Pick sheet

Race 62:43 PM Md 35000

6F · Dirt · 16 entered. Our model's top pick, Replicate, is 24% to win (morning line implies 25%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #12 Replicate ML 2-1 Fair 3-1 Model #1 Top last-race fig ▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 77

Jockey J. Barbosa · Trainer R. Sillaman · KEE 2: 0-1-0 · Dist 1: 0-0-0 · best fig at 6f dirt 55 · 16 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/15	LRL	5½f D	MCL 25k	2nd/7 by hd	72	1.2-1		Rushed;chased;2nd best
9/25	LRL	6f D	MSW	8th/9 -9L	55	6.2-1		4-3wd; weakened

Case: Last out 2nd in the Md25000 at LRL. Last Brisnet figures 72-55. Best at today's distance 55. 0-for-1 at the distance. 0-for-2 at Laurel Park. R. Sillaman / J. Barbosa.

Knock: 0-for-1 at the distance. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Contender #8 Side Hug ML 6-1 Fair 6-1 Model #2 ▲ Up +6 · career best ▼ Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 77

Jockey H. Karamanos · Trainer A. Allen · KEE 1: 0-0-1 · Dist 1: 0-0-1 · best fig at 6f dirt 68 · 36 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	LRL	6f D	MSW	3rd/9 -8½L	68	7.8-1	b	Urged ins;angled;tryng
9/3	CNL	5½f D	rMdSpWt	4th/8 -8½L	66	43-1	b	3w turn;one paced
8/6	CNL	5½f D	rMdSpWt	4th/7 -6L	59	17-1	b	Track ins;tip out;mild

Case: Last out 3rd in the MdSpWt at LRL. Last Brisnet figures 68-66-59. Best at today's distance 68. 0-for-1 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Laurel Park. A. Allen / H. Karamanos.

Knock: 0-for-1 at the distance.

Use #10 Musashi ML 5-1 Fair 7-1 Model #3 First career start. H. McMahon / C. Marquez. Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Jockey C. Marquez · Trainer H. McMahon · Debut

First start. By Great Notion out of Samurai Steph (Lea)

Trainer H. McMahon: 1st-time starters: 12% wins, 31% in the money (42 starts) · 2-year-olds: 8% wins, 28% in the money (98 starts)

Jockey C. Marquez in sprints: 15 wins from 127 (12%)

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/23	LRL	1m	1:45.00	breezing	1/4	● bullet
10/16	LRL	5f	1:01.60	breezing	11/20
10/7	LRL	5f	1:01.00	breezing	5/16
9/26	LRL	5f	1:02.60	breezing	17/31	from gate
9/19	LRL	5f	1:02.60	breezing	12/15	from gate

Longshot #5 Sunday Legacy ML 30-1 Fair 30-1 Model #9

Jockey L. Briceno · Trainer J. Salzman Jr. · Debut

First start. By Engage out of Silent Legacy (Silent Name)

Trainer J. Salzman Jr.: 1st-time starters: 18% wins, 62% in the money (34 starts) · 2-year-olds: 21% wins, 51% in the money (100 starts)

Jockey L. Briceno in sprints: 10 wins from 74 (14%)

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/25	LRL	3f	:37.40	breezing	8/15	from gate
10/20	LRL	5f	1:01.00	breezing	1/3	● bullet
10/7	LRL	5f	1:01.20	breezing	8/16
9/26	LRL	4f	:49.00	breezing	18/109
9/19	LRL	4f	:51.00	breezing	59/69

Case: First career start. J. Salzman Jr. / L. Briceno.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Narrowing the field: A #6, #8, #12 · B #11, #13, #15 · C #9, #14 · ? #1, #2, #3, #4, #5, #7, #10, #16 (no figures yet, never thrown out)

Angles: #6 Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 77 · #8 Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 77 · #9 Best fig 57 is 5+ under today's par 77 · #11 Best fig 57 is 5+ under today's par 77 · #12 Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 77 · #13 Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 77 · #14 Best fig 23 is 5+ under today's par 77 · #15 Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 77

R6 Laurel Park · Maiden Claiming $35,000

2:43 PM ET · 6 Furlongs Dirt · $37,000 · 16 runners2:43 PM · 6f Dirt · 16 runners

Upcoming $37K · Maiden Claiming $35,000

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Jerry InspiresF. Boyce · P. CapuanoBoyce · Capuano?20-1<1%—Debut?
Card model <1% · Our #13 · Tier ?
Jockey Forest Boyce 32% career 3-for-10 on dirt this meet (30%), #2 of 26 · Trainer Phillip Capuano 37% career 4-for-8 on dirt this meet (50%), #1 of 23
Also today · Jockey R1: Awesome McKinzie 8-1, R3: Bushido 9-5, R5: Worries Unfounded 10-1, R7: Synergism 5-2 +2 more
First career start, by Engage out of Munning's Favorite. First-time starter from a barn that wins 24% of the time with them (42 tried).
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 4 works in 30d, last 9d ago
RECORD Forest Boyce from post 1 here: 12 wins, 34 top-3 in 81 rides · 15% wins from all posts here
Last three races
First start. By Engage out of Munning's Favorite (Munnings)
Trainer P. Capuano: 1st-time starters: 24% wins, 48% in the money (42 starts) · 2-year-olds: 23% wins, 53% in the money (70 starts)
Jockey F. Boyce in sprints: 17 wins from 78 (22%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/22 DEL 5f 1:02.00 breezing 5/11 from gate
10/15 DEL 5f 1:02.00 breezing 2/5
10/8 DEL 5f 1:02.20 breezing 2/4 from gate
10/2 DEL 4f :51.20 breezing 37/45 from gate
9/26 DEL 3f :37.80 breezing 4/15
2Konrad's CornerC. Lopez · W. BailesLopez · Bailes?8-1<1%—Debut?
Card model <1% · Our #14 · Tier ?
Jockey Carlos Eduardo Lopez 36% career 3-for-33 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer W Robert Bailes 32% career ★ 4-for-16 on dirt this meet (25%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R5: Little Crybaby 30-1, R9: Mongolian Apple 6-1, R10: Igaming 3-1 · Trainer R7: Synergism 5-2, R7: Devastating 4-1
Unraced; this barn has 60 first-time starters on record and wins 10% of them. Worked 5F in 1:01.60 on Oct 30, 3rd fastest of 6 that morning.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 4 works in 30d, last 1d ago
RECORD Carlos Eduardo Lopez from post 2 here: 12 wins, 37 top-3 in 97 rides · 12% wins from all posts here
Last three races
First start. By Blofeld out of Girls Got Rhythum (Zensational)
Trainer W. Bailes: 1st-time starters: 10% wins, 27% in the money (60 starts) · 2-year-olds: 15% wins, 39% in the money (89 starts)
Jockey C. Lopez in sprints: 54 wins from 248 (22%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/30 LRL 5f 1:01.60 handily 3/6 from gate
10/23 LRL 4f :48.20 breezing 7/38
10/9 LRL 6f 1:15.20 breezing 1/3 ● bullet
10/3 LRL 4f :49.00 breezing 5/31
9/19 LRL 4f :50.00 breezing 42/69
3Emperor MingLSJ. Vargas · D. EubanksVargas · Eubanks?10-1Fair 8-111%—Debut?LS
Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #5 · Tier ?
LS
Longshot read: 10-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 11% against a line of 6%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Jose E Vargas 29% career ★ 5-for-21 on dirt this meet (24%) · Trainer Daniel G Eubanks 28% career 2-for-9 on dirt this meet (22%)
Also today · Jockey R7: Verdant Tones 20-1, R8: Kiss Me Mo 5-2, R9: Orator 20-1 · Trainer R4: Woman Enticed 20-1, this race: Midnight Mosey 10-1
Unraced, but it has been schooling from the gate (latest Oct 17). Debut for a Classic Empire youngster; the sire's listed stud fee is $26,000.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 4 works in 30d and the last 7d back
RECORD Jose E Vargas from post 3 here: 9 wins, 25 top-3 in 47 rides · 17% wins from all posts here
Last three races
First start. By Classic Empire out of Sweet Sermon (Tapit)
Trainer D. Eubanks: 1st-time starters: 11% wins, 33% in the money (9 starts) · 2-year-olds: 8% wins, 46% in the money (13 starts)
Jockey J. Vargas in sprints: 35 wins from 183 (19%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/24 LRL 4f :50.40 breezing 24/38
10/17 LRL 3f :37.60 breezing 3/4 from gate
10/10 LRL 4f :50.20 breezing 60/83
10/3 LRL 4f :51.20 breezing 29/31
8/25 TP 5f 1:03.20 breezing 18/25
4Captain O'sheaW. Ho · J. NixonHo · Nixon?15-1<1%—Debut?
Card model <1% · Our #15 · Tier ?
Jockey Wesley Ho 31% career 0-for-6 on dirt this meet · Trainer Justin Nixon 26% career 1-for-5 on dirt this meet
Unraced, with 12 works on record, the first on Jul 4. Debut for this Alternation colt, whose dam is Molly O'Shea.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 4 works in 30d and the last 6d back
Last three races
First start. By Alternation out of Molly O'shea (Cape Blanco)
Trainer J. Nixon: 1st-time starters: 13% wins, 39% in the money (23 starts) · 2-year-olds: 22% wins, 56% in the money (32 starts)
Jockey W. Ho in sprints: 23 wins from 210 (11%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/25 LRL 5f 1:02.60 breezing 10/20 from gate
10/18 LRL 4f :49.00 breezing 20/82
10/10 LRL 4f :48.60 breezing 6/83
10/2 LRL 4f :49.00 breezing 12/37
9/20 LRL 3f :38.20 breezing 20/30
5Sunday LegacyL. Briceno · J. Salzman Jr.Briceno · Salzman Jr.?30-1Fair 30-14%—Debut?
Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #9 · Tier ?
Jockey Leandro M Briceno 28% career ★ 8-for-39 on dirt this meet (21%) · Trainer John E Jr Salzman 22% career 2-for-8 on dirt this meet (25%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Band On The Run 20-1, R4: Dreams To Sell 9-2, R5: Preparefortakeoff 6-1, R9: Armed N Dangerous 10-1 +1 more
Debut for a trainer who is 18% with first-timers, over 34 starts. There is gate work on its record, the latest on Oct 25.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 3 works in 30d, last 6d ago
Last three races
First start. By Engage out of Silent Legacy (Silent Name)
Trainer J. Salzman Jr.: 1st-time starters: 18% wins, 62% in the money (34 starts) · 2-year-olds: 21% wins, 51% in the money (100 starts)
Jockey L. Briceno in sprints: 10 wins from 74 (14%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/25 LRL 3f :37.40 breezing 8/15 from gate
10/20 LRL 5f 1:01.00 breezing 1/3 ● bullet
10/7 LRL 5f 1:01.20 breezing 8/16
9/26 LRL 4f :49.00 breezing 18/109
9/19 LRL 4f :51.00 breezing 59/69
6Foolish Lover▼T. Lyapustina · W. KeeLyapustina · KeeA686-1Fair 7-113%—68A▼ Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 77
Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 68
▼ Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 77
Jockey Tais Lyapustina 28% career 2-for-17 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Willie J Kee 18% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R4: Daring Delight 10-1, R9: Forrest City 8-1 · Trainer R1: Rehoboth Avenue 30-1
Best recent figure is 68, well under the 77 par for this level. 2nd last time, 4½ lengths back, in a field of 8.
PACE HELPS Hot early fractions are likely, and that sets up a late run.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 29d ago
RECORD Tais Lyapustina from post 6 here: 5 wins, 18 top-3 in 67 rides · 11% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/9 LRL 5½f D MCL 35k 2nd/8 -4½L 68 52-1 b 2-4wd; rallied
7BourbonontheporchK. Gomez · K. CoxGomez · Cox?30-1Fair 50-12%—Debut?
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #10 · Tier ?
Jockey Kevin Gomez 30% career 0-for-9 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Kenneth M Cox 42% career 1-for-8 on dirt this meet (12%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Blushing Princess 12-1, R4: For Keeps 12-1, R9: Pendar 15-1
Unraced so far; the pedigree is Bourbon Courage out of Mark Me Special. There is gate work on its record, the latest on Oct 7.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 24d ago
RECORD Kevin Gomez from post 7 here: 4 wins, 10 top-3 in 26 rides · 9% wins from all posts here
Last three races
First start. By Bourbon Courage out of Mark Me Special (Haymaker)
Trainer K. Cox: 1st-time starters: 5% wins, 23% in the money (22 starts) · 2-year-olds: 11% wins, 34% in the money (38 starts)
Jockey K. Gomez in sprints: 9 wins from 109 (8%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/7 LRL 5f 1:04.00 breezing 14/16 from gate
9/26 LRL 5f 1:03.00 breezing 22/31
9/20 LRL 5f 1:04.20 breezing 16/18
9/13 LRL 4f :49.20 breezing 8/33
9/5 LRL 3f :39.00 breezing 8/10

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/22	DEL	5f	1:02.00	breezing	5/11	from gate
10/15	DEL	5f	1:02.00	breezing	2/5
10/8	DEL	5f	1:02.20	breezing	2/4	from gate
10/2	DEL	4f	:51.20	breezing	37/45	from gate
9/26	DEL	3f	:37.80	breezing	4/15

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/30	LRL	5f	1:01.60	handily	3/6	from gate
10/23	LRL	4f	:48.20	breezing	7/38
10/9	LRL	6f	1:15.20	breezing	1/3	● bullet
10/3	LRL	4f	:49.00	breezing	5/31
9/19	LRL	4f	:50.00	breezing	42/69

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/24	LRL	4f	:50.40	breezing	24/38
10/17	LRL	3f	:37.60	breezing	3/4	from gate
10/10	LRL	4f	:50.20	breezing	60/83
10/3	LRL	4f	:51.20	breezing	29/31
8/25	TP	5f	1:03.20	breezing	18/25

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/25	LRL	5f	1:02.60	breezing	10/20	from gate
10/18	LRL	4f	:49.00	breezing	20/82
10/10	LRL	4f	:48.60	breezing	6/83
10/2	LRL	4f	:49.00	breezing	12/37
9/20	LRL	3f	:38.20	breezing	20/30

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	LRL	5½f D	MCL 35k	2nd/8 -4½L	68	52-1	b	2-4wd; rallied

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/7	LRL	5f	1:04.00	breezing	14/16	from gate
9/26	LRL	5f	1:03.00	breezing	22/31
9/20	LRL	5f	1:04.20	breezing	16/18
9/13	LRL	4f	:49.20	breezing	8/33
9/5	LRL	3f	:39.00	breezing	8/10

8Side Hug▼H. Karamanos · A. AllenKaramanos · AllenA68 66 59▲+6@trip 686-1Fair 6-114%▲ Up +6 · career best68 66 59@trip 68A▼ Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 772

Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +6 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 68 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 68 66 59

▼ Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 77

Jockey H A Karamanos 32% career 0-for-13 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer A Ferris Iii Allen 25% career 2-for-23 on dirt this meet (9%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Honor Thy Cookie 15-1, R3: Don't Wait Up 12-1, R5: Wonder Girl 1-1, R7: Chilling Factor 20-1 +1 more · Trainer R1: Cross Of Valor 10-1, R3: All The Hardways 15-1, R3: Don't Wait Up 12-1, R5: Instparty 30-1 +3 more

Drops from maiden special weight to maiden claiming $35,000. Has moved up each time out, 59 to 66 to 68.

