Pick sheet

Race 73:13 PM ROC 1-65Late Pick 4 starts

1 1/16 Mi · Turf · 10 entered. Our model's top pick, Synergism, is 24% to win (morning line implies 22%). Pace: honest. Speed from #2, #7, #8.

Top pick #1 Synergism ML 5-2 Fair 3-1 Model #1 Top last-race fig ▲ Up +5

Jockey F. Boyce · Trainer W. Bailes · KEE 4: 0-1-2 · Dist 3: 0-0-2 · best fig at 1 1/16 turf 82 · 58 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/3	CNL	1 1/16 T	Clm 16k c	3rd/10 -2L	82	3.6-1	b L	4w advance; best rest
8/7	DEL	1 1/16 D	OC 25k	6th/6 -2¼L	72	0.9-1	b L	Dueled; gave way
7/18	CNL	1m T	Alw s	4th/7 -4L	80	2.2-1	b L	Checked;ang1/8;miss 3d

Case: Last out 3rd in the fClm16000c at CNL. Last Brisnet figures 82-72-80. Best at today's distance 84. 0-for-3 at the distance. 0-for-4 at Laurel Park. W. Bailes / F. Boyce.

Knock: 0-for-3 at the distance.

Contender #4 Sleepwalker ML 7-2 Fair 7-2 Model #2 ► Steady ≡ Steady 72–77

Jockey S. Russell · Trainer B. Russell · KEE 4: 2-1-0 · Dist 9: 1-3-1 · best fig at 1 1/16 turf 83 · 41 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/20	LRL	1 1/16 T	Alw n1x	5th/10 -2L	77	6.0-1	b L	Traffic 3/8;flat late
8/9	CNL	1m T	Alw n1x	5th/10 -1L	77	6.2-1	b L	Bmp 1st;ins;cut cornr
6/26	CNL	1 1/16 T	Alw n1x	4th/6 -2¾L	77	3.2-1	L	Ins-2p;blckd3/16;angld

Case: Last out 5th/10 -2L in the fAlw53020n1x at LRL. Last Brisnet figures 77-77-77. Best at today's distance 83. 1-for-9 at the distance. 2-for-4 at Laurel Park. B. Russell / S. Russell.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Use #10 Devastating ML 4-1 Fair 6-1 Model #3 ► Steady Last out 8th/10 -5L in the fAlw53020n1x at LRL. Last Brisnet figures 75-86-72. Best at today's distance 75. 0-for-1 at the distance. 0-for-5 at Laurel Park. W. Bailes / J. Toledo. Knock: 0-for-1 at the distance. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey J. Toledo · Trainer W. Bailes · KEE 5: 0-3-0 · Dist 1: 0-0-0 · best fig at 1 1/16 turf 75 · 41 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/20	LRL	1 1/16 T	Alw n1x	8th/10 -5L	75	11-1	b L	3w 1st;4w 2nd; tired
8/30	CNL	1m T	OC 30k	Won/10 by hd	86	7.9-1	b L	5w move 2nd;dug in
8/8	CNL	1m T	OC 30k	5th/10 -2L	72	1.8-1	b L	Fwd; traffic; no bid

Longshot #3 Can't Fool Me ML 10-1 Fair 12-1 Model #6 ▼ Down -6 ★ Best at 1 1/16 turf: 88

Jockey A. Cruz · Trainer P. De · KEE 1: 0-0-0 · Dist 18: 3-4-0 · best fig at 1 1/16 turf 88 · 22 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	LRL	1 1/16 T	OC 12k c	6th/11 -6½L	70	6.8-1	b L	Rated ins;angl;belated
9/25	BEL	1m T	fsOC45000n2x	10th/10 -9¾L	64	35-1	b L	Trailed throughout
7/24	SAR	1 1/16 T	fsOC45000n2x	5th/8 -3¼L	81	11-1	b L	4-5w uppr; belatedly

Case: Last out 6th/11 -6½L in the fOC12500c at LRL. Last Brisnet figures 70-64-81. Best at today's distance 88. 3-for-18 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Laurel Park. P. De / A. Cruz.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Narrowing the field: A #1, #4, #8 · B #2, #7, #10 · C #3, #5, #6, #9

Angles: #7 Lone speed on early pace · #8 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

R7 Laurel Park · Ratings Optional Claiming

3:13 PM ET · 1 1/16 Miles Turf · $29,000 · 10 runners3:13 PM · 1 1/16m Turf · 10 runners

Upcoming $29K · Ratings Optional Claiming

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #3 Can't Fool Me (10-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 88 from 8 tries. Not in our top three.

1SynergismF. Boyce · W. BailesBoyce · BailesA82 72 80▲+5@trip 825-2Fair 3-124%▲ Up +582 72 80@trip 82A1

Card model 24% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +5 · Best fig at today's trip 82 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 82 72 80

Jockey Forest Boyce 32% career 5-for-35 on turf this meet (14%) · Trainer W Robert Bailes 32% career ★ 6-for-21 on turf this meet (29%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Awesome McKinzie 8-1, R3: Bushido 9-5, R5: Worries Unfounded 10-1, R6: Jerry Inspires 20-1 +2 more · Trainer R6: Konrad's Corner 8-1, this race: Devastating 4-1

3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORK3/3 board here

New trainer: Jamie Ness had it last time, W Robert Bailes now. Beaten 2 lengths for 3rd in a 10-horse $16,000 claiming race at CNL.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 24 (5F in 1:01.40), 3 works in 30d

RECORD On the board in all 3 starts here (0 wins)

RECORD Forest Boyce from post 1 here: 12 wins, 34 top-3 in 81 rides · 15% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/3	CNL	1 1/16 T	Clm 16k c	3rd/10 -2L	82	3.6-1	b L	4w advance; best rest
8/7	DEL	1 1/16 D	OC 25k	6th/6 -2¼L	72	0.9-1	b L	Dueled; gave way
7/18	CNL	1m T	Alw s	4th/7 -4L	80	2.2-1	b L	Checked;ang1/8;miss 3d

2Chilling FactorH. Karamanos · M. McGoeyKaramanos · McGoeyB78 67 80▲+6@trip 7620-1Fair 30-13%▲ Up +678 67 80@trip 76B

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +6 · Best fig at today's trip 76 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 78 67 80

Jockey H A Karamanos 32% career 5-for-42 on turf this meet (12%) · Trainer Monica McGoey 1-for-3 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Honor Thy Cookie 15-1, R3: Don't Wait Up 12-1, R5: Wonder Girl 1-1, R6: Side Hug 6-1 +1 more · Trainer R3: Winston Wolf 20-1

Finished 3rd in a 7-horse optional claiming race at DEL, beaten 5 lengths. Fastest 4F work of its morning on Jun 20 (:49.40), a sign it is training forwardly.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 24d back)

RECORD H A Karamanos from post 2 here: 16 wins, 39 top-3 in 100 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/19	DEL	1 1/16 T	OC 20k	3rd/7 -5L	78	9.6-1	L	4-w2nd; along for 3rd
8/6	CNL	1m T	Alw s	5th/6 -3½L	67	9.3-1	L	Steadied into 1st;2-3w
7/18	CNL	1m T	Alw s	5th/7 -1L	80	38-1	L	Hit gate;bid2w1/4;fade

3Can't Fool Me★LSA. Cruz · P. DeCruz · DeC70 64 81▼-6@trip 8810-1Fair 12-17%▼ Down -670 64 81@trip 88C★ Best at the trip 88LS

Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -6 · Best fig at today's trip 88 (8 tries) · Last 3 figs 70 64 81

★ Best at the trip 88LS

Longshot read: 10-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 7% against a line of 7%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Angel Cruz 33% career 4-for-41 on turf this meet (10%) · Trainer Paz Horacio De 2-for-19 on turf this meet (11%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Who's Got Cents 8-1, R3: Fierce And Strong 6-1, R4: Love You Love You 10-1, R8: The Goddess Factor 12-1 · Trainer R4: Love You Love You 10-1

CLASS DROP

A step up in company: optional claiming before, unknown today. Changes barns, from Emanuel J Geralis to Paz Horacio De.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 8d back

RECORD Angel Cruz from post 3 here: 23 wins, 63 top-3 in 170 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	LRL	1 1/16 T	OC 12k c	6th/11 -6½L	70	6.8-1	b L	Rated ins;angl;belated
9/25	BEL	1m T	fsOC45000n2x	10th/10 -9¾L	64	35-1	b L	Trailed throughout
7/24	SAR	1 1/16 T	fsOC45000n2x	5th/8 -3¼L	81	11-1	b L	4-5w uppr; belatedly

4SleepwalkerS. Russell · B. RussellRussell · RussellA77 77 77►≡@trip 837-2Fair 7-221%► Steady77 77 77 ≡@trip 83A2

Card model 21% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 72–77 · Best fig at today's trip 83 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 77 77

Jockey Sheldon Russell 39% career ★ 7-for-20 on turf this meet (35%), #1 of 31 · Trainer Brittany T Russell 43% career ★ 11-for-29 on turf this meet (38%), #1 of 29 ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R9: Surgical Precision 9-2, R9: Daring Venture 8-1 · Trainer R9: Surgical Precision 9-2, R9: Daring Venture 8-1, R10: Igaming 3-1

3/4 board here

A big drop, allowance to unknown, and worth asking why. Worked 4F in :49.00 on Oct 21, 2nd of 6 at the distance.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Traffic 3/8; flat late. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 2 works in 30d and the last 10d back

RECORD 2 wins, 3 on the board from 4 starts here

RECORD Sheldon Russell from post 4 here: 26 wins, 62 top-3 in 104 rides · 23% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/20	LRL	1 1/16 T	Alw n1x	5th/10 -2L	77	6.0-1	b L	Traffic 3/8;flat late
8/9	CNL	1m T	Alw n1x	5th/10 -1L	77	6.2-1	b L	Bmp 1st;ins;cut cornr
6/26	CNL	1 1/16 T	Alw n1x	4th/6 -2¾L	77	3.2-1	L	Ins-2p;blckd3/16;angld

5Never So LuckyM. Burnham · K. HarigeorgiouBurnham · HarigeorgiouC43 52 65▼▼-19↕30-1Fair 99-1<1%▼▼ Big drop -1943 52 65 ↕C

Card model <1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -19 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 43–70 · Last 3 figs 43 52 65

Jockey Matilda Burnham 21% career 0-for-12 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Konstan Harigeorgiou 16% career 0-for-2 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R6: Diminuto Burrito 30-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf. Stretches out from 5½ furlongs to 1 1/16 miles.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 79d back)

RECORD Matilda Burnham from post 5 here: 2 wins, 7 top-3 in 27 rides · 7% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/16	LRL	5½f D	Alw n1x	5th/5 -20L	43	34-1	b L	Rail; retreated
10/4	LRL	5½f D	OC 12k	5th/5 -10L	52	18-1	b L	7wd 1/4; no rally
9/27	MNR	5f T	Clm 5k	6th/9 -5½L	65	10-1	b L	Slow early; no factor;

6Juniper JuiceM. Sanchez · K. BonifaceSanchez · BonifaceC74 76 80▼-4≡@trip 8210-1Fair 15-17%▼ Down -474 76 80 ≡@trip 82C

Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -4 · ≡ Steady figures 74–80 · Best fig at today's trip 82 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 76 80

Jockey Mychel J Sanchez 37% career 8-for-51 on turf this meet (16%) · Trainer Kevin C Boniface 23% career 0-for-7 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Cross Of Valor 10-1, R1: Mischievous Twins 9-5, R3: Apollo Ten 5-2, R4: Hurricane Lynn 2-1 +2 more · Trainer R10: Not Forgotten 30-1

Figures have slipped: 80, 76, 74 over its last three. Quick turnaround, just 7 days since the last start.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 16d ago

RECORD 0 wins, 5 on the board from 12 starts here

RECORD Mychel J Sanchez from post 6 here: 14 wins, 52 top-3 in 119 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/24	LRL	1 1/16 T	frMdMilLdysB128k	7th/10 -8L	74	30-1	b	Lost ground 4-wide
9/11	LRL	1⅛m T	frAlw49040n1x	6th/7 -5½L	76	3.2-1	b	Awkward st;shift 4wd
8/15	CNL	1 1/16 T	fsAllBrandyB125k	4th/8 -7L	80	32-1	b	Ins;6w upper;late kick

7My Ronda▲M. Chuan · B. KellyChuan · KellyB44 74 78▼▼-22↕@trip 746-1Fair 7-112%▼▼ Big drop -2244 74 78 ↕@trip 74B▲ Lone speed on early pace

Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -22 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 44–78 · Best fig at today's trip 74 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 44 74 78

▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey Martin Chuan 37% career 1-for-15 on turf this meet (7%) · Trainer Blake Kelly 30% career 0-for-3 on turf this meet ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R3: Winston Wolf 20-1, R3: Jungle Glow 7-2, R5: Pageant Princess 12-1, R8: Law School 2-1 +2 more

Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here. Trending the wrong way on speed, 78 to 74 to 44.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 11d back)

RECORD Martin Chuan from post 7 here: 2 wins, 7 top-3 in 23 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	DEL	1 1/16 D	Alw n1x	9th/10 -10L	44	24-1	b L	Showed speed;gave way
8/28	DEL	-7½f T	Alw n1x	6th/9 by nk	74	12-1	b L	Led; dueled; gave way
7/16	DEL	-8.31818f T	Alw n1x	2nd/10	78	44-1	b L	Gave way grudgingly

8Mrs. Katz▼J. Barbosa · J. VargasBarbosa · VargasA80 80 81►≡@trip 808-1Fair 12-18%► Steady80 80 81 ≡@trip 80A▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 74–81 · Best fig at today's trip 80 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 80 81

▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey Jeiron Barbosa 30% career ★ 10-for-42 on turf this meet (24%) · Trainer Jose Antonio Vargas 29% career 0-for-1 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Molly The Great 12-1, R2: Beltane 6-1, R3: Cybertime 10-1, R3: All The Hardways 15-1 +4 more · Trainer R5: Naughty Favors 8-1

