R10 Laurel Park · Claiming $7,500

5:03 PM ET · 6 Furlongs Dirt · $18,000 · 10 runners5:03 PM · 6f Dirt · 10 runners

Upcoming $18K · Claiming $7,500

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles
  1. 1Sheriff Ronnie▲J. Ramos · K. MageeRamos · MageeA86 70 59▲▲+22↕@trip 887-5Fair 5-227%▲▲ Big jump +2286 70 59 ↕@trip 88A▲ Last fig 86 at/above par 841

    Card model 27% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +22 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 59–86 · Best fig at today's trip 88 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 86 70 59

    ▲ Last fig 86 at/above par 84
    Jockey Jatniel Ramos 34% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet · Trainer Kieron Magee 36% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet ★ hot
    Also today · Trainer R2: Her Decision 12-1

    Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 86, with 84 next best. 3rd last time, 1 length back, in a field of 7.

    PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 6)
    WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 68d ago
    RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 7 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/15LRL5½f DClm 7k b3rd/7 -1L862.1-1b LPace;dug in;outfinishd
    9/6TIM-6½f DClm 5k bcWon/9704.2-1b LIns;drft upr;tenacious
    2/27LRL7f DOC 12k8th/8 -10L596.2-1b LRail;tired;bled;EQ AMB
  2. 2My Mamba▼S. Orellana · J. BertoneOrellana · BertoneC68 62 74►@trip 7430-1Fair 30-14%► Steady68 62 74@trip 74C▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 84

    Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 74 (9 tries) · Last 3 figs 68 62 74

    ▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 84
    Jockey Sebastian Orellana · Trainer Joann Bertone 13% career
    Also today · Jockey R4: Cool Spite 30-1 · Trainer R4: Cool Spite 30-1

    Drops from optional claiming to $7,500 claiming. A 74 is the high figure lately, short of the 84 par.

    PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 3)
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 181d back)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/16DEL6f DOC 12k6th/6 -8L6860-1b LTrail 2p; not threaten
    9/9PRX5½f DOC 10k5th/6 -15L6218-1b LInside; no response
    8/28MTH6f DAlw s4th/5 -2½L7436-1b LChased; bid; weakened
  3. 3Paralegal▼M. Chuan · M. CorreaChuan · CorreaB73 76 74►≡@trip 764-1Fair 7-113%► Steady73 76 74 ≡@trip 76B▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 84

    Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 67–76 · Best fig at today's trip 76 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 76 74

    ▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 84
    Jockey Martin Chuan 37% career 2-for-8 on dirt this meet (25%) · Trainer Maxine Correa 18% career
    Also today · Jockey R1: Ballykeefe 10-1, R3: Costa Amalfitana 10-1, R5: Mo Rewards 8-1, R8: Amazing Gracer 3-1 +1 more
    WON LAST

    Winner of an 8-horse $5,000 claiming race at DEL last time. Raises its level, $5,000 claiming last time and $7,500 claiming now.

    PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 8)
    WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Jun 11 (4F in :49.40), 1 work in 30d
    RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 3 starts here
    RECORD Martin Chuan from post 3 here: 1 win, 16 top-3 in 46 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/7DEL5½f DClm 5k bWon/8731.9-1b LVied inside; gamely 3p
    6/18DEL6f DClm 7k bWon/8763.8-1b LPace off rail; driving
    5/20DEL6f DClm 7k b3rd/8 -½L741.7-1b LSwift;yld1/4;fought on
  4. 4Nano ManE. Rosario · C. NamboRosario · NamboA82 77 70▲▲+9@trip 828-1Fair 10-19%▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best82 77 70@trip 82A

    Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #6 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 82 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 82 77 70

    Jockey Emanuel Rosario 33% career 1-for-16 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Cesar Nambo 17% career
    Also today · Jockey R1: Only Maria 30-1, R2: Lucky Coco 30-1, R6: Allaboutsassy 30-1, R7: Vekoma Moon 6-1 · Trainer this race: Prom Knight 6-1

    New trainer: Michael V Simone had it last time, Cesar Nambo now. Has moved up each time out, 70 to 77 to 82.

    EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.
    TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Closed willingly 6wd), and the figure already reflects it.
    WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 3d back

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/1DEL6f DClm 6k n1yc4th/8 -3¼L824.5-1b LClosed willingly 6wd
    9/23DEL6f DClm 5k bWon/9 by 37712-1b LWaited; 6 wide rally
    9/6TIM-6½f DClm 5k bWon/8 by 1705.6-1b LSqueezed start;3w trns
  5. 5Likebelivingnmagic▼▼C. Maragh · J. WooditMaragh · WooditC71 69 47▲▲+9↕@trip 7130-1Fair 30-14%▲▲ Big jump +971 69 47 ↕@trip 71C▼ Best fig 79 is 5+ under today's par 84▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

    Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 47–71 · Best fig at today's trip 71 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 69 47

    ▼ Best fig 79 is 5+ under today's par 84▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
    Jockey Christian Maragh 27% career · Trainer Joseph Woodit 21% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R7: Uncle Gene 6-1

    Figures are climbing: 47, 69, 71 over its last three. Sheds 12 pounds from its last start.

    PACE HELPS Several horses want the lead, which is the early heat a closer is looking for.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 40 days ago
    RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 5 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/17CT6½f DClm 5k b4th/8 -6L7134-1b LSave ground;improved
    10/4LRL1m DClm 7k b7th/8 -10L6917-1b LBrief foot; faded
    9/4TIM1m DClm 5k b6th/6 -12L479.7-1b LGave way;
  6. 6Prom KnightR. Rodriguez · C. NamboRodriguez · NamboA81 77 69▲+6@trip 816-1Fair 8-111%▲ Up +6 · career best81 77 69@trip 81A

    Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +6 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 81 (8 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 77 69

    Jockey Ronaldo Rodriguez 34% career 2-for-11 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Cesar Nambo 17% career
    Also today · Jockey R5: Kitten's Ploy 30-1, R6: Meredithslightning 10-1 · Trainer this race: Nano Man 8-1

    Dropped in well back early last out, 8th of 8 at the first call. Figures are climbing: 69, 77, 81 over its last three.

    PACE HELPS Hot early fractions are likely, and that sets up a late run.
    WORKS Average work schedule for this field (0 works in 30d, last 34d ago)
    RECORD 0 wins, 3 on the board from 7 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/1DEL6f DClm 6k n1y6th/8 -6¼L814.1-1b LCarried 8wd; evenly
    9/11DEL6f DOC 12k6th/8 -7¾L7730-1b LFlattened out
    8/8DEL6f DClm 6k n1y8th/8 -11L6912-1b LTrailed
  7. 7Spotted Bull★G. Rabadan · R. KlesarisRabadan · KlesarisB71 75 68►≡@trip 9115-1Fair 12-17%► Steady71 75 68 ≡@trip 91B★ Best at the trip 913

    Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 67–75 · Best fig at today's trip 91 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 75 68

    ★ Best at the trip 91
    Jockey Gerardo Rabadan 14% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet · Trainer Robert P Klesaris 29% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Trainer R3: Diva Ready 5-1
    60D LAYOFFCLASS DROP3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORK

    124 days since the last start, the longest layoff in here, so it needs the works to say it's ready. Posted the fastest 3F work of the morning on Oct 9, in :36.40.

    EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.
    TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Rail 3/8; 6wd 3/16. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.
    WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 9 (3F in :36.40), 3 works in 30d
    RECORD 2 wins, 2 on the board from 8 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    6/28LRL6f DClm 7k6th/7 -5½L7116-1b LRail 3/8;6wd 3/16
    6/11DEL6f DClm 10k b7th/9 -6¼L755.8-1b LRail; no factor
    5/30LRL5½f TOC 12k8th/10 -7¾L6827-1b LNo factor
  8. 8Silverbullettwenty▼▼LSR. Mena · S. DavisMena · DavisC76 68 64▲+7@trip 7630-1Fair 20-15%▲ Up +7 · career best76 68 64@trip 76C▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 84▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesLS

    Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +7 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 76 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 76 68 64

    ▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 84▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesLS

    Longshot read: 30-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 5% against a line of 3%. A read, not a bet.

    Jockey Raul E Mena 27% career 3-for-16 on dirt this meet (19%) · Trainer Samuel G Davis 33% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R3: Conquest Dancer 30-1, R3: Imperio Azteca 30-1, R9: Nancy Mary 8-1 · Trainer R8: Benevolent 30-1
    ★ FASTEST WORK

    Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 76 against a 84 par. The Mar 22 work, 5F in 1:01.40, was the best time at that distance that morning.

