R4 Laurel Park · Ratings Optional Claiming

1:46 PM ET · 6 Furlongs Dirt · $29,000 · 8 runners1:46 PM · 6f Dirt · 8 runners

Upcoming $29K · Ratings Optional Claiming

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Drink This CupJ. Batista · M. StidhamBatista · StidhamB78 86 79►5-1Fair 7-112%► Steady78 86 79B

Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 78 86 79

Jockey Jose A Batista 31% career 1-for-5 on dirt this meet · Trainer Michael Stidham 36% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R8: Firestreak 30-1

Switches from turf to dirt. Class relief: optional claiming last time, unknown today.

PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 3)

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 3F on Aug 8; 2 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/7	DEL	5f T	OC 32k b	5th/8 -2½L	78	15-1	b L	Tracked ins; no rally
8/30	TIM	-6½f D	OC 30k n2x	2nd/4 -3L	86	4.8-1	b L	Brk in;bmp;3w 1/8;game
7/24	DEL	5½f D	OC 32k n2x	5th/7 -4½L	79	4.3-1	L	Fanned 4w;no rally

2Spencer TiaraC. Marquez · H. McMahonMarquez · McMahonA66 93 84▼▼-21↕@trip 936-1Fair 7-113%▼▼ Big drop -2166 93 84 ↕@trip 93A3

Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -21 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 66–93 · Best fig at today's trip 93 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 66 93 84

Jockey Charlie Marquez 29% career ★ 4-for-16 on dirt this meet (25%), #3 of 26 · Trainer Hugh I McMahon 5-for-12 on dirt this meet (42%), #2 of 21

Also today · Jockey R3: Wise And Elegant 15-1 · Trainer R3: Wise And Elegant 15-1

60D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORK6/8 board here

Back after 98 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. The longest gap in the field. Was running in optional claiming; today's unknown is an easier level on paper.

PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 8)

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Sent; rail; faltered. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Oct 6; 3 works in 30d

RECORD 2 wins, 6 on the board from 8 starts here

RECORD Charlie Marquez from post 2 here: 2 wins, 5 top-3 in 16 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
7/24	DEL	5½f D	OC 32k n2x	7th/7 -5¾L	66	3.1-1	b L	Sent; rail; faltered
6/5	LRL	6f D	Alw n1x	Won/6	93	2.6-1	b L	Rail;drew out;driving
4/17	LRL	6f D	Alw n1x	2nd/6	84	2.8-1	b L	Ins;met bid;grudgingly

3Mila CandyM. Sanchez · J. NessSanchez · NessB70 75 76▼-5≡@trip 908-1Fair 10-19%▼ Down -570 75 76 ≡@trip 90B
Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -5 · ≡ Steady figures 70–76 · Best fig at today's trip 90 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 70 75 76
Jockey Mychel J Sanchez 37% career ★ 7-for-30 on dirt this meet (23%) · Trainer Jamie Ness 41% career 6-for-35 on dirt this meet (17%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R3: Sticker Shocked 15-1, R5: El De Larry 8-5, R8: Linette 10-1 · Trainer R3: Costa Amalfitana 10-1, R5: Mo Rewards 8-1, R8: Amazing Gracer 3-1
Trending the wrong way on speed, 76 to 75 to 70. Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 5)
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 35d ago
RECORD Mychel J Sanchez from post 3 here: 19 wins, 51 top-3 in 113 rides · 16% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/10 LRL 5½f T ROC 1-65 8th/9 -9L 70 5.0-1 L 4wd 1/4; gave way
9/5 CNL 6f D Alw n1x 7th/7 -5½L 75 2.1-1 L Headed;steady retreat
8/27 CNL 5½f T Alw n1x 4th/7 76 11-1 L Pce 2w-ins;wknd

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	LRL	5½f T	ROC 1-65	8th/9 -9L	70	5.0-1	L	4wd 1/4; gave way
9/5	CNL	6f D	Alw n1x	7th/7 -5½L	75	2.1-1	L	Headed;steady retreat
8/27	CNL	5½f T	Alw n1x	4th/7	76	11-1	L	Pce 2w-ins;wknd

4Cool SpiteS. Orellana · J. BertoneOrellana · BertoneC63 57 64►≡@trip 7130-1Fair 30-13%► Steady63 57 64 ≡@trip 71C

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 57–64 · Best fig at today's trip 71 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 63 57 64

Jockey Sebastian Orellana · Trainer Joann Bertone 13% career

Also today · Jockey R10: My Mamba 30-1 · Trainer R10: My Mamba 30-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Beaten 3½ lengths for 3rd in an 8-horse optional claiming race at DEL. 0 for 7 at today's distance.

EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 86d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/16	DEL	5½f D	OC 16k	3rd/8 -3½L	63	10-1	L	Trail;4p turn;kept on
9/19	MED	1m T	Alw n1x	6th/8 -8½L	57	30-1	L	Stalked 2w; tired
9/5	MTH	6f D	Clm 7k n2lc	2nd/7 -5½L	64	0.4-1	L	Step slow; rallied 2d

5Madonna of LoretoF. Boyce · L. GaudetBoyce · GaudetA84 85 87▼-3≡@trip 859-5Fair 5-228%▼ Down -384 85 87 ≡@trip 85A1

Card model 28% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -3 · ≡ Steady figures 84–88 · Best fig at today's trip 85 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 84 85 87

Jockey Forest Boyce 32% career 3-for-9 on dirt this meet (33%), #1 of 26 · Trainer Lacey Gaudet 30% career 0-for-9 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Americandreammaker 9-2, R5: Lomax 20-1, R6: Take On The Jewels 6-1 · Trainer R9: Kentucky Mule 5-1

★ FASTEST WORK

A big drop, optional claiming to unknown, and worth asking why. Jockey switch: Luis Saez last out, Forest Boyce today.

PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 5)

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Pressed 4w; faded 5w1/4. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 27 (3F in :38.40), 2 works in 30d

RECORD Forest Boyce from post 5 here: 14 wins, 40 top-3 in 98 rides · 15% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/7	KEE	6f D	OC 100k n3x	5th/6 -4L	84	8.0-1	b L	Pressed 4w;faded 5w1/4
9/17	CD	6f D	OC 80k n2x	Won/7	85	3.1-1	b L	Pressed; prevailed
8/13	CNL	7½f D	OC 50k n2x	4th/5 by nk	87	6.6-1	b L	Vied btwn;4w1/4p;faded

6In My Memories▲★J. Barbosa · A. FarriorBarbosa · FarriorA75 61 100▼-5↕@trip 1005-2Fair 4-120%▼ Down -575 61 100 ↕@trip 100A▲ Lone speed on early pace★ Best at the trip 1002

Card model 20% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -5 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 61–100 · Best fig at today's trip 100 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 75 61 100

▲ Lone speed on early pace★ Best at the trip 100

Jockey Jeiron Barbosa 30% career 4-for-35 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Anthony Farrior 41% career 1-for-7 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Sin Boldly 3-1, R2: Paris By Night 6-5, R3: Integrity 10-1, R6: It's Fine 7-2 +1 more · Trainer R6: It's Fine 7-2

Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 100, with 93 next best. Drops from optional claiming to unknown.

EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.

WORKS Routine prep: 1 work in 30d, last 15d ago

RECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 4 starts here

RECORD Jeiron Barbosa from post 6 here: 25 wins, 69 top-3 in 139 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/27	LRL	5½f D	OC 55k b	4th/4 -2L	75	4.2-1	b L	Rail; speed; weakened
9/6	TIM	-6½f D	OC 50k n1y	5th/5 -2½L	61	3.5-1	b L	Bump start;dueled
1/10	LRL	6f D	OC 40k n2x	Won/7	100	12-1	b L	2wd bid; driving

7Eclair BlancE. Ruiz · M. MooreRuiz · MooreB84 75 77▲▲+9@trip 776-1Fair 7-112%▲▲ Big jump +984 75 77@trip 77B
Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · Best fig at today's trip 77 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 84 75 77
Jockey Eliseo Ruiz 31% career 1-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer Michael M Moore 33% career 1-for-4 on dirt this meet
CLASS UP
2 wins from 4 starts at this distance. 3rd last time, 3½ lengths back, in a field of 8.
EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.
WORKS Routine prep: 1 work in 30d, last 11d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/30 PRX 6½f D Clm 25k 3rd/8 -3½L 84 9.0-1 L Between; closed gamely
9/19 PRX 6½f D OC 30k 10th/14 -10L 75 43-1 L Lacked response
8/14 PEN 6f D RHP 20-40 Won/3 77 0.1-1 L Stalk 2w;romped

