1Sheriff Ronnie▲J. Ramos · K. MageeRamos · MageeA86 70 59▲▲+22↕@trip 887-5Fair 5-227%
▲▲ Big jump +2286 70 59 ↕@trip 88A▲ Last fig 86 at/above par 841Card model 27% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +22 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 59–86 · Best fig at today's trip 88 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 86 70 59
▲ Last fig 86 at/above par 84Jockey Jatniel Ramos 34% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet · Trainer Kieron Magee 36% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet ★ hotBest Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 86, with 84 next best. 3rd last time, 1 length back, in a field of 7.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 6)WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 68d agoRECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 7 starts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/15 LRL 5½f D Clm 7k b 3rd/7 -1L 86 2.1-1 b L Pace;dug in;outfinishd 9/6 TIM -6½f D Clm 5k bc Won/9 70 4.2-1 b L Ins;drft upr;tenacious 2/27 LRL 7f D OC 12k 8th/8 -10L 59 6.2-1 b L Rail;tired;bled;EQ AMB 2My Mamba▼S. Orellana · J. BertoneOrellana · BertoneC68 62 74►@trip 7430-1Fair 30-14%
► Steady68 62 74@trip 74C▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 84Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 74 (9 tries) · Last 3 figs 68 62 74
▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 84Drops from optional claiming to $7,500 claiming. A 74 is the high figure lately, short of the 84 par.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 3)WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 181d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/16 DEL 6f D OC 12k 6th/6 -8L 68 60-1 b L Trail 2p; not threaten 9/9 PRX 5½f D OC 10k 5th/6 -15L 62 18-1 b L Inside; no response 8/28 MTH 6f D Alw s 4th/5 -2½L 74 36-1 b L Chased; bid; weakened 3Paralegal▼M. Chuan · M. CorreaChuan · CorreaB73 76 74►≡@trip 764-1Fair 7-113%
► Steady73 76 74 ≡@trip 76B▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 84Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 67–76 · Best fig at today's trip 76 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 76 74
▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 84Also today · Jockey R1: Ballykeefe 10-1, R3: Costa Amalfitana 10-1, R5: Mo Rewards 8-1, R8: Amazing Gracer 3-1 +1 moreWON LASTWinner of an 8-horse $5,000 claiming race at DEL last time. Raises its level, $5,000 claiming last time and $7,500 claiming now.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 8)WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Jun 11 (4F in :49.40), 1 work in 30dRECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 3 starts hereRECORD Martin Chuan from post 3 here: 1 win, 16 top-3 in 46 rides · 13% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/7 DEL 5½f D Clm 5k b Won/8 73 1.9-1 b L Vied inside; gamely 3p 6/18 DEL 6f D Clm 7k b Won/8 76 3.8-1 b L Pace off rail; driving 5/20 DEL 6f D Clm 7k b 3rd/8 -½L 74 1.7-1 b L Swift;yld1/4;fought on 4Nano ManE. Rosario · C. NamboRosario · NamboA82 77 70▲▲+9@trip 828-1Fair 10-19%
▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best82 77 70@trip 82ACard model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #6 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 82 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 82 77 70
Also today · Jockey R1: Only Maria 30-1, R2: Lucky Coco 30-1, R6: Allaboutsassy 30-1, R7: Vekoma Moon 6-1 · Trainer this race: Prom Knight 6-1New trainer: Michael V Simone had it last time, Cesar Nambo now. Has moved up each time out, 70 to 77 to 82.
EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Closed willingly 6wd), and the figure already reflects it.WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 3d backLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/1 DEL 6f D Clm 6k n1yc 4th/8 -3¼L 82 4.5-1 b L Closed willingly 6wd 9/23 DEL 6f D Clm 5k b Won/9 by 3 77 12-1 b L Waited; 6 wide rally 9/6 TIM -6½f D Clm 5k b Won/8 by 1 70 5.6-1 b L Squeezed start;3w trns 5Likebelivingnmagic▼▼C. Maragh · J. WooditMaragh · WooditC71 69 47▲▲+9↕@trip 7130-1Fair 30-14%
▲▲ Big jump +971 69 47 ↕@trip 71C▼ Best fig 79 is 5+ under today's par 84▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesCard model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 47–71 · Best fig at today's trip 71 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 69 47
▼ Best fig 79 is 5+ under today's par 84▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesFigures are climbing: 47, 69, 71 over its last three. Sheds 12 pounds from its last start.
PACE HELPS Several horses want the lead, which is the early heat a closer is looking for.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 40 days agoRECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 5 starts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/17 CT 6½f D Clm 5k b 4th/8 -6L 71 34-1 b L Save ground;improved 10/4 LRL 1m D Clm 7k b 7th/8 -10L 69 17-1 b L Brief foot; faded 9/4 TIM 1m D Clm 5k b 6th/6 -12L 47 9.7-1 b L Gave way; 6Prom KnightR. Rodriguez · C. NamboRodriguez · NamboA81 77 69▲+6@trip 816-1Fair 8-111%
▲ Up +6 · career best81 77 69@trip 81ACard model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +6 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 81 (8 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 77 69
Jockey Ronaldo Rodriguez 34% career 2-for-11 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Cesar Nambo 17% careerAlso today · Jockey R5: Kitten's Ploy 30-1, R6: Meredithslightning 10-1 · Trainer this race: Nano Man 8-1Dropped in well back early last out, 8th of 8 at the first call. Figures are climbing: 69, 77, 81 over its last three.
PACE HELPS Hot early fractions are likely, and that sets up a late run.WORKS Average work schedule for this field (0 works in 30d, last 34d ago)RECORD 0 wins, 3 on the board from 7 starts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/1 DEL 6f D Clm 6k n1y 6th/8 -6¼L 81 4.1-1 b L Carried 8wd; evenly 9/11 DEL 6f D OC 12k 6th/8 -7¾L 77 30-1 b L Flattened out 8/8 DEL 6f D Clm 6k n1y 8th/8 -11L 69 12-1 b L Trailed 7Spotted Bull★G. Rabadan · R. KlesarisRabadan · KlesarisB71 75 68►≡@trip 9115-1Fair 12-17%
► Steady71 75 68 ≡@trip 91B★ Best at the trip 913Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 67–75 · Best fig at today's trip 91 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 75 68
★ Best at the trip 91Jockey Gerardo Rabadan 14% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet · Trainer Robert P Klesaris 29% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet60D LAYOFFCLASS DROP3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORK124 days since the last start, the longest layoff in here, so it needs the works to say it's ready. Posted the fastest 3F work of the morning on Oct 9, in :36.40.
EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Rail 3/8; 6wd 3/16. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 9 (3F in :36.40), 3 works in 30dRECORD 2 wins, 2 on the board from 8 starts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 6/28 LRL 6f D Clm 7k 6th/7 -5½L 71 16-1 b L Rail 3/8;6wd 3/16 6/11 DEL 6f D Clm 10k b 7th/9 -6¼L 75 5.8-1 b L Rail; no factor 5/30 LRL 5½f T OC 12k 8th/10 -7¾L 68 27-1 b L No factor 8Silverbullettwenty▼▼LSR. Mena · S. DavisMena · DavisC76 68 64▲+7@trip 7630-1Fair 20-15%
▲ Up +7 · career best76 68 64@trip 76C▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 84▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesLSCard model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +7 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 76 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 76 68 64
▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 84▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesLSLongshot read: 30-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 5% against a line of 3%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Raul E Mena 27% career 3-for-16 on dirt this meet (19%) · Trainer Samuel G Davis 33% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meetAlso today · Jockey R3: Conquest Dancer 30-1, R3: Imperio Azteca 30-1, R9: Nancy Mary 8-1 · Trainer R8: Benevolent 30-1★ FASTEST WORKNeeds to move up: the best of its last five is 76 against a 84 par. The Mar 22 work, 5F in 1:01.40, was the best time at that distance that morning.