PACE HELPS Hot early fractions are likely, and that sets up a late run.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 16 days ago

RECORD H A Karamanos from post 8 here: 9 wins, 28 top-3 in 69 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	LRL	6f D	MSW	3rd/9 -8½L	68	7.8-1	b	Urged ins;angled;tryng
9/3	CNL	5½f D	rMdSpWt	4th/8 -8½L	66	43-1	b	3w turn;one paced
8/6	CNL	5½f D	rMdSpWt	4th/7 -6L	59	17-1	b	Track ins;tip out;mild

9Diminuto Burrito▼M. Burnham · J. MurphyBurnham · MurphyC57 5030-1Fair 50-12%—57 50C▼ Best fig 57 is 5+ under today's par 77
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #11 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 57 50
▼ Best fig 57 is 5+ under today's par 77
Jockey Matilda Burnham 21% career 2-for-14 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Joseph M Murphy 31% career 3-for-18 on dirt this meet (17%)
Also today · Jockey R7: Never So Lucky 30-1 · Trainer this race: Uptomom 30-1
60D LAYOFF
Back after 101 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. The longest gap in the field. Joseph M Murphy takes over the training from Jose Corrales.
PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 4)
WORKS Routine prep: 2 works in 30d, last 7d ago
RECORD Matilda Burnham from post 9 here: 2 wins, 5 top-3 in 21 rides · 7% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
7/22 DEL 5f D MCL 25k 5th/6 -5½L 57 3.0-1 Slow start; rail
6/14 LRL 5f D MSW 8th/8 -5½L 50 64-1 Brk out;bmp;ins;wknd
10MusashiC. Marquez · H. McMahonMarquez · McMahon?5-1Fair 7-113%—Debut?3
Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier ?
Jockey Charlie Marquez 29% career ★ 4-for-17 on dirt this meet (24%) · Trainer Hugh I McMahon 5-for-13 on dirt this meet (38%), #2 of 23
Also today · Jockey R1: Rehoboth Avenue 30-1
No race form yet, but it was the fastest 8F work of its morning on Oct 23 (1:45.00). First start coming, and it has been busy in the mornings: 11 works since Jul 21.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 23 (8F in 1:45.00), 3 works in 30d
Last three races
First start. By Great Notion out of Samurai Steph (Lea)
Trainer H. McMahon: 1st-time starters: 12% wins, 31% in the money (42 starts) · 2-year-olds: 8% wins, 28% in the money (98 starts)
Jockey C. Marquez in sprints: 15 wins from 127 (12%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/23 LRL 1m 1:45.00 breezing 1/4 ● bullet
10/16 LRL 5f 1:01.60 breezing 11/20
10/7 LRL 5f 1:01.00 breezing 5/16
9/26 LRL 5f 1:02.60 breezing 17/31 from gate
9/19 LRL 5f 1:02.60 breezing 12/15 from gate
11Tony Stark▼J. Briceno · M. MilosevicBriceno · MilosevicB5712-1Fair 20-15%—57B▼ Best fig 57 is 5+ under today's par 77
Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 57
▼ Best fig 57 is 5+ under today's par 77
Jockey Jean Gregor Briceno 28% career 0-for-13 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Milan Milosevic 26% career 1-for-2 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R10: Not Forgotten 30-1 · Trainer R5: Sugar Bee 7-2, R7: Verdant Tones 20-1
Last out was 4th, 12 lengths behind the winner, in a 6-horse maiden special weight race at LRL. Class relief: maiden special weight last time, maiden claiming $35,000 today.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS Average work schedule for this field (2 works in 30d, last 7d ago)
RECORD Jean Gregor Briceno from post 11 here: 1 win, 8 top-3 in 22 rides · 10% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/25 LRL 5½f D MSW 4th/6 -12L 57 13-1 Passed tired foes
12Replicate▼J. Barbosa · R. SillamanBarbosa · SillamanA72 55@trip 552-1Fair 3-124%—72 55@trip 55A▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 771
Card model 24% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Best fig at today's trip 55 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 55
▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 77
Jockey Jeiron Barbosa 30% career 4-for-38 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Richard P Sillaman 33% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R1: Molly The Great 12-1, R2: Beltane 6-1, R3: Cybertime 10-1, R3: All The Hardways 15-1 +4 more · Trainer R4: Ashweee 8-1