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/30	PRX	6½f D	Clm 25k	3rd/8 -3½L	84	9.0-1	L	Between; closed gamely
9/19	PRX	6½f D	OC 30k	10th/14 -10L	75	43-1	L	Lacked response
8/14	PEN	6f D	RHP 20-40	Won/3	77	0.1-1	L	Stalk 2w;romped

8Turkish BreezeLSJ. Toledo · A. DelgadoToledo · DelgadoC64 71 73▼▼-10@trip 8330-1Fair 20-15%▼▼ Big drop -1064 71 73@trip 83CLS

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -10 · Best fig at today's trip 83 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 64 71 73

Longshot read: 30-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 5% against a line of 3%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Jevian Toledo 33% career ★ 6-for-25 on dirt this meet (24%) · Trainer Alberto Delgado 37% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R7: Prince Of Peace 5-2, R8: Devilish Grin 4-1, R9: Hurrah 5-2

3/6 board here

Figures have slipped: 73, 71, 64 over its last three. Fastest 3F work of its morning on Jul 31 (:35.40), a sign it is training forwardly.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 3)

TROUBLED TRIP Chsd 3-5w; flattened last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 40d back)

RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 6 starts here

RECORD Jevian Toledo from post 8 here: 17 wins, 49 top-3 in 117 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	LRL	5½f D	OC 35k	4th/7 -4¼L	64	10-1	L	Chsd 3-5w; flattened
10/2	LRL	6f D	OC 40k	4th/5 -5L	71	12-1	L	Rushed;chase ins;empty
8/29	CNL	5½f T	frHandicap	7th/8 -7½L	73	32-1	b L	Pushd in brk;fade rail

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (7 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

LAUREL PARK · RACE 4

UPCOMING

Ratings Optional Claiming

Field

8 runners

Purse

$29,000

Post

1:46 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Card model top pick

#5 · 28%

Claiming $20,000, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 67.95

The shape is the story here: 5 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #5 Madonna Of Loreto (early speed, M/L 9-5). Recent figures: 84 · 85 · 87. Backup is #6 In My Memories at 5-2. Use #2 Spencer Tiara in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #5 MADONNA OF LORETO (9-5) — our number agrees.
#5 MADONNA OF LORETO — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (28.0% to their 28.1%).
#6 IN MY MEMORIES — our #2 number, about right at the windows (22.4% to their 22.5%).
#1 DRINK THIS CUP — our #5 number, about right at the windows (12.5% to their 13.1%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

Longshot the model rates above its line: #8 TURKISH BREEZE (30-1) — our fair 3.1% is above the morning line's 2.5%; supported by: last out: "Chsd 3-5w; flattened" — trouble the figure under-credits

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #1 Drink This Cup; pressure from #2 Spencer Tiara, #5 Madonna Of Loreto; and works against #1 Drink This Cup, #2 Spencer Tiara, #3 Mila Candy.

Lead

1Drink This Cup962Spencer Tiara935Madonna Of Loreto928Turkish Breeze913Mila Candy81

Press

6In My Memories1017Eclair Blanc82

Stalk

4Cool Spite83

none

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

In My Memories

101

Drink This Cup

Spencer Tiara

Madonna Of Loreto

Turkish Breeze

Cool Spite

Eclair Blanc

Mila Candy

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

In My Memories

Turkish Breeze

Mila Candy

Eclair Blanc

Madonna Of Loreto

Spencer Tiara

Cool Spite

Drink This Cup

Bet types offeredwager menu

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

EXACTA; TRIFECTA & DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 4-5) /10 CENT SUPERFECTA

50 CENT PICK 3 (RACES 4-5-6) / 50 CENT PICK 4 (RACES 4-5-6-7)

TBredIQ shows analysis only. We don’t build tickets or suggest amounts.

BET OPTIONS

WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta

Wagers offered on this race — analysis only, no stake sizing.