PACE HELPS The front end should be a fight, and this one gets to wait on it.WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Mar 22 (5F in 1:01.40), 0 works in 30dRECORD 2 wins, 4 on the board from 12 starts hereRECORD Raul E Mena from post 8 here: 8 wins, 17 top-3 in 49 rides · 13% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/15 LRL 5½f D Clm 7k b 6th/7 -5¾L 76 44-1 L Asked rail; no rally 9/18 LRL 6f D Clm 7k n1y 6th/8 -4¾L 68 42-1 L 4wd 1/4; no rally 6/26 LRL 5½f D Clm 7k b 6th/9 -8¼L 64 11-1 L 4wd turn;7wd 1/8 9NorfieC. Hargrove · R. RichardsHargrove · RichardsC73 77 68►≡@trip 7410-1Fair 10-19%
► Steady73 77 68 ≡@trip 74C2Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #2 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 68–77 · Best fig at today's trip 74 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 77 68
Also today · Jockey R1: Satisfied Mind 20-1, R5: Belts 'n Brooks 30-1, R6: Adios Marilyn 15-1, R6: For Keeps 12-1 +1 more · Trainer R5: Belts 'n Brooks 30-10/4 board hereA step up in company: $5,000 claiming before, $7,500 claiming today. Carries 112 pounds, 10 less than last time.
PACE HELPS Hot early fractions are likely, and that sets up a late run.TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Bump st; 4p; no close), and the figure already reflects it.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 40d agoRECORD Not on the board in 4 starts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/16 DEL 6f D Clm 5k b 6th/9 -6L 73 17-1 L Bump st; 4p; no close 10/4 LRL 1m D Clm 7k b 5th/8 -5L 77 9.3-1 L Chased 5wd;bid;falterd 8/24 MNR 6f D Clm 7k b 7th/8 -12L 68 6.4-1 L Played no factor 10Win No Joke▲C. Lopez · S. SinghLopez · SinghB84 73 61▲▲+15↕@trip 716-1Fair 8-111%
▲▲ Big jump +15 · career best84 73 61 ↕@trip 71B▲ Last fig 84 at/above par 84Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +15 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 61–84 · Best fig at today's trip 71 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 84 73 61
▲ Last fig 84 at/above par 84Jockey Carlos Eduardo Lopez 36% career 2-for-30 on dirt this meet (7%) · Trainer Somraj Singh 25% career 1-for-13 on dirt this meet (8%)Also today · Jockey R1: Crab Mentality 10-1, R2: Her Decision 12-1, R5: Fan Club 8-1, R6: Gotta Be Da Shoes 20-1 +1 moreCLASS DROP0/5 board here0 for 9 at today's distance. Has moved up each time out, 61 to 73 to 84.
EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.WORKS Routine prep: 0 works in 30d, last 34d agoRECORD Not on the board in 5 starts hereRECORD Carlos Eduardo Lopez from post 10 here: 2 wins, 8 top-3 in 34 rides · 12% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/15 LRL 5½f D Clm 7k b 4th/7 -2½L 84 23-1 b L Split horses; mild bid 10/2 LRL 5½f D Clm 12k b 5th/6 -1¾L 73 36-1 b L Rail trip; some run 8/28 TIM 4f D Clm 5k 5th/6 -10L 61 6.2-1 b L No factor; rail turn
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
LAUREL PARK · RACE 10
UPCOMINGClaiming $7,500
Claiming $7,500, for 3-year-olds and up.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 67.95
The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.
Our number tops on #1 Sheriff Ronnie (early speed, M/L 7-5). Recent figures: 86 · 70 · 59. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #9 Norfie at 10-1. Use #7 Spotted Bull in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #1 SHERIFF RONNIE (7-5) — our number agrees.
- #1 SHERIFF RONNIE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (31.1% to their 33.0%).
- #3 PARALEGAL — our #8 number, about right at the windows (14.7% to their 15.8%).
- #6 PROM KNIGHT — our #4 number, about right at the windows (11.4% to their 11.3%).
Model vs the morning line
- Longshot the model rates above its line: #8 SILVERBULLETTWENTY (30-1) — our fair 3.4% is above the morning line's 2.6%; supported by: figures trending up 64→68→76 (project ~71)
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.
Likely leader: #3 Paralegal; pressure from #1 Sheriff Ronnie, #2 My Mamba; the shape helps #5 Likebelivingnmagic, #6 Prom Knight, #8 Silverbullettwenty; and works against #1 Sheriff Ronnie, #2 My Mamba, #3 Paralegal.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
EXACTA; TRIFECTA & 10 CENT SUPERFECTA
BET OPTIONS
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