    PACE HELPS The front end should be a fight, and this one gets to wait on it.
    WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Mar 22 (5F in 1:01.40), 0 works in 30d
    RECORD 2 wins, 4 on the board from 12 starts here
    RECORD Raul E Mena from post 8 here: 8 wins, 17 top-3 in 49 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/15LRL5½f DClm 7k b6th/7 -5¾L7644-1LAsked rail; no rally
    9/18LRL6f DClm 7k n1y6th/8 -4¾L6842-1L4wd 1/4; no rally
    6/26LRL5½f DClm 7k b6th/9 -8¼L6411-1L4wd turn;7wd 1/8
  9. 9NorfieC. Hargrove · R. RichardsHargrove · RichardsC73 77 68►≡@trip 7410-1Fair 10-19%► Steady73 77 68 ≡@trip 74C2

    Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #2 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 68–77 · Best fig at today's trip 74 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 77 68

    Jockey Camila Hargrove 14% career · Trainer Renaldo Richards 25% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R1: Satisfied Mind 20-1, R5: Belts 'n Brooks 30-1, R6: Adios Marilyn 15-1, R6: For Keeps 12-1 +1 more · Trainer R5: Belts 'n Brooks 30-1
    0/4 board here

    A step up in company: $5,000 claiming before, $7,500 claiming today. Carries 112 pounds, 10 less than last time.

    PACE HELPS Hot early fractions are likely, and that sets up a late run.
    TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Bump st; 4p; no close), and the figure already reflects it.
    WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 40d ago
    RECORD Not on the board in 4 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/16DEL6f DClm 5k b6th/9 -6L7317-1LBump st; 4p; no close
    10/4LRL1m DClm 7k b5th/8 -5L779.3-1LChased 5wd;bid;falterd
    8/24MNR6f DClm 7k b7th/8 -12L686.4-1LPlayed no factor
  10. 10Win No Joke▲C. Lopez · S. SinghLopez · SinghB84 73 61▲▲+15↕@trip 716-1Fair 8-111%▲▲ Big jump +15 · career best84 73 61 ↕@trip 71B▲ Last fig 84 at/above par 84

    Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +15 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 61–84 · Best fig at today's trip 71 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 84 73 61

    ▲ Last fig 84 at/above par 84
    Jockey Carlos Eduardo Lopez 36% career 2-for-30 on dirt this meet (7%) · Trainer Somraj Singh 25% career 1-for-13 on dirt this meet (8%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: Crab Mentality 10-1, R2: Her Decision 12-1, R5: Fan Club 8-1, R6: Gotta Be Da Shoes 20-1 +1 more
    CLASS DROP0/5 board here

    0 for 9 at today's distance. Has moved up each time out, 61 to 73 to 84.

    EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.
    WORKS Routine prep: 0 works in 30d, last 34d ago
    RECORD Not on the board in 5 starts here
    RECORD Carlos Eduardo Lopez from post 10 here: 2 wins, 8 top-3 in 34 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/15LRL5½f DClm 7k b4th/7 -2½L8423-1b LSplit horses; mild bid
    10/2LRL5½f DClm 12k b5th/6 -1¾L7336-1b LRail trip; some run
    8/28TIM4f DClm 5k5th/6 -10L616.2-1b LNo factor; rail turn

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks
1 2 3
Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair
The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?
The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72
Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕
≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★
Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips
Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
¼½FINISHSTART6 FURLONGS · DIRT · main1-turn

LAUREL PARK · RACE 10

UPCOMING

Claiming $7,500

Field
10 runners
Purse
$18,000
Post
5:03 PM ET
Pace
Speed Duel
Card model top pick
#1 · 27%

Claiming $7,500, for 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 67.95

The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #1 Sheriff Ronnie (early speed, M/L 7-5). Recent figures: 86 · 70 · 59. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #9 Norfie at 10-1. Use #7 Spotted Bull in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

  • Market favourite #1 SHERIFF RONNIE (7-5) — our number agrees.
  • #1 SHERIFF RONNIE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (31.1% to their 33.0%).
  • #3 PARALEGAL — our #8 number, about right at the windows (14.7% to their 15.8%).
  • #6 PROM KNIGHT — our #4 number, about right at the windows (11.4% to their 11.3%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

  • Longshot the model rates above its line: #8 SILVERBULLETTWENTY (30-1) — our fair 3.4% is above the morning line's 2.6%; supported by: figures trending up 64→68→76 (project ~71)
Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #3 Paralegal; pressure from #1 Sheriff Ronnie, #2 My Mamba; the shape helps #5 Likebelivingnmagic, #6 Prom Knight, #8 Silverbullettwenty; and works against #1 Sheriff Ronnie, #2 My Mamba, #3 Paralegal.

Lead
3Paralegal931Sheriff Ronnie892My Mamba86
Press
7Spotted Bull82
Stalk
10Win No Joke814Nano Man79
Close
5Likebelivingnmagic888Silverbullettwenty829Norfie826Prom Knight78

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

3
Paralegal
93
1
Sheriff Ronnie
89
2
My Mamba
86
7
Spotted Bull
82
10
Win No Joke
81
4
Nano Man
79

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

5
Likebelivingnmagic
20
6
Prom Knight
14
9
Norfie
14
8
Silverbullettwenty
13
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