3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORK

Jose Antonio Vargas takes over the training from Derek S Ryan. Off 58 days since the last start.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Oct 15; 3 works in 30d

RECORD Jeiron Barbosa from post 8 here: 8 wins, 28 top-3 in 76 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/3	CNL	1 1/16 T	Clm 16k c	5th/10 -2½L	80	3.9-1	b L	Inside; lacked punch
8/16	MTH	1 1/16 T	OC 20k n1x	6th/7 -1L	80	4.8-1	b L	Vied; led; tired
7/18	MTH	1m T	OC 20k n1x	2nd/9	81	12-1	b L	Bid turn; led; gamely

9Verdant TonesJ. Vargas · M. MilosevicVargas · MilosevicC69 64 64▲+7@trip 6420-1Fair 30-13%▲ Up +7 · career best69 64 64@trip 64C

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +7 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 64 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 69 64 64

Jockey Jose E Vargas 29% career 3-for-27 on turf this meet (11%) · Trainer Milan Milosevic 26% career 1-for-7 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R6: Emperor Ming 10-1, R8: Kiss Me Mo 5-2, R9: Orator 20-1 · Trainer R5: Sugar Bee 7-2, R6: Tony Stark 12-1

WON LAST

Comes in off a victory in an 8-horse maiden special weight race at CNL. Class relief: maiden special weight last time, unknown today.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS Routine prep: 2 works in 30d, last 13d ago

RECORD Jose E Vargas from post 9 here: 2 wins, 6 top-3 in 16 rides · 17% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/5	CNL	1m T	frMdSpWt	Won/8 by ¾	69	9.9-1	L	Took back;full of run
7/16	DEL	-7½f T	MCL 25k	3rd/9 -6L	64	12-1	L	5-4wd turns;fltnd out
6/21	LRL	1 1/16 T	MCL 35k	7th/10 -1L	64	28-1	L	Prssrd ins;clr 3/8;wkn

10DevastatingJ. Toledo · W. BailesToledo · BailesB75 86 72►@trip 754-1Fair 6-114%► Steady75 86 72@trip 75B3

Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 75 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 75 86 72

Jockey Jevian Toledo 33% career 1-for-36 on turf this meet (3%) · Trainer W Robert Bailes 32% career ★ 6-for-21 on turf this meet (29%)

Also today · Jockey R5: Sugar Bee 7-2, R6: Midnight Mosey 10-1, R8: Diamond N Dress 5-1, R9: Start Tappin 15-1 · Trainer R6: Konrad's Corner 8-1, this race: Synergism 5-2

3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORK6/11 board here

Tops the field on speed figures, an 86 against 84 for the next best. Drops from allowance to unknown.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 3 (4F in :48.20), 3 works in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 6 on the board from 11 starts here

RECORD Jevian Toledo from post 10 here: 11 wins, 24 top-3 in 58 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/20	LRL	1 1/16 T	Alw n1x	8th/10 -5L	75	11-1	b L	3w 1st;4w 2nd; tired
8/30	CNL	1m T	OC 30k	Won/10 by hd	86	7.9-1	b L	5w move 2nd;dug in
8/8	CNL	1m T	OC 30k	5th/10 -2L	72	1.8-1	b L	Fwd; traffic; no bid

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: honest. Speed from #2, #7, #8.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

LAUREL PARK · RACE 7

UPCOMING

Ratings Optional Claiming

Field

10 runners

Purse

$29,000

Post

3:13 PM ET

Pace

Tactical / Honest

Card model top pick

#1 · 24%

Claiming $20,000, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 1 1/16 Miles: 100.22

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #1 Synergism (a closer, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 82 · 72 · 80. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #4 Sleepwalker at 7-2. Use #10 Devastating in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #1 SYNERGISM (5-2) — our number agrees.
#1 SYNERGISM — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (23.0% to their 22.5%).
#4 SLEEPWALKER — our #2 number, about right at the windows (19.1% to their 17.5%).
#10 DEVASTATING — our #3 number, about right at the windows (15.5% to their 15.7%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

Likely leader: #7 My Ronda; pressure from #2 Chilling Factor, #8 Mrs. Katz.

Lead

none

Press

7My Ronda892Chilling Factor848Mrs. Katz84

Stalk

4Sleepwalker735Never So Lucky696Juniper Juice6810Devastating66

1Synergism783Can't Fool Me739Verdant Tones63

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

My Ronda

Chilling Factor

Mrs. Katz

Sleepwalker

Never So Lucky

Juniper Juice

Devastating

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Can't Fool Me

Verdant Tones

Synergism

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Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

EXACTA; TRIFECTA & DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 7-8) / 10 CENT SUPERFECTA

50 CENT PICK 3 (RACES 7-8-9) / 50 CENT PICK 4 (RACES 7-8-9-10)

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