1Amazing Gracer★M. Chuan · J. NessChuan · NessA73 79 89▼▼-8@trip 893-1Fair 7-221%
▼▼ Big drop -873 79 89@trip 89A★ Best at the trip 891Card model 21% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -8 · Best fig at today's trip 89 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 79 89
★ Best at the trip 89Jockey Martin Chuan 37% career 0-for-11 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Jamie Ness 41% career ★ 6-for-27 on turf this meet (22%) ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R1: Ballykeefe 10-1, R3: Costa Amalfitana 10-1, R5: Mo Rewards 8-1, R9: Profound Change 9-5 +1 more · Trainer R3: Costa Amalfitana 10-1, R4: Mila Candy 8-1, R5: Mo Rewards 8-1New trainer: Jorge R Abreu had it last time, Jamie Ness now. Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here.
EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.WORKS Routine prep: 1 work in 30d, last 12d agoRECORD Martin Chuan from post 1 here: 3 wins, 17 top-3 in 45 rides · 13% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/30 BEL 1 1/16 D fsMd50000v 4th/11 -½L 73 1.0-1 L Chased 2p; kept on 8/21 SAR 1 1/16 T fsMdSpWt 5th/8 -1½L 79 3.5-1 L Fractious;rank8F;stdy 7/19 SAR 1 1/16 T fsMdSpWt 2nd/12 -1½L 89 3.4-1 L Ins-2p;swung5p1/4;gain 2Devilish Grin▲J. Toledo · A. GreenToledo · GreenA75 88 75▼-6@trip 884-1Fair 6-113%
▼ Down -675 88 75@trip 88A▲ Last fig 75 at/above par 74Card model 13% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -6 · Best fig at today's trip 88 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 75 88 75
▲ Last fig 75 at/above par 74Jockey Jevian Toledo 33% career 1-for-35 on turf this meet (3%) · Trainer Amelia J Green 29% career 0-for-3 on turf this meetCLASS DROPFigure of 88 on the record sits above the 74 par. Last out was 2nd, 4 lengths behind the winner, in a 10-horse maiden claiming $30,000 race at BEL.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.TROUBLED TRIP 5w upper; closed well last out; the speed figure already reflects it.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 41d agoRECORD Jevian Toledo from post 2 here: 34 wins, 88 top-3 in 187 rides · 16% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/14 BEL 1 1/16 T MCL 30k 2nd/10 -4L 75 2.2-1 L 5w upper; closed well 9/25 BEL 1 1/16 T MCL 55k 2nd/10 -3½L 88 4.9-1 L Ins;2p5/16;mvd out1/8 8/22 SAR 1 1/16 T MCL 55k 8th/10 -3¼L 75 6.8-1 b L 2-3p;behind foes late 3Linette▲M. Sanchez · T. WoolleySanchez · WoolleyB78 68@trip 7810-1Fair 8-111%
—78 68@trip 78B▲ Last fig 78 at/above par 743Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip 78 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 78 68
▲ Last fig 78 at/above par 74Jockey Mychel J Sanchez 37% career 7-for-49 on turf this meet (14%) · Trainer Tim Woolley 26% career 1-for-9 on turf this meet (11%)CLASS UPBeaten 6½ lengths for 3rd in an 11-horse maiden race at LRL. A 78 top number against a 74 par, so it fits the level.
EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 59 days agoRECORD Mychel J Sanchez from post 3 here: 19 wins, 51 top-3 in 113 rides · 16% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/10 LRL 1 1/16 T MCL 35k 3rd/11 -6½L 78 8.1-1 Slow start;3w;mild bid 9/13 LRL 1m T MCL 16k 2nd/9 -1¾L 68 12-1 Stumble 5/8;4-6wd 4Benevolent▼J. Briceno · S. DavisBriceno · DavisC54 6030-1Fair 50-12%
—54 60C▼ Best fig 60 is 5+ under today's par 74Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 54 60
▼ Best fig 60 is 5+ under today's par 74Jockey Jean Gregor Briceno 28% career 1-for-16 on turf this meet (6%) · Trainer Samuel G Davis 33% career 0-for-4 on turf this meetAlso today · Jockey R1: Lucky Lis 30-1, R5: Slippin Jimmy 15-1 · Trainer R10: Silverbullettwenty 30-1Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf. Stretches out from 6 furlongs to 1 1/16 miles.
EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 23d agoRECORD Jean Gregor Briceno from post 4 here: 7 wins, 39 top-3 in 97 rides · 10% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/14 PRX 6f D fsMdSpWt 5th/6 -9½L 54 9.6-1 b L Never in contention 8/18 PEN 6f D fsMdSpWt 2nd/5 -6½L 60 4.9-1 b L Urged;angl 5w;fin well 5Panama CanalJ. Ruiz · H. MotionRuiz · MotionB64 71 67▼-6≡5-1Fair 7-112%
▼ Down -664 71 67 ≡BCard model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -6 · ≡ Steady figures 64–73 · Last 3 figs 64 71 67
Jockey Jorge Ruiz 31% career 6-for-41 on turf this meet (15%) · Trainer H Graham Motion 35% career 3-for-14 on turf this meet (21%)Also today · Jockey R1: Light De Night 5-1, R3: Quadra 4-1, R5: Souper Crunchy 9-2, R6: Paynted By Nancy 15-1 +1 more · Trainer R7: Frost Rocket 15-14 WORKS IN 30 DAYSJky 16/57 from post 5Class relief: maiden special weight last time, maiden claiming $35,000 today. A 55-day gap since its last race.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.TROUBLED TRIP Rank; took over; falterd last out; the speed figure already reflects it.WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 4 works in 30d, last 6d agoRECORD Jorge Ruiz from post 5 here: 16 wins, 29 top-3 in 57 rides · 19% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/5 CNL 1m T frMdSpWt 4th/8 64 1.3-1 b L Rank;took over;falterd 8/15 CNL 1m T frMdSpWt 2nd/6 -2L 71 0.7-1 b L 2-3p;came4w;outfinishd 7/2 CNL 1m T frMdSpWt 2nd/6 -2L 67 3.1-1 b L 3-2p;4w upr;late rally 6FirestreakJ. Batista · A. AliBatista · AliC53 66 69▼▼-17@trip 7930-1Fair 50-12%
▼▼ Big drop -1753 66 69@trip 79CCard model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -17 · Best fig at today's trip 79 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 53 66 69
Jockey Jose A Batista 31% career 1-for-5 on turf this meet · Trainer Andrew Ali 18% career 0-for-2 on turf this meetTrending the wrong way on speed, 69 to 66 to 53. Still looking for the first win after 7 starts.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 40 days agoRECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 4 starts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/18 LRL 1m D MSW 6th/6 -21L 53 42-1 L Mid-pack; empty late 10/3 LRL 1m D MCL 35k 5th/6 -7½L 66 3.5-1 L Asked btwn; no rally 8/13 DEL -7½f T Moc40000 3rd/8 -2¾L 69 1.8-1 L 4wd 1/4; mild rally; 7Tiz My StandardsJ. Vargas · G. Williams Jr.Vargas · Williams Jr.C68 51 63▲+6↕30-1Fair 50-12%
▲ Up +668 51 63 ↕CCard model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +6 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 51–73 · Last 3 figs 68 51 63
Jockey Jose E Vargas 29% career 3-for-26 on turf this meet (12%) · Trainer Gary L Jr Williams 31% career 0-for-1 on turf this meetGoes 1 1/16 miles after running 5½ furlongs last time. Gets a new rider, Jose E Vargas replacing Mychel J Sanchez.
PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 8)WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 3d backRECORD Jose E Vargas from post 7 here: 7 wins, 21 top-3 in 36 rides · 17% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/26 LRL 5½f T MCL 35k 5th/8 -5L 68 5.8-1 b L Rail;chased;weakened 9/12 CT 6½f D MSW 5th/7 -7L 51 9.7-1 b L Prompted pace;weakened 8/23 CNL 5½f T MCL 40k 4th/8 63 13-1 b L Duel turn;weakend late 8One Bad Habit▲LSC. Hargrove · R. KeithanHargrove · KeithanC59 56 70►@trip 5930-1Fair 30-13%
► Steady59 56 70@trip 59C▲ Lone speed on early paceLSCard model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 59 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 59 56 70
▲ Lone speed on early paceLSLongshot read: 30-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 3% against a line of 2%. A read, not a bet.
Also today · Jockey R1: Satisfied Mind 20-1, R5: Belts 'n Brooks 30-1, R6: Adios Marilyn 15-1, R6: For Keeps 12-1 +1 more★ FASTEST WORKCamila Hargrove takes over from Cesar Gonzalez in the saddle. Maiden through 7 starts.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Shuffled back 5/16-1/4), and the figure already reflects it.WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 3F on Oct 11; 2 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/14 BEL 1 1/16 T MCL 30k 7th/10 -12L 59 63-1 b L Shuffled back 5/16-1/4 9/18 BEL 1¼m T MSW 9th/10 -8¼L 56 90-1 b L Tracked 2-3w; tired 8/30 SAR 1m T MSW 10th/10 -6L 70 76-1 b L Spurt;hard hold; tired 9About and Around▼V. Cheminaud · P. DeCheminaud · DeB66 6910-1Fair 15-16%
—66 69B▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 74Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 66 69
▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 74Jockey Vincent Cheminaud 31% career 3-for-21 on turf this meet (14%) · Trainer Paz Horacio De 2-for-18 on turf this meet (11%)180D+ LAYOFFLASIX 1ST3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSFreshened 324 days, longer than anything else in the field. Watch how its recent works look. Switches from dirt to turf.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 3 works in 30d and the last 8d backLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 12/10 TP 1m D MSW 3rd/11 -4½L 66 9.1-1 b Inside run; no kick 10/23 KEE 1m T MSW 10th/12 -10L 69 67-1 Step slw;ins;no impact 10High Anxiety▲S. Russell · B. RussellRussell · RussellA80 77@trip 802-1Fair 3-125%
—80 77@trip 80A▲ Last fig 80 at/above par 742Card model 25% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Best fig at today's trip 80 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 77
▲ Last fig 80 at/above par 74Jockey Sheldon Russell 39% career ★ 7-for-17 on turf this meet (41%), #1 of 30 · Trainer Brittany T Russell 43% career ★ 11-for-27 on turf this meet (41%), #1 of 27 ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R3: Diva Ready 5-1, R5: Drilling For Gold 2-1, R7: Harewood 9-2 · Trainer R5: Drilling For Gold 2-1, R7: Harewood 9-2An 80 in its last five clears the 74 par for this level. 2nd last time, 4 lengths back, in a field of 11.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Aug 7 (5F in 1:03.00), 1 work in 30dRECORD Sheldon Russell from post 10 here: 9 wins, 14 top-3 in 26 rides · 23% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/10 LRL 1 1/16 T MCL 35k 2nd/11 -4L 80 0.7-1 L 4wd 1/4; rallied 8/28 CNL 1 1/16 T MSW 3rd/9 -3¾L 77 9.1-1 L Rail; 6wd 1/4; rallied 11Midwest Princess▼S. Gonzalez · B. DunnGonzalez · DunnC60 62 67►30-1Fair 50-12%
► Steady60 62 67C▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 74Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #11 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 60 62 67
▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 74Was running in maiden special weight; today's maiden claiming $35,000 is an easier level on paper. Figures have slipped: 67, 62, 60 over its last three.
PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 4)WORKS Average work schedule for this field (1 work in 30d, last 6d ago)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/6 PRX 6f D fsMdSpWt 4th/6 -9L 60 6.1-1 b L Passed fading rivals 7/13 PRX 1 1/16 D MCL 30k 3rd/7 by nk 62 5.6-1 b L Led; vied; weakened 4/13 PRX 1m D MCL 40k 4th/6 -7L 67 10-1 b L Steadied start
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
LAUREL PARK · RACE 8
UPCOMINGMaiden Claiming $35,000
Maiden Claiming, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.
Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.
● Track record at 1 1/16 Miles: 100.22
The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.
Our number tops on #1 Amazing Gracer (a closer, M/L 3-1). Recent figures: 73 · 79 · 89. Backup is #10 High Anxiety at 2-1. Use #3 Linette in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #10 HIGH ANXIETY (2-1) — our number has it ranked #2.
- #10 HIGH ANXIETY — our #2 number, about right at the windows (25.7% to their 25.8%).
- #1 AMAZING GRACER — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (20.4% to their 19.3%).
- #2 DEVILISH GRIN — our #5 number, about right at the windows (14.6% to their 15.5%).
Model vs the morning line
- Longshot the model rates above its line: #3 LINETTE (10-1) — our fair 8.2% is above the morning line's 7.0%; supported by: 4-way speed duel up front — meltdown sets up the closer
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #7 Tiz My Standards; pressure from #11 Midwest Princess, #2 Devilish Grin; the shape helps #2 Devilish Grin, #5 Panama Canal, #6 Firestreak; and works against #7 Tiz My Standards, #8 One Bad Habit, #11 Midwest Princess.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
EXACTA; TRIFECTA & DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 8-9) / 10 CENT SUPERFECTA
50 CENT PICK 3 (RACES 8-9-10)
BET OPTIONS
WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta