1I'mwishingonastarD. Centeno · M. DiniCenteno · DiniC65 72 77▼▼-10@trip 7710-1Fair 15-16%
▼▼ Big drop -1065 72 77@trip 77CCard model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -10 · Best fig at today's trip 77 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 65 72 77
Jockey D E Centeno 35% career 1-for-9 on turf this meet (11%) · Trainer Mike Dini 31% career 1-for-3 on turf this meet ★ hot◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLEWas running in allowance; today's unknown is an easier level on paper. Trending the wrong way on speed, 77 to 72 to 65.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 7)TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Fractious; bumped st), and the figure already reflects it.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 42d agoRECORD D E Centeno from post 1 here: 4 wins, 10 top-3 in 26 rides · 12% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/2 MED 5f T Alw n1x 4th/9 -4L 65 2.6-1 b L Fractious; bumped st 8/22 MTH 5½f T OC 20k n1x 6th/7 -2½L 72 5.9-1 b L Stalked 2w; weakened 8/2 MTH 5½f T OC 20k n1x 2nd/5 77 6.4-1 b L Set pace; held 2nd 2Wise and Elegant▼C. Marquez · H. McMahonMarquez · McMahonC63 73 77▼▼-11@trip 8215-1Fair 15-16%
▼▼ Big drop -1163 73 77@trip 82C▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesCard model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -11 · Best fig at today's trip 82 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 63 73 77
▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesJockey Charlie Marquez 29% career 4-for-22 on turf this meet (18%) · Trainer Hugh I McMahon 3-for-13 on turf this meet (23%)★ FASTEST WORKLast race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf. Figures have slipped: 77, 73, 63 over its last three.
EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 8 (4F in :48.40), 1 work in 30dRECORD 2 wins, 4 on the board from 9 starts hereRECORD Charlie Marquez from post 2 here: 2 wins, 5 top-3 in 16 rides · 9% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/16 LRL 5½f D Alw n1x 4th/5 -8L 63 5.3-1 b L 3-deep turn;no factor 9/4 CNL 5½f T frAlw91500n1x 4th/9 -1¼L 73 11-1 b L Std'd;3-4w;7w upr 8/8 CNL 5½f T frAlw93900n1x 5th/11 -½L 77 5.1-1 b L Stalk 2-3w;wknd 3Americandreammaker▲F. Boyce · P. CapuanoBoyce · CapuanoA73 82 84▼▼-109-2Fair 7-113%
▼▼ Big drop -1073 82 84A▲ Rider upgrade (26% vs 13%) cutting back to a sprint2Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -10 · Last 3 figs 73 82 84
▲ Rider upgrade (26% vs 13%) cutting back to a sprintJockey Forest Boyce 32% career 5-for-33 on turf this meet (15%) · Trainer Phillip Capuano 37% career 1-for-7 on turf this meetJky 24/107 from post 3Changes barns, from Barry Foley to Phillip Capuano. Cuts back from 1 1/16 miles to 5½ furlongs.
EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 77d agoRECORD Forest Boyce from post 3 here: 24 wins, 57 top-3 in 107 rides · 15% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/9 LRL 1 1/16 T OC 12k c 3rd/11 73 1.8-1 L 4wd 7/8;duel outs;game 9/19 DEL 1 1/16 T OC 20k 2nd/7 82 0.9-1 L 3-w 2nd; 2nd best 9/3 CNL 1 1/16 T Clm 16k Won/10 by hd 84 4.1-1 L Quick duel;found more 4Sticker ShockedM. Sanchez · A. DelacourSanchez · DelacourC74 53 64▲▲+10↕15-1Fair 20-15%
▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best74 53 64 ↕CCard model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 53–74 · Last 3 figs 74 53 64
Jockey Mychel J Sanchez 37% career 7-for-49 on turf this meet (14%) · Trainer Arnaud Delacour 33% career 1-for-4 on turf this meet ★ hot60D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSGoes 5½ furlongs after running -7½ furlongs last time. Finished 7th in a 9-horse allowance race at DEL, beaten 4¾ lengths.
EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 3 works in 30d, last 6d agoRECORD Mychel J Sanchez from post 4 here: 19 wins, 43 top-3 in 110 rides · 16% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/28 DEL -7½f T Alw n1x 7th/9 -4¾L 74 20-1 b L Flattened out 7/30 DEL 1m D OC 75k n1x 5th/5 -11L 53 8.0-1 b L No factor;dropped back 3/16 FG 1 1/16 D Alw n1x 4th/4 -5½L 64 3.1-1 L Stalked 3wd; tired 5Diva ReadyS. Russell · R. KlesarisRussell · KlesarisA83 75 73▲▲+8@trip 835-1Fair 5-116%
▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best83 75 73@trip 83A1Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 83 (8 tries) · Last 3 figs 83 75 73
Jockey Sheldon Russell 39% career ★ 7-for-17 on turf this meet (41%), #1 of 30 · Trainer Robert P Klesaris 29% career 0-for-2 on turf this meetAlso today · Jockey R5: Drilling For Gold 2-1, R7: Harewood 9-2, R8: High Anxiety 2-1 · Trainer R10: Spotted Bull 15-1CLASS UPLast out was 2nd, 2 lengths behind the winner, in a 9-horse race at LRL. Runs for $29,000 after a $32,550 race last out.
PACE HELPS Hot early fractions are likely, and that sets up a late run.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 117 days agoRECORD 1 win, 4 on the board from 10 starts hereRECORD Sheldon Russell from post 5 here: 24 wins, 55 top-3 in 110 rides · 23% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/10 LRL 5½f T ROC 1-65 2nd/9 -2L 83 7.5-1 L Rallied between horses 9/18 LRL 5½f T OC 12k 3rd/7 -3½L 75 1.8-1 L 3-5wd;flattened out 9/6 CNL 5½f T Alw s 5th/7 -3L 73 7.1-1 L Traffic upper; evenly 6IntegrityLSJ. Barbosa · C. FrockBarbosa · FrockC67 75 80▲+7↕10-1Fair 12-18%
▲ Up +767 75 80 ↕CLSCard model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #4 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +7 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 26–80 · Last 3 figs 67 75 80
LSLongshot read: 10-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 8% against a line of 7%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Jeiron Barbosa 30% career ★ 10-for-41 on turf this meet (24%) · Trainer Charles A Frock 24% career 0-for-9 on turf this meet (0%)Also today · Jockey R1: Sin Boldly 3-1, R2: Paris By Night 6-5, R4: In My Memories 5-2, R6: It's Fine 7-2 +1 more · Trainer R1: Crab Mentality 10-160D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORKBack after 100 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. New trainer: Brendan P Walsh had it last time, Charles A Frock now.
PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 3)WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 3F on Oct 23; 1 work in 30dRECORD Jeiron Barbosa from post 6 here: 25 wins, 69 top-3 in 139 rides · 14% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 7/22 CNL 1m D Alw n1x 4th/6 -8½L 67 3.3-1 b L Prompted2-3w;weakenedd 6/11 BAQ 1 1/16 T OC 100k n1x 5th/9 -3½L 75 15-1 b L 3-2p;led5/8-1/4;tired 4/25 GP 1m T MSW Won/12 80 6.8-1 b L Inside;clear; driving 7Costa AmalfitanaM. Chuan · J. NessChuan · NessB79 84 75►@trip 7510-1Fair 12-17%
► Steady79 84 75@trip 75BCard model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 75 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 79 84 75
Jockey Martin Chuan 37% career 0-for-11 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Jamie Ness 41% career ★ 6-for-27 on turf this meet (22%) ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R1: Ballykeefe 10-1, R5: Mo Rewards 8-1, R8: Amazing Gracer 3-1, R9: Profound Change 9-5 +1 more · Trainer R4: Mila Candy 8-1, R5: Mo Rewards 8-1, R8: Amazing Gracer 3-1Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here. A big drop, allowance to unknown, and worth asking why.
EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Traffic 3/8; kept on. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.WORKS Routine prep: 1 work in 30d, last 8d agoRECORD Martin Chuan from post 7 here: 2 wins, 7 top-3 in 23 rides · 13% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/3 DEL 6f D Alw n1x 5th/7 -3½L 79 6.1-1 b L Traffic 3/8;kept on 8/30 CNL 6f D Clm 16k bc Won/7 84 0.8-1 b L Closr5w5/16;bid4p;clr 8/7 CNL 6f D Clm 32k 6th/6 -7½L 75 11-1 b L Track 2w;6w upr;empty 8SkittliedatL. Briceno · R. LeafBriceno · LeafC59 51 75▼-5↕30-1Fair 50-12%
▼ Down -559 51 75 ↕CCard model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #12 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -5 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 51–75 · Last 3 figs 59 51 75
Jockey Leandro M Briceno 28% career 3-for-25 on turf this meet (12%) · Trainer Robert Iii Leaf 0-for-16 on turf this meet (0%)Also today · Jockey R1: Curly Divining 12-1, R2: Engage At Will 15-1, R5: Alvy 10-1, R5: Claudee Boy 30-1 +1 moreCLASS UPSwitches from dirt to turf. Was 7th of 7 at the first call last time.
EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.TROUBLED TRIP Drop bk; 4-5w; no threat last out; the speed figure already reflects it.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 55d agoRECORD 2 wins, 4 on the board from 10 starts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/17 LRL 5½f D OC 35k 6th/7 -7¾L 59 45-1 b L Drop bk;4-5w;no threat 9/25 LRL 1m D Clm 16k b 5th/6 -14L 51 36-1 b L Gave way turn 8/30 CNL 1m T OC 30k 8th/10 -8¾L 75 77-1 b L Off step slow; back 9QuadraJ. Ruiz · M. TrombettaRuiz · TrombettaB67 77 69▼▼-9@trip 694-1Fair 7-113%
▼▼ Big drop -967 77 69@trip 69BCard model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -9 · Best fig at today's trip 69 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 67 77 69
Jockey Jorge Ruiz 31% career 6-for-41 on turf this meet (15%) · Trainer Michael J Trombetta 33% career 3-for-34 on turf this meet (9%)Also today · Jockey R1: Light De Night 5-1, R5: Souper Crunchy 9-2, R6: Paynted By Nancy 15-1, R7: Grind It Out 20-1 +1 more · Trainer R1: Queen Of Wands 2-1, R5: Souper Crunchy 9-2◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLEWorked 4F in :49.20 on Sep 19, 3rd of 18 at the distance. Drops from allowance to unknown.
EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Bumped st; mild rally. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.WORKS SHARP 4f in :48.00 on Aug 22 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30dRECORD Jorge Ruiz from post 9 here: 9 wins, 18 top-3 in 42 rides · 19% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/2 MED 5f T Alw n1x 3rd/9 -4L 67 2.6-1 L Bumped st; mild rally 9/5 CNL 1 1/16 T frHandicap 6th/8 -1½L 77 8.8-1 L Pace 2p;headed;falter 7/11 CNL 5½f T frGlnPetty125k 5th/5 -¾L 69 2.7-1 Ins;3w upper;weakened 10Chitchatchitchat★H. Karamanos · B. KellyKaramanos · KellyA90 72 70▲▲+15@trip 905-1Fair 7-112%
▲▲ Big jump +15 · career best90 72 70@trip 90A★ Best at the trip 903Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +15 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 90 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 90 72 70
★ Best at the trip 90Jockey H A Karamanos 32% career 5-for-39 on turf this meet (13%) · Trainer Blake Kelly 30% career 0-for-2 on turf this meetWON LASTJky 9/46 from post 10Tops the field on speed figures, a 90 against 84 for the next best. 3 wins from 7 starts at this distance.
EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 62 days agoRECORD H A Karamanos from post 10 here: 9 wins, 20 top-3 in 46 rides · 14% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/20 LRL 5½f T Clm 16k bc Won/11 90 2.2-1 b L 4w 1/4; good energy 9/6 CNL 5½f T Alw s 6th/7 -2½L 72 3.1-1 b L Antsy;off slw;4w;empty 7/18 CNL 5½f T Alw s 7th/8 -8¼L 70 1.1-1 b L Reared brk;off slowly 11PeonyR. Gutierrez · D. DoughertyGutierrez · DoughertyB71 73 65▲+4@trip 8110-1Fair 20-15%
▲ Up +471 73 65@trip 81BCard model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #13 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +4 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 73 65
★ FASTEST WORKWON LASTHas won 4 of 7 going today's distance. Winner of a 9-horse allowance race at MED last time.
EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.WORKS SHARP 4f in :47.20 on Sep 5 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/2 MED 5f T Alw n1x Won/9 by 2½ 71 12-1 L 3w trip; up in time 9/12 MTH 5½f T Alw s 2nd/8 73 2.6-1 L Vied; clear; caught 7/26 MTH 5½f T OC 40k 4th/5 -4L 65 6.2-1 L Off bit slow; chase 2w 12Conquest DancerR. Mena · A. HallMena · HallC74 70 73▲+4≡30-1Fair 30-13%
▲ Up +474 70 73 ≡CCard model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +4 · ≡ Steady figures 66–74 · Last 3 figs 74 70 73
Also today · Jockey this race: Imperio Azteca 30-1, R9: Nancy Mary 8-1, R10: Silverbullettwenty 30-1180D+ LAYOFF189 days since the last start, the longest layoff in here, so it needs the works to say it's ready. Back to 5½ furlongs off a a mile race.
EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 2 works in 30d and the last 8d backRECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 6 starts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 4/24 LRL 1m T Clm 20k 4th/10 -5¾L 74 35-1 b L 4wd 1/4;swng wdst;gme 3/22 LRL 6f D Alw s 4th/8 -6L 70 32-1 b L Faded inside 2/15 LRL 1m D OC 20k 4th/7 -7L 73 20-1 b L Rail;chased;weakened 13Imperio AztecaR. Mena · O. NowakMena · NowakC69 40 66▲▲+10↕30-1Fair 50-12%
▲▲ Big jump +1069 40 66 ↕CCard model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #11 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 40–70 · Last 3 figs 69 40 66
Also today · Jockey this race: Conquest Dancer 30-1, R9: Nancy Mary 8-1, R10: Silverbullettwenty 30-160D LAYOFFOlga J Nowak takes over the training from Junior W Nicholson. Freshened 127 days. Watch how its recent works look.
PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 3)WORKS Average work schedule for this field (1 work in 30d, last 22d ago)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 6/25 PEN 5f T fsAlw41000n1x 5th/6 -5L 69 49-1 b L 3-w; weakened 5/26 PRX 6f D fsAlw42230n1x 8th/8 -20L 40 67-1 b L Brief speed; stopped 8/8 PEN 5f T Alw n1x 6th/7 -8L 66 18-1 b L Broke out st;5p;weaken
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (7 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
LAUREL PARK · RACE 3
UPCOMINGRatings Optional Claiming
Claiming $20,000, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
● Track record at 5 1/2 Furlongs: 60.63
The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.
Our number tops on #5 Diva Ready (a closer, M/L 5-1). Recent figures: 83 · 75 · 73. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #3 Americandreammaker at 9-2. Use #10 Chitchatchitchat in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #9 QUADRA (4-1) — our number has it ranked #5.
- #5 DIVA READY — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (14.8% to their 12.8%).
- #9 QUADRA — our #5 number, about right at the windows (14.1% to their 15.4%).
- #3 AMERICANDREAMMAKER — our #2 number, about right at the windows (13.5% to their 14.0%).
Model vs the morning line
- The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.
Likely leader: #6 Integrity; pressure from #1 I'Mwishingonastar, #13 Imperio Azteca; the shape helps #5 Diva Ready; and works against #1 I'Mwishingonastar, #6 Integrity, #13 Imperio Azteca.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
EXACTA; TRIFECTA & DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 3-4) / 10 CENT SUPERFECTA
50 CENT PICK 3 (RACES 3-4-5)
BET OPTIONS
WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta