R8 Laurel Park · Maiden Claiming $35,000

3:50 PM ET · 1 1/16 Miles Turf · $37,000 · 11 runners3:50 PM · 1 1/16m Turf · 11 runners

Upcoming $37K · Maiden Claiming $35,000

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles
  1. 1Amazing Gracer★M. Chuan · J. NessChuan · NessA73 79 89▼▼-8@trip 893-1Fair 7-221%▼▼ Big drop -873 79 89@trip 89A★ Best at the trip 891

    Card model 21% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -8 · Best fig at today's trip 89 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 79 89

    ★ Best at the trip 89
    Jockey Martin Chuan 37% career 0-for-11 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Jamie Ness 41% career ★ 6-for-27 on turf this meet (22%) ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R1: Ballykeefe 10-1, R3: Costa Amalfitana 10-1, R5: Mo Rewards 8-1, R9: Profound Change 9-5 +1 more · Trainer R3: Costa Amalfitana 10-1, R4: Mila Candy 8-1, R5: Mo Rewards 8-1

    New trainer: Jorge R Abreu had it last time, Jamie Ness now. Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here.

    EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.
    WORKS Routine prep: 1 work in 30d, last 12d ago
    RECORD Martin Chuan from post 1 here: 3 wins, 17 top-3 in 45 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/30BEL1 1/16 DfsMd50000v4th/11 -½L731.0-1LChased 2p; kept on
    8/21SAR1 1/16 TfsMdSpWt5th/8 -1½L793.5-1LFractious;rank8F;stdy
    7/19SAR1 1/16 TfsMdSpWt2nd/12 -1½L893.4-1LIns-2p;swung5p1/4;gain
  2. 2Devilish Grin▲J. Toledo · A. GreenToledo · GreenA75 88 75▼-6@trip 884-1Fair 6-113%▼ Down -675 88 75@trip 88A▲ Last fig 75 at/above par 74

    Card model 13% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -6 · Best fig at today's trip 88 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 75 88 75

    ▲ Last fig 75 at/above par 74
    Jockey Jevian Toledo 33% career 1-for-35 on turf this meet (3%) · Trainer Amelia J Green 29% career 0-for-3 on turf this meet
    Also today · Jockey R4: Turkish Breeze 30-1, R7: Prince Of Peace 5-2, R9: Hurrah 5-2
    CLASS DROP

    Figure of 88 on the record sits above the 74 par. Last out was 2nd, 4 lengths behind the winner, in a 10-horse maiden claiming $30,000 race at BEL.

    PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
    TROUBLED TRIP 5w upper; closed well last out; the speed figure already reflects it.
    WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 41d ago
    RECORD Jevian Toledo from post 2 here: 34 wins, 88 top-3 in 187 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/14BEL1 1/16 TMCL 30k2nd/10 -4L752.2-1L5w upper; closed well
    9/25BEL1 1/16 TMCL 55k2nd/10 -3½L884.9-1LIns;2p5/16;mvd out1/8
    8/22SAR1 1/16 TMCL 55k8th/10 -3¼L756.8-1b L2-3p;behind foes late
  3. 3Linette▲M. Sanchez · T. WoolleySanchez · WoolleyB78 68@trip 7810-1Fair 8-111%—78 68@trip 78B▲ Last fig 78 at/above par 743

    Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip 78 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 78 68

    ▲ Last fig 78 at/above par 74
    Jockey Mychel J Sanchez 37% career 7-for-49 on turf this meet (14%) · Trainer Tim Woolley 26% career 1-for-9 on turf this meet (11%)
    Also today · Jockey R3: Sticker Shocked 15-1, R4: Mila Candy 8-1, R5: El De Larry 8-5
    CLASS UP

    Beaten 6½ lengths for 3rd in an 11-horse maiden race at LRL. A 78 top number against a 74 par, so it fits the level.

    EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 59 days ago
    RECORD Mychel J Sanchez from post 3 here: 19 wins, 51 top-3 in 113 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/10LRL1 1/16 TMCL 35k3rd/11 -6½L788.1-1Slow start;3w;mild bid
    9/13LRL1m TMCL 16k2nd/9 -1¾L6812-1Stumble 5/8;4-6wd
  4. 4Benevolent▼J. Briceno · S. DavisBriceno · DavisC54 6030-1Fair 50-12%—54 60C▼ Best fig 60 is 5+ under today's par 74

    Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 54 60

    ▼ Best fig 60 is 5+ under today's par 74
    Jockey Jean Gregor Briceno 28% career 1-for-16 on turf this meet (6%) · Trainer Samuel G Davis 33% career 0-for-4 on turf this meet
    Also today · Jockey R1: Lucky Lis 30-1, R5: Slippin Jimmy 15-1 · Trainer R10: Silverbullettwenty 30-1

    Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf. Stretches out from 6 furlongs to 1 1/16 miles.

    EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.
    WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 23d ago
    RECORD Jean Gregor Briceno from post 4 here: 7 wins, 39 top-3 in 97 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/14PRX6f DfsMdSpWt5th/6 -9½L549.6-1b LNever in contention
    8/18PEN6f DfsMdSpWt2nd/5 -6½L604.9-1b LUrged;angl 5w;fin well
  5. 5Panama CanalJ. Ruiz · H. MotionRuiz · MotionB64 71 67▼-6≡5-1Fair 7-112%▼ Down -664 71 67 ≡B

    Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -6 · ≡ Steady figures 64–73 · Last 3 figs 64 71 67

    Jockey Jorge Ruiz 31% career 6-for-41 on turf this meet (15%) · Trainer H Graham Motion 35% career 3-for-14 on turf this meet (21%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: Light De Night 5-1, R3: Quadra 4-1, R5: Souper Crunchy 9-2, R6: Paynted By Nancy 15-1 +1 more · Trainer R7: Frost Rocket 15-1
    4 WORKS IN 30 DAYSJky 16/57 from post 5

    Class relief: maiden special weight last time, maiden claiming $35,000 today. A 55-day gap since its last race.

    PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.
    TROUBLED TRIP Rank; took over; falterd last out; the speed figure already reflects it.
    WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 4 works in 30d, last 6d ago
    RECORD Jorge Ruiz from post 5 here: 16 wins, 29 top-3 in 57 rides · 19% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/5CNL1m TfrMdSpWt4th/8641.3-1b LRank;took over;falterd
    8/15CNL1m TfrMdSpWt2nd/6 -2L710.7-1b L2-3p;came4w;outfinishd
    7/2CNL1m TfrMdSpWt2nd/6 -2L673.1-1b L3-2p;4w upr;late rally
  6. 6FirestreakJ. Batista · A. AliBatista · AliC53 66 69▼▼-17@trip 7930-1Fair 50-12%▼▼ Big drop -1753 66 69@trip 79C

    Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -17 · Best fig at today's trip 79 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 53 66 69

    Jockey Jose A Batista 31% career 1-for-5 on turf this meet · Trainer Andrew Ali 18% career 0-for-2 on turf this meet
    Also today · Jockey R4: Drink This Cup 5-1

    Trending the wrong way on speed, 69 to 66 to 53. Still looking for the first win after 7 starts.

    PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 40 days ago
    RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 4 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/18LRL1m DMSW6th/6 -21L5342-1LMid-pack; empty late
    10/3LRL1m DMCL 35k5th/6 -7½L663.5-1LAsked btwn; no rally
    8/13DEL-7½f TMoc400003rd/8 -2¾L691.8-1L4wd 1/4; mild rally;
  7. 7Tiz My StandardsJ. Vargas · G. Williams Jr.Vargas · Williams Jr.C68 51 63▲+6↕30-1Fair 50-12%▲ Up +668 51 63 ↕C

    Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +6 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 51–73 · Last 3 figs 68 51 63

    Jockey Jose E Vargas 29% career 3-for-26 on turf this meet (12%) · Trainer Gary L Jr Williams 31% career 0-for-1 on turf this meet
    Also today · Jockey R1: Pinky Swear 20-1, R6: Forty Seven Smoker 12-1, R7: Time To Groove 4-1

    Goes 1 1/16 miles after running 5½ furlongs last time. Gets a new rider, Jose E Vargas replacing Mychel J Sanchez.

    PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 8)
    WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 3d back
    RECORD Jose E Vargas from post 7 here: 7 wins, 21 top-3 in 36 rides · 17% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/26LRL5½f TMCL 35k5th/8 -5L685.8-1b LRail;chased;weakened
    9/12CT6½f DMSW5th/7 -7L519.7-1b LPrompted pace;weakened
    8/23CNL5½f TMCL 40k4th/86313-1b LDuel turn;weakend late
  8. 8One Bad Habit▲LSC. Hargrove · R. KeithanHargrove · KeithanC59 56 70►@trip 5930-1Fair 30-13%► Steady59 56 70@trip 59C▲ Lone speed on early paceLS

    Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 59 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 59 56 70

    ▲ Lone speed on early paceLS

    Longshot read: 30-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 3% against a line of 2%. A read, not a bet.

    Jockey Camila Hargrove 14% career · Trainer Rachael Keithan 16% career
    Also today · Jockey R1: Satisfied Mind 20-1, R5: Belts 'n Brooks 30-1, R6: Adios Marilyn 15-1, R6: For Keeps 12-1 +1 more
    ★ FASTEST WORK

    Camila Hargrove takes over from Cesar Gonzalez in the saddle. Maiden through 7 starts.

    PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Shuffled back 5/16-1/4), and the figure already reflects it.
    WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 3F on Oct 11; 2 works in 30d

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/14BEL1 1/16 TMCL 30k7th/10 -12L5963-1b LShuffled back 5/16-1/4
    9/18BEL1¼m TMSW9th/10 -8¼L5690-1b LTracked 2-3w; tired
    8/30SAR1m TMSW10th/10 -6L7076-1b LSpurt;hard hold; tired
  9. 9About and Around▼V. Cheminaud · P. DeCheminaud · DeB66 6910-1Fair 15-16%—66 69B▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 74

    Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 66 69

    ▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 74
    Jockey Vincent Cheminaud 31% career 3-for-21 on turf this meet (14%) · Trainer Paz Horacio De 2-for-18 on turf this meet (11%)
    180D+ LAYOFFLASIX 1ST3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

    Freshened 324 days, longer than anything else in the field. Watch how its recent works look. Switches from dirt to turf.

    PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.
    WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 3 works in 30d and the last 8d back

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    12/10TP1m DMSW3rd/11 -4½L669.1-1bInside run; no kick
    10/23KEE1m TMSW10th/12 -10L6967-1Step slw;ins;no impact
  10. 10High Anxiety▲S. Russell · B. RussellRussell · RussellA80 77@trip 802-1Fair 3-125%—80 77@trip 80A▲ Last fig 80 at/above par 742

    Card model 25% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Best fig at today's trip 80 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 77

    ▲ Last fig 80 at/above par 74
    Jockey Sheldon Russell 39% career ★ 7-for-17 on turf this meet (41%), #1 of 30 · Trainer Brittany T Russell 43% career ★ 11-for-27 on turf this meet (41%), #1 of 27 ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R3: Diva Ready 5-1, R5: Drilling For Gold 2-1, R7: Harewood 9-2 · Trainer R5: Drilling For Gold 2-1, R7: Harewood 9-2

    An 80 in its last five clears the 74 par for this level. 2nd last time, 4 lengths back, in a field of 11.

    PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.
    WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Aug 7 (5F in 1:03.00), 1 work in 30d
    RECORD Sheldon Russell from post 10 here: 9 wins, 14 top-3 in 26 rides · 23% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/10LRL1 1/16 TMCL 35k2nd/11 -4L800.7-1L4wd 1/4; rallied
    8/28CNL1 1/16 TMSW3rd/9 -3¾L779.1-1LRail; 6wd 1/4; rallied
  11. 11Midwest Princess▼S. Gonzalez · B. DunnGonzalez · DunnC60 62 67►30-1Fair 50-12%► Steady60 62 67C▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 74

    Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #11 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 60 62 67

    ▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 74
    Jockey Silvestre Gonzalez 33% career · Trainer Benjamin J Dunn 30% career

    Was running in maiden special weight; today's maiden claiming $35,000 is an easier level on paper. Figures have slipped: 67, 62, 60 over its last three.

    PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 4)
    WORKS Average work schedule for this field (1 work in 30d, last 6d ago)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/6PRX6f DfsMdSpWt4th/6 -9L606.1-1b LPassed fading rivals
    7/13PRX1 1/16 DMCL 30k3rd/7 by nk625.6-1b LLed; vied; weakened
    4/13PRX1m DMCL 40k4th/6 -7L6710-1b LSteadied start

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks
1 2 3
Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair
The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?
The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72
Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕
≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★
Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips
Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
¼½¾FINISHSTART1 1/16 MILES · TURF · infield2-turn

LAUREL PARK · RACE 8

UPCOMING

Maiden Claiming $35,000

Field
11 runners
Purse
$37,000
Post
3:50 PM ET
Pace
Pressed Pace
Card model top pick
#1 · 21%

Maiden Claiming, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.

Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.

● Track record at 1 1/16 Miles: 100.22

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #1 Amazing Gracer (a closer, M/L 3-1). Recent figures: 73 · 79 · 89. Backup is #10 High Anxiety at 2-1. Use #3 Linette in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

  • Market favourite #10 HIGH ANXIETY (2-1) — our number has it ranked #2.
  • #10 HIGH ANXIETY — our #2 number, about right at the windows (25.7% to their 25.8%).
  • #1 AMAZING GRACER — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (20.4% to their 19.3%).
  • #2 DEVILISH GRIN — our #5 number, about right at the windows (14.6% to their 15.5%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

  • Longshot the model rates above its line: #3 LINETTE (10-1) — our fair 8.2% is above the morning line's 7.0%; supported by: 4-way speed duel up front — meltdown sets up the closer
Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #7 Tiz My Standards; pressure from #11 Midwest Princess, #2 Devilish Grin; the shape helps #2 Devilish Grin, #5 Panama Canal, #6 Firestreak; and works against #7 Tiz My Standards, #8 One Bad Habit, #11 Midwest Princess.

Lead
7Tiz My Standards8811Midwest Princess80
Press
2Devilish Grin816Firestreak745Panama Canal70
Stalk
9About And Around8510High Anxiety78
Close
1Amazing Gracer804Benevolent713Linette70
No style yet
8One Bad Habit90

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

7
Tiz My Standards
88
9
About And Around
85
2
Devilish Grin
81
11
Midwest Princess
80
10
High Anxiety
78
6
Firestreak
74
5
Panama Canal
70

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

3
Linette
19
4
Benevolent
19
1
Amazing Gracer
0
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