R9 Laurel Park · Allowance · $48,000 purse

4:23 PM ET · 6 Furlongs Dirt · $48,000 · 7 runners4:23 PM · 6f Dirt · 7 runners

Upcoming $48K · Allowance · $48,000 purse

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #3 Nancy Mary (8-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 86 from 4 tries. Not in our top three.

1Kentucky Mule▼C. Lopez · L. GaudetLopez · GaudetB73 70 45▲▲+16↕5-1Fair 8-112%▲▲ Big jump +1673 70 45 ↕B▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 863

Card model 12% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +16 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 45–73 · Last 3 figs 73 70 45

▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 86

Jockey Carlos Eduardo Lopez 36% career 2-for-30 on dirt this meet (7%) · Trainer Lacey Gaudet 30% career 0-for-9 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Crab Mentality 10-1, R2: Her Decision 12-1, R5: Fan Club 8-1, R6: Gotta Be Da Shoes 20-1 +1 more · Trainer R4: Madonna Of Loreto 9-5

★ FASTEST WORK

6th last time, 10 lengths back, in a field of 7. Cuts back from a mile to 6 furlongs.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS SHARP 3f in :38.40 on Oct 27 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30d

RECORD Carlos Eduardo Lopez from post 1 here: 20 wins, 50 top-3 in 126 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/19	LRL	1m D	Alw n1x	6th/7 -10L	73	12-1	b L	Rail; dueled; gave way
9/5	TIM	-6½f D	MCL 40k	Won/4	70	1.5-1	b L	Ins-2wd;hustled away
8/6	CNL	6f T	frMdSpWt	8th/9 -12L	45	32-1	b L	Std'd 1/2;4-5w;faded

2Blo By the Field▼J. Torres · M. SalvaggioTorres · SalvaggioB77 76 77►≡@trip 786-1Fair 7-113%► Steady77 76 77 ≡@trip 78B▼ Best fig 78 is 5+ under today's par 862

Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 71–77 · Best fig at today's trip 78 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 76 77

▼ Best fig 78 is 5+ under today's par 86

Jockey Jomar Torres 32% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet · Trainer Mark V Salvaggio 30% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet

4/4 board here

A 77 is the high figure lately, short of the 86 par. 4 wins from 11 starts at this distance.

EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.

TROUBLED TRIP Closed willingly 5wd last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 108 days ago

RECORD On the board in all 4 starts here (0 wins)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	LRL	5½f D	frAlw45600n1x	2nd/4 -2L	77	1.7-1	L	Closed willingly 5wd
9/12	LRL	6f D	frAlw47040n1x	2nd/5 -4L	76	9.8-1	L	3wd 1/4; game
8/20	PEN	6f D	Alw s	3rd/6 -7½L	77	14-1	L	Rate back;4-5wd;willng

3Nancy Mary★R. Mena · D. DilodovicoMena · DilodovicoA72 74 86▼-4@trip 868-1Fair 10-18%▼ Down -472 74 86@trip 86A★ Best at the trip 86

Card model 8% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -4 · Best fig at today's trip 86 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 74 86

★ Best at the trip 86

Jockey Raul E Mena 27% career 3-for-16 on dirt this meet (19%) · Trainer Damon R Dilodovico 27% career 0-for-6 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R3: Conquest Dancer 30-1, R3: Imperio Azteca 30-1, R10: Silverbullettwenty 30-1 · Trainer R6: Gotta Be Da Shoes 20-1

60D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS6/9 board here

Back after 98 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. The longest gap in the field. Trending the wrong way on speed, 86 to 74 to 72.

EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 3 works in 30d and the last 6 days ago

RECORD 2 wins, 6 on the board from 9 starts here

RECORD Raul E Mena from post 3 here: 10 wins, 33 top-3 in 76 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
7/24	DEL	5½f D	OC 32k n2x	6th/7 -7¾L	72	38-1	b L	Outrun
5/30	LRL	7f D	frAlw49040n1x	4th/7 -7L	74	1.2-1	b L	Overland 4-6w;empty
4/17	LRL	6f D	Alw n1x	Won/6 by 3½	86	15-1	b L	Mv btw;shift 4w;grind

4Bourbon N Lace▼M. Rowland · M. GorhamRowland · GorhamC72 76 77▼-5≡15-1Fair 20-14%▼ Down -572 76 77 ≡C▼ Best fig 79 is 5+ under today's par 86

Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -5 · ≡ Steady figures 72–78 · Last 3 figs 72 76 77

▼ Best fig 79 is 5+ under today's par 86

Jockey Madeline Rowland 21% career · Trainer Michael E Gorham 32% career 1-for-4 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Shanghai Rose 6-1, R6: Don't Do It 20-1 · Trainer R2: Shanghai Rose 6-1, R6: Don't Do It 20-1

2/4 board here

Purse goes from $17,000 to $48,000, a step up. Shortens up to 6 furlongs after going 1 1/16 miles.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 43 days ago

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 4 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	PEN	1 1/16 D	RHP 40-55	4th/6 -3½L	72	3.3-1	L	Urged 1/2; mild rally
9/23	DEL	1m D	ROC	3rd/5 -5½L	76	8.9-1	L	Angled 4wd; belatedly
8/7	DEL	1 1/16 D	OC 25k	4th/6 -2¼L	77	5.0-1	L	No rally;

