R11 Lone Star Park · Trial

10:25 PM ET · 400 Yards Dirt · $10,000 · 10 runners10:25 PM · 1.8f Dirt · 10 runners

Upcoming $10K · Trial

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles
  1. 1Rhynestone Cowboy▼LSE. Navarrete · S. WoodNavarrete · WoodC65 84 59▼-6↕20-1Fair 20-15%▼ Down -665 84 59 ↕C▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (65 vs 84)LS

    Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -6 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 59–84 · Last 3 figs 65 84 59

    ▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (65 vs 84)LS

    Longshot read: 20-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 5% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.

    Jockey Eugenio Alberto Navarrete 1-for-18 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer S Trey Wood 28% career 4-for-28 on dirt this meet (14%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: Timeto Quit 30-1, R2: Rr Evil Jess 30-1, R4: Delightfully Sage 6-1, R5: Sashay My Life Away 12-1 +1 more · Trainer R1: Timeto Quit 30-1, R2: Rr Evil Jess 30-1, R3: Fearless Cowboy 7-2, R4: Delightfully Sage 6-1 +11 more

    Was running in maiden special weight; today's stakes nongraded is an easier level on paper. Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power.

    PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 75 days ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/2LS1.59091f DMSW9th/10 -8L652.5-1b LRank late
    5/22ALB1.59091f DFutTrl100002nd/108423-1b LDueled; outfinished
    3/26RP1.13636f DMSW5th/8 -2¼L591.9-1b LLate into stride
  2. 2Kj RenegadeF. Zamora · W. GilesZamora · GilesB84 80 77▲+3≡@trip 808-1Fair 12-18%▲ Up +384 80 77 ≡@trip 80B

    Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +3 · ≡ Steady figures 77–86 · Best fig at today's trip 80 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 84 80 77

    Jockey Francisco Zamora 14% career 1-for-1 on dirt this meet · Trainer Wesley T Giles 33% career 2-for-4 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R3: Kj Macho Man 12-1, R7: Lethal Wind 9-5 · Trainer R1: Abouta Get Western 5-1, R3: Kj Macho Man 12-1, R4: Kj Casanova Cowboy 30-1, R7: Lethal Wind 9-5 +3 more
    60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORK

    Has moved up each time out, 77 to 80 to 84. Finished 7th in a 10-horse stakes race at ALB, beaten 2¼ lengths.

    PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
    WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 1F on Jul 26; 2 works in 30d

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    8/7ALB2f DFutTrl100007th/10 -2¼L8430-1b LBid; tired;
    6/27ALB1.81818f DFutTrl100004th/9 -2L8011-1b LBroke out; bumped
    5/22ALB1.59091f DFutTrl100007th/10 -1L778.3-1b LVeered in start
  3. 3Hes RustlessA. Rivera · J. StinebaughRivera · StinebaughC76 71 75▼-4↕@trip 7515-1Fair 20-15%▼ Down -476 71 75 ↕@trip 75C

    Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -4 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 71–95 · Best fig at today's trip 75 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 76 71 75

    Jockey Ali Rivera 34% career 9-for-80 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer John A Stinebaugh 36% career 10-for-52 on dirt this meet (19%) ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R1: Cowboys Love Wine 2-1, R2: Tomorrows Dynasty 9-2, R3: Candy In My Arms 6-1, R4: Curls Favorite Jet 2-1 +8 more · Trainer R1: Cowboys Love Wine 2-1, R2: Tomorrows Dynasty 9-2, R3: Candy In My Arms 6-1, R4: Curls Favorite Jet 2-1 +8 more
    Jky 15/57 from post 3

    0 for 6 at today's distance. Drops from maiden special weight to stakes nongraded.

    PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
    WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 15d ago
    RECORD Ali Rivera from post 3 here: 15 wins, 36 top-3 in 57 rides · 17% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/26LS1.59091f DMSW6th/10 -2¾L763.5-1b LNo kick
    8/8ALB2f DFutTrl1000010th/10 -4L717.6-1b LNo rally;
    6/27ALB1.81818f DFutTrl100003rd/9 by hd753.2-1b LCame in; vied; hung
  4. 4Hott Off Tha PressJ. Pulido · K. ReedPulido · ReedB84 71 69▲▲+1412-1Fair 12-17%▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best84 71 69B

    Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best · Last 3 figs 84 71 69

    Jockey Juan Pulido 44% career ★ 8-for-27 on dirt this meet (30%), #1 of 52 · Trainer Kash Reed 31% career ★ 7-for-28 on dirt this meet (25%), #3 of 67 ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R5: Im Significant 5-1, R8: Sweet Pursuit 7-2, R14: Revenant Mark 10-1 · Trainer R2: Flight History 12-1, R5: Im Significant 5-1, R6: Panther Pursuit 20-1, R8: Sweet Pursuit 7-2 +3 more
    WON LAST

    Last start was a win, in a 10-horse maiden claiming $20,000 race at LS at 1.3-1. Figures are climbing: 69, 71, 84 over its last three.

    PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 58d ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/18LS1.36364f DMCL 20kWon/10841.3-1b LBrk well;drw clr
    4/2RP1½f DsFutTrl150005th/9 -2¼L715.0-1b LStep slow at start
    3/14RP1.13636f DsMdSpWt4th/10 -¾L6914-1b LIn range;cldnt catch
  5. 5DifferentiatorM. Delgado · J. JoinerDelgado · JoinerA90 79 86▲▲+12@trip 705-1Fair 8-110%▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best90 79 86@trip 70A

    Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #8 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 70 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 90 79 86

    Jockey Mario Delgado 32% career 2-for-14 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Justin W Joiner 32% career ★ 5-for-21 on dirt this meet (24%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: My Special Blood 30-1, R2: The Cowboys A Legend 12-1, R3: Favorite Power Cc 30-1, R8: Thys Kyss 20-1 +2 more · Trainer R1: My Special Blood 30-1, R2: The Cowboys A Legend 12-1, R3: Favorite Power Cc 30-1, R4: Staggeringcowboy 7-2 +6 more
    ★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST

    Winner of a 9-horse maiden special weight race at WRD last time. Class relief: maiden special weight last time, stakes nongraded today.

    PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
    WORKS SHARP 1.5f in :16.00 on Jul 18 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/11WRD1.36364f DMSWWon/9901.8-1b LChased;bid;held late
    9/15WRD1.59091f DFutTrl50006th/8 -3L792.4-1LCrowded st;traffic
    8/8ALB2f DFutTrl100005th/8 -3½L8654-1LNo rally;
  6. 6Special to MiE. Escobedo · J. DavisEscobedo · DavisB74 89 93▼▼-17@trip 743-1Fair 4-121%▼▼ Big drop -1774 89 93@trip 74B1

    Card model 21% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #1 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -17 · Best fig at today's trip 74 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 89 93

    Jockey Edwin G Escobedo 36% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet · Trainer Joe M Davis 33% career ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R4: Cowboy Favorite 10-1 · Trainer R4: Cowboy Favorite 10-1
    ★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST

    Changes barns, from James Kevin Goodnight to Joe M Davis. 2 wins from 5 starts at this distance.

    PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
    WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on May 12 (1F in :12.00), 0 works in 30d

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/25ALB1.81818f DFutTrl8000Won/8744.0-1b LSharp effort;
    8/9WYO1.59091f DWyoGovCpFu270k6th/10 -3L8912-1b LBBroke out; no threat
    7/24WYO1.59091f DFutTrl6000Won/9933.0-1b LBBumped;dueled;best
  7. 7Bullet ProoffA. Medina · G. GonzalezMedina · GonzalezC67 70 65▲+7↕30-1Fair 30-13%▲ Up +767 70 65 ↕C

    Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +7 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 46–70 · Last 3 figs 67 70 65

    Jockey Alejandro Medina 35% career 5-for-48 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Gilberto Gonzalez 31% career 1-for-32 on dirt this meet (3%) ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R10: Cyber Intelligence 12-1 · Trainer R4: Norwalk 20-1, R6: Zendeya 30-1, R10: Cyber Intelligence 12-1

    Was running in maiden special weight; today's stakes nongraded is an easier level on paper. 0 for 5 at today's distance.

    PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 188d ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/1LS1.59091f DMSW9th/9 -4L6755-1b LFaded out
    8/15GIL1.59091f DFutTrl90006th/9 -3½L7023-1b LBroke alert no late tr
    7/10RET1.59091f DMSW7th/10 -2¾L6531-1bNo threat; eq amb
  8. 8Jess Send HerO. Martinez · R. RamirezMartinez · RamirezA97 80 76▲▲+20↕6-1Fair 8-111%▲▲ Big jump +20 · career best97 80 76 ↕A3

    Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +20 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 76–97 · Last 3 figs 97 80 76

    Jockey Oliver E Martinez 33% career 9-for-98 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Raul Ramirez 32% career 4-for-23 on dirt this meet (17%)
    Also today · Jockey R3: Bolted 15-1, R10: Hes Your Daddy 3-1 · Trainer R3: Bolted 15-1, R4: Pyc Dollars Cowboy 5-2, R6: Pilatus 30-1, R10: Hes Your Daddy 3-1
    ★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST

    Tops the field on speed figures, a 97 against 95 for the next best. Posted the fastest 1.1F work of the morning on Jul 14, in :13.20.

    PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
    SHARP LAST OUT Chart comment from the last start: Bmp st; drew clear.
    WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 1.1F on Jul 14; 0 works in 30d
    RECORD Oliver E Martinez from post 8 here: 3 wins, 6 top-3 in 34 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/9LS1.13636f DMSWWon/10972.5-1bBmp st;drew clear
    8/20RET1.59091f DMSW2nd/9 by hd801.0-1bDueled; hung late
    5/22RP1½f DMSW4th/10 -¾L764.0-1b LHard load;mid pk duel
  9. 9HerqlezJ. Olivas · R. WilsonOlivas · WilsonC80 73 83►@trip 7315-1Fair 20-15%► Steady80 73 83@trip 73C

    Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 73 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 73 83

    Jockey Jesus Olivas 21% career 3-for-24 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Renee Wilson 32% career
    Also today · Jockey R3: Walk Thru Monday 20-1, R4: Apolitical Cowgirl 20-1, R6: Artic Jewels 12-1, R10: Coco B Train 20-1 · Trainer R6: Artic Jewels 12-1, R14: Van Pelt 15-1
    60D LAYOFF

    New trainer: Clinton T Crawford had it last time, Renee Wilson now. A 83-day gap since its last race.

    PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
    WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 18d back

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    8/8ALB2f DFutTrl100007th/9 -2½L8076-1b LNo threat;
    6/27ALB1.81818f DFutTrl100006th/9 -2¼L734.2-1b LPushed out start
    5/8RP1.59091f DFutTrl150002nd/8 -½L834.0-1b L4wide duel; edged
  10. 10Sharpest ImageA. Fierro · B. HernandezFierro · HernandezA86 90 91▼-6≡@trip 869-5Fair 3-124%▼ Down -686 90 91 ≡@trip 86A2

    Card model 24% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -6 · ≡ Steady figures 86–95 · Best fig at today's trip 86 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 86 90 91

    Jockey Angel A Fierro 21% career 3-for-29 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Braulio Hernandez 31% career 2-for-15 on dirt this meet (13%)

    2nd last time, ½ length back, in a field of 10. Class relief: allowance last time, stakes nongraded today.

    PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
    WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 107d ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/10EVD1.81818f DAlw n2l2nd/10 -½L862.1-1b LBest late
    8/29DED1.59091f DsLQHBSalJuv50k3rd/6 by nk900.9-1b LLate rush; up for show
    8/8DED1.59091f DsFutTrl120003rd/9 -1½L916.7-1b LSolid try

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks
1 2 3
Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair
The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?
The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72
Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕
≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★
Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips
Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
FINISHSTART400 YARDS · DIRT · mainstraight course

LONE STAR PARK · RACE 11

UPCOMING

Trial

Field
10 runners
Purse
$10,000
Post
10:25 PM ET
Pace
Pace Vacuum
Card model top pick
#6 · 21%

Stakes, for 2-year-olds.

Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 400 Yards: 19.2

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #6 Special To Mi (a tactical type, M/L 3-1). Recent figures: 74 · 89 · 93. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #10 Sharpest Image at 9-5. Use #8 Jess Send Her in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

  • Market favourite #10 SHARPEST IMAGE (9-5) — our number has it ranked #2.
  • #10 SHARPEST IMAGE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (26.2% to their 27.3%).
  • #6 SPECIAL TO MI — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (20.2% to their 19.1%).
  • #5 DIFFERENTIATOR — our #8 number, about right at the windows (11.8% to their 12.7%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

  • The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Rhynestone Cowboy, #2 Kj Renegade, #3 Hes Rustless.

Lead
none
Press
none
Stalk
none
Close
none
No style yet
1Rhynestone Cowboy2Kj Renegade3Hes Rustless4Hott Off Tha Press5Differentiator6Special To Mi7Bullet Prooff8Jess Send Her9Herqlez10Sharpest Image

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

1
Rhynestone Cowboy
0
2
Kj Renegade
0
3
Hes Rustless
0
4
Hott Off Tha Press
0
5
Differentiator
0
6
Special To Mi
0
7
Bullet Prooff
0
8
Jess Send Her
0
9
Herqlez
0
10
Sharpest Image
0
Bet types offeredwager menu

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

EXACTA / $.50 TRIFECTA / $.10 SUPERFECTA / DAILY DOUBLE

$.50 PICK 3 (RACES 11-12-13) / $.50 PICK 5 (RACES 11-12-13-14-15)

TBredIQ shows analysis only. We don’t build tickets or suggest amounts.

BET OPTIONS

WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta

Wagers offered on this race — analysis only, no stake sizing.

For information only — not financial or wagering advice. Must be 21+ to wager where required by law. If gambling is affecting you or someone you know, help is available.