Tops the field on speed figures, a 72 against 68 for the next best. Finished 2nd in a 7-horse maiden claiming $25,000 race at LRL, beaten a head.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 6)
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 42 days ago
RECORD Jeiron Barbosa from post 12 here: 2 wins, 4 top-3 in 23 rides · 14% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/15 LRL 5½f D MCL 25k 2nd/7 by hd 72 1.2-1 Rushed;chased;2nd best
9/25 LRL 6f D MSW 8th/9 -9L 55 6.2-1 4-3wd; weakened
13Midnight Mosey▼J. Toledo · D. EubanksToledo · EubanksB6210-1Fair 15-16%—62B▼ Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 77
Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 62
▼ Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 77
Jockey Jevian Toledo 33% career ★ 7-for-28 on dirt this meet (25%), #3 of 26 · Trainer Daniel G Eubanks 28% career 2-for-9 on dirt this meet (22%)
Also today · Jockey R5: Sugar Bee 7-2, R7: Devastating 4-1, R8: Diamond N Dress 5-1, R9: Start Tappin 15-1 · Trainer R4: Woman Enticed 20-1, this race: Emperor Ming 10-1
Jockey switch: Carlos Eduardo Lopez last out, Jevian Toledo today. Went to the front early last out (early pace figure 98).
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 6)
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 7d back)
RECORD Jevian Toledo from post 13 here: 2 wins, 5 top-3 in 16 rides · 16% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/9 LRL 5½f D MCL 35k 5th/8 -4L 62 14-1 Sent; rail; tired
14Uptomom▼G. Rabadan · J. MurphyRabadan · MurphyC2330-1Fair 99-1<1%—23C▼ Best fig 23 is 5+ under today's par 77
Card model <1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #12 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 23
▼ Best fig 23 is 5+ under today's par 77
Jockey Gerardo Rabadan 14% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet · Trainer Joseph M Murphy 31% career 3-for-18 on dirt this meet (17%)
Also today · Trainer this race: Diminuto Burrito 30-1
Changes barns, from Jose Corrales to Joseph M Murphy. Goes 6 furlongs after running -6½ furlongs last time.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS Routine prep: 1 work in 30d, last 2d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/7 TIM -6½f D MSW 5th/5 -17L 23 7.0-1 b Dropped back;
15Golden Gavin▼W. Corujo · C. MancillaCorujo · MancillaB64@trip 646-1Fair 15-16%—64@trip 64B▼ Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 77
Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip 64 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 64
▼ Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 77
Jockey Wilfredo Corujo 22% career 1-for-6 on dirt this meet · Trainer Carlos A Mancilla 27% career 1-for-12 on dirt this meet (8%)
A step up in company: maiden claiming $25,000 before, maiden claiming $35,000 today. Dropped in well back early last out, 8th of 9 at the first call.
PACE HELPS The front end should be a fight, and this one gets to wait on it.
WORKS Routine prep: 2 works in 30d, last 6d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/9 DEL 6f D MCL 25k 3rd/9 -6½L 64 23-1 3-w; along for 3rd
16Just BrothersJ. Gomez · C. AlcalaGomez · Alcala?20-1<1%—Debut?
Card model <1% · Our #16 · Tier ?
Jockey Jose Antonio Gomez 30% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet · Trainer Cesar Alcala 40% career
Unraced, but on Sep 24 it was 2nd of 17 at 4F (:49.00). First start coming, and it has been busy in the mornings: 10 works since Jul 21.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 13d back)
Last three races
First start. By Engage out of Just Sisters (Munnings)
Trainer C. Alcala: 1st-time starters: 0% wins, 0% in the money (1 starts) · 2-year-olds: 0% wins, 0% in the money (1 starts)
Jockey J. Gomez in sprints: 13 wins from 127 (10%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/18 MTH 5f 1:04.60 breezing 2/2
10/11 MTH 4f :51.20 breezing 15/17
9/24 MTH 4f :49.00 breezing 2/17
9/18 MTH 5f 1:04.80 breezing 1/1 ● bullet
9/5 MTH 4f :50.40 breezing 32/37