5Hurrah▼J. Toledo · K. VossToledo · VossA78 69 81▲+3@trip 785-2Fair 2-133%▲ Up +378 69 81@trip 78A▼ Best fig 81 is 5+ under today's par 861

Card model 33% · Fair odds 2-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +3 · Best fig at today's trip 78 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 78 69 81

▼ Best fig 81 is 5+ under today's par 86

Jockey Jevian Toledo 33% career ★ 6-for-25 on dirt this meet (24%) · Trainer Katharine M Voss 19% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R4: Turkish Breeze 30-1, R7: Prince Of Peace 5-2, R8: Devilish Grin 4-1

◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE60D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Finished 2nd in a 7-horse $50,000 claiming race at CNL, beaten 3½ lengths. A 68-day gap since its last race.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Blocked; altered upper), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS Routine prep: 3 works in 30d, last 5d ago

RECORD Jevian Toledo from post 5 here: 28 wins, 71 top-3 in 170 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/23	CNL	6f D	Clm 50k n2l	2nd/7 -3½L	78	7.0-1	L	Blocked;altered upper
7/31	CNL	5½f T	Alw n1x	9th/9 -7½L	69	69-1	L	Dropped back
5/22	LRL	5½f D	MCL 35k	Won/5	81	1.7-1	L	Rated;erratic lane;drg

6Profound Change▼M. Chuan · M. ShumanChuan · ShumanA77 78 75►@trip 759-5Fair 4-120%► Steady77 78 75@trip 75A▼ Best fig 78 is 5+ under today's par 86

Card model 20% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #6 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 75 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 78 75

▼ Best fig 78 is 5+ under today's par 86

Jockey Martin Chuan 37% career 2-for-8 on dirt this meet (25%) · Trainer Mark Shuman 25% career 1-for-2 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Ballykeefe 10-1, R3: Costa Amalfitana 10-1, R5: Mo Rewards 8-1, R8: Amazing Gracer 3-1 +1 more · Trainer R1: Satisfied Mind 20-1, R6: Forty Seven Smoker 12-1

3/3 board here

Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 78 against a 86 par. Was 6th of 7 at the first call last time.

EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Stead 1/2; 6w; no threat. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS SHARP 5f in 1:00.40 on Aug 29 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30d

RECORD On the board in all 3 starts here (1 win)

RECORD Martin Chuan from post 6 here: 7 wins, 24 top-3 in 47 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	LRL	5½f D	Alw n1x	3rd/7 -5½L	77	2.5-1	L	Stead 1/2;6w;no threat
1/17	LRL	5½f D	MSW	Won/8 by hd	78	3.6-1		5w;drft in 1/16;drvng
11/28	LRL	6f D	sMdSpWt	2nd/7 -4L	75	8.6-1		Rail;chased;game

7Charmed Hour▼I. Beato · E. McClellanBeato · McClellanB72 70 76►@trip 766-1Fair 8-110%► Steady72 70 76@trip 76B▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 86
Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 76 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 70 76
▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 86
Jockey Inoel Beato 31% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer Erin C McClellan
★ FASTEST WORK
Posted the fastest 3F work of the morning on Aug 29, in :35.40. Worked 4F in :47.40 on Oct 6, 2nd of 13 at the distance.
PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 4)
WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Aug 29 (3F in :35.40), 2 works in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/25 LRL 5½f D Alw n1x 4th/7 -6L 72 11-1 b L Steady 1/2;by-faders
9/6 TIM 4f D MSW Won/4 70 0.1-1 b L Dictated ins; handily
8/1 DEL 6f D MSW 2nd/7 -½L 76 2.6-1 L Off duel;4w;lug in

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	LRL	5½f D	Alw n1x	4th/7 -6L	72	11-1	b L	Steady 1/2;by-faders
9/6	TIM	4f D	MSW	Won/4	70	0.1-1	b L	Dictated ins; handily
8/1	DEL	6f D	MSW	2nd/7 -½L	76	2.6-1	L	Off duel;4w;lug in

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: #7 is the only true speed and could control it.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

LAUREL PARK · RACE 9

UPCOMING

Allowance · $48,000 purse

Field

7 runners

Purse

$48,000

Post

4:23 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#5 · 33%

Allowance, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, that have not won a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter.

Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 67.95

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #5 Hurrah (a presser/stalker, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 78 · 69 · 81. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #2 Blo By The Field at 6-1. Use #1 Kentucky Mule in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #6 PROFOUND CHANGE (9-5) — our number has it ranked #6.
#6 PROFOUND CHANGE — our #6 number, about right at the windows (26.3% to their 28.1%).
#5 HURRAH — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (24.8% to their 22.5%).
#1 KENTUCKY MULE — our #3 number, about right at the windows (12.7% to their 13.1%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #7 Charmed Hour; pressure from #1 Kentucky Mule; the shape helps #1 Kentucky Mule, #4 Bourbon N Lace, #5 Hurrah; and works against #7 Charmed Hour.

Lead

7Charmed Hour82

Press

1Kentucky Mule78

Stalk

5Hurrah894Bourbon N Lace77

6Profound Change812Blo By The Field803Nancy Mary78

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Hurrah

Charmed Hour

Kentucky Mule

Bourbon N Lace

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Blo By The Field

Nancy Mary

Profound Change

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