 10-1, R4: Howard's Hope 7-2, R6: Eye On The Ball 8-1 +2 more · Trainer R5: Flightress 5-2, R7: Mid Summer 6-1, R9: Pentathlon 9-2, this race: Likeness 8-1

LASIX 1ST4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Runs for $105,000 today after a $500,000 race last time. Picks up 5 pounds from its last start.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 4 works in 30d and the last 8d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/7	CNL	1⅛m T	OldDmDby G3	5th/10 -4¾L	78	20-1		Mild rally inside late
7/25	SAR	1 1/16 T	OC 100k n1x	5th/9 -3½L	83	9.5-1	L	Ins;2p5/16;mvd out3/16
6/11	BAQ	1m T	MSW	Won/8 by 1½	84	4.2-1	L	4w uppr; up fin 70yds

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #2 Noble Dynasty, finished 2nd.

1st12Quiet PowerWin$13.96Place$7.44Show$5.42Our #7

2nd2Noble DynastyWin—Place$4.40Show$3.50Our #1

3rd11Kid CairoWin—Place—Show$14.22Our #8

4th5FuerteventuraOur #5

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

BELMONT PARK · RACE 11

OFFICIAL

Optional Claiming $55,000

Field

12 runners

Purse

$105,000

Post

4:20 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#2 · 20%

Claiming $55,000, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #2 Noble Dynasty (a presser/stalker, M/L 7-2). Recent figures: 91 · 83 · 97. Backup is #7 Urgency at 9-2. Use #1 Likeness in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · 2ND

Top pick Noble Dynasty ran 2nd · Quiet Power won (our #7)

What worked

✓ Top pick in the money (2nd)

What didn't

✗ Winner was outside our top 3 (our #7)
✗ Our top 3 finished 2nd, 8th, 6th

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#2 NOBLE DYNASTY	2nd
#2	#7 URGENCY	8th
#3	#1 LIKENESS	6th
#4	#6 TWAIN	9th
#5	#5 FUERTEVENTURA	4th

Actual finish

1st	#12 Quiet Power	our #7
2nd	#2 Noble Dynasty	our #1
3rd	#11 Kid Cairo	our #8
4th	#5 Fuerteventura	our #5
5th	#3 Certified Loverboy	our #9

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #2 NOBLE DYNASTY (7-2) — our number agrees.
#2 NOBLE DYNASTY — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 20.5%, they've got 17.2%.
#7 URGENCY — our #2 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 18.0%, they've got 14.1%.
#1 LIKENESS — our #3 number, a price play — we're at 12.8%, the board 8.6%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#2 NOBLE DYNASTY — we make it 20.5%, the morning line works out to 17.2%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#7 URGENCY — we make it 18.0%, the morning line works out to 14.1%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Longshot the model rates above its line: #1 LIKENESS (8-1) — our fair 12.8% is above the morning line's 8.6%; supported by: 5-way speed duel up front — meltdown sets up the closer

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #3 Certified Loverboy; pressure from #2 Noble Dynasty, #7 Urgency; the shape helps #1 Likeness, #2 Noble Dynasty, #4 Harrow; and works against #3 Certified Loverboy.

Lead

3Certified Loverboy94

Press

2Noble Dynasty877Urgency854Harrow835Fuerteventura83

Stalk

1Likeness8012Quiet Power7910Guitarist768Chayton7511Kid Cairo72

6Twain829Just For Luck49

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Certified Loverboy

Noble Dynasty

Urgency

Harrow

Fuerteventura

Likeness

Quiet Power

Guitarist

Chayton

Kid Cairo

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Twain

Just For Luck

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