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
7/22	DEL	5f D	MCL 25k	5th/6 -5½L	57	3.0-1		Slow start; rail
6/14	LRL	5f D	MSW	8th/8 -5½L	50	64-1		Brk out;bmp;ins;wknd

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	LRL	5½f D	MSW	4th/6 -12L	57	13-1		Passed tired foes

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	LRL	5½f D	MCL 35k	5th/8 -4L	62	14-1		Sent; rail; tired

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/7	TIM	-6½f D	MSW	5th/5 -17L	23	7.0-1	b	Dropped back;

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	DEL	6f D	MCL 25k	3rd/9 -6½L	64	23-1		3-w; along for 3rd

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/18	MTH	5f	1:04.60	breezing	2/2
10/11	MTH	4f	:51.20	breezing	15/17
9/24	MTH	4f	:49.00	breezing	2/17
9/18	MTH	5f	1:04.80	breezing	1/1	● bullet
9/5	MTH	4f	:50.40	breezing	32/37

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

LAUREL PARK · RACE 6

UPCOMING

Maiden Claiming $35,000

Field

16 runners

Purse

$37,000

Post

2:43 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Card model top pick

#12 · 24%

Maiden Claiming, for 2-year-olds.

Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 67.95

The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #12 Replicate (early speed, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 72 · 55. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #8 Side Hug at 6-1. Use #10 Musashi in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #12 REPLICATE (2-1) — our number agrees.
#12 REPLICATE — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 25.0%, they've got 21.0%.
#10 MUSASHI — our #3 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 12.7%, they've got 10.5%.
#8 SIDE HUG — our #2 number, a price play — we're at 12.1%, the board 9.0%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#12 REPLICATE — we make it 25.0%, the morning line works out to 21.0%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#10 MUSASHI — we make it 12.7%, the morning line works out to 10.5%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Longshot the model rates above its line: #5 SUNDAY LEGACY (30-1) — our fair 2.9% is above the morning line's 2.0%; needs the trip to fall right.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #13 Midnight Mosey; pressure from #12 Replicate, #9 Diminuto Burrito; the shape helps #6 Foolish Lover, #8 Side Hug, #15 Golden Gavin; and works against #1 Jerry Inspires, #2 Konrad's Corner, #3 Emperor Ming.

Lead

13Midnight Mosey9812Replicate979Diminuto Burrito83

Press

none

Stalk

none

8Side Hug896Foolish Lover8815Golden Gavin80

No style yet

14Uptomom8211Tony Stark641Jerry Inspires2Konrad's Corner3Emperor Ming4Captain O'Shea5Sunday Legacy7Bourbonontheporch10Musashi16Just Brothers

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Midnight Mosey

Replicate

Diminuto Burrito

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Golden Gavin

Foolish Lover

Side Hug

Bet types offeredwager menu

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

EXACTA; TRIFECTA & DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 6-7) / 10 CENT SUPERFECTA

50 CENT PICK 3 (RACES 6-7-8) / 50 CENT PICK 5 (RACES 6-7-8-9-10)

TBredIQ shows analysis only. We don’t build tickets or suggest amounts.

BET OPTIONS

WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta

Wagers offered on this race — analysis only, no stake sizing.