1Rhynestone Cowboy▼LSE. Navarrete · S. WoodNavarrete · WoodC65 84 59▼-6↕20-1Fair 20-15%
▼ Down -665 84 59 ↕C▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (65 vs 84)LSCard model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -6 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 59–84 · Last 3 figs 65 84 59
▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (65 vs 84)LSLongshot read: 20-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 5% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Eugenio Alberto Navarrete 1-for-18 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer S Trey Wood 28% career 4-for-28 on dirt this meet (14%)Also today · Jockey R1: Timeto Quit 30-1, R2: Rr Evil Jess 30-1, R4: Delightfully Sage 6-1, R5: Sashay My Life Away 12-1 +1 more · Trainer R1: Timeto Quit 30-1, R2: Rr Evil Jess 30-1, R3: Fearless Cowboy 7-2, R4: Delightfully Sage 6-1 +11 moreWas running in maiden special weight; today's stakes nongraded is an easier level on paper. Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 75 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/2 LS 1.59091f D MSW 9th/10 -8L 65 2.5-1 b L Rank late 5/22 ALB 1.59091f D FutTrl10000 2nd/10 84 23-1 b L Dueled; outfinished 3/26 RP 1.13636f D MSW 5th/8 -2¼L 59 1.9-1 b L Late into stride 2Kj RenegadeF. Zamora · W. GilesZamora · GilesB84 80 77▲+3≡@trip 808-1Fair 12-18%
▲ Up +384 80 77 ≡@trip 80BCard model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +3 · ≡ Steady figures 77–86 · Best fig at today's trip 80 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 84 80 77
Jockey Francisco Zamora 14% career 1-for-1 on dirt this meet · Trainer Wesley T Giles 33% career 2-for-4 on dirt this meetAlso today · Jockey R3: Kj Macho Man 12-1, R7: Lethal Wind 9-5 · Trainer R1: Abouta Get Western 5-1, R3: Kj Macho Man 12-1, R4: Kj Casanova Cowboy 30-1, R7: Lethal Wind 9-5 +3 more60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORKHas moved up each time out, 77 to 80 to 84. Finished 7th in a 10-horse stakes race at ALB, beaten 2¼ lengths.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 1F on Jul 26; 2 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/7 ALB 2f D FutTrl10000 7th/10 -2¼L 84 30-1 b L Bid; tired; 6/27 ALB 1.81818f D FutTrl10000 4th/9 -2L 80 11-1 b L Broke out; bumped 5/22 ALB 1.59091f D FutTrl10000 7th/10 -1L 77 8.3-1 b L Veered in start 3Hes RustlessA. Rivera · J. StinebaughRivera · StinebaughC76 71 75▼-4↕@trip 7515-1Fair 20-15%
▼ Down -476 71 75 ↕@trip 75CCard model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -4 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 71–95 · Best fig at today's trip 75 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 76 71 75
Jockey Ali Rivera 34% career 9-for-80 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer John A Stinebaugh 36% career 10-for-52 on dirt this meet (19%) ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R1: Cowboys Love Wine 2-1, R2: Tomorrows Dynasty 9-2, R3: Candy In My Arms 6-1, R4: Curls Favorite Jet 2-1 +8 more · Trainer R1: Cowboys Love Wine 2-1, R2: Tomorrows Dynasty 9-2, R3: Candy In My Arms 6-1, R4: Curls Favorite Jet 2-1 +8 moreJky 15/57 from post 30 for 6 at today's distance. Drops from maiden special weight to stakes nongraded.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 15d agoRECORD Ali Rivera from post 3 here: 15 wins, 36 top-3 in 57 rides · 17% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/26 LS 1.59091f D MSW 6th/10 -2¾L 76 3.5-1 b L No kick 8/8 ALB 2f D FutTrl10000 10th/10 -4L 71 7.6-1 b L No rally; 6/27 ALB 1.81818f D FutTrl10000 3rd/9 by hd 75 3.2-1 b L Came in; vied; hung 4Hott Off Tha PressJ. Pulido · K. ReedPulido · ReedB84 71 69▲▲+1412-1Fair 12-17%
▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best84 71 69BCard model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best · Last 3 figs 84 71 69
Jockey Juan Pulido 44% career ★ 8-for-27 on dirt this meet (30%), #1 of 52 · Trainer Kash Reed 31% career ★ 7-for-28 on dirt this meet (25%), #3 of 67 ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R5: Im Significant 5-1, R8: Sweet Pursuit 7-2, R14: Revenant Mark 10-1 · Trainer R2: Flight History 12-1, R5: Im Significant 5-1, R6: Panther Pursuit 20-1, R8: Sweet Pursuit 7-2 +3 moreWON LASTLast start was a win, in a 10-horse maiden claiming $20,000 race at LS at 1.3-1. Figures are climbing: 69, 71, 84 over its last three.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 58d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/18 LS 1.36364f D MCL 20k Won/10 84 1.3-1 b L Brk well;drw clr 4/2 RP 1½f D sFutTrl15000 5th/9 -2¼L 71 5.0-1 b L Step slow at start 3/14 RP 1.13636f D sMdSpWt 4th/10 -¾L 69 14-1 b L In range;cldnt catch 5DifferentiatorM. Delgado · J. JoinerDelgado · JoinerA90 79 86▲▲+12@trip 705-1Fair 8-110%
▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best90 79 86@trip 70ACard model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #8 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 70 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 90 79 86
Jockey Mario Delgado 32% career 2-for-14 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Justin W Joiner 32% career ★ 5-for-21 on dirt this meet (24%)Also today · Jockey R1: My Special Blood 30-1, R2: The Cowboys A Legend 12-1, R3: Favorite Power Cc 30-1, R8: Thys Kyss 20-1 +2 more · Trainer R1: My Special Blood 30-1, R2: The Cowboys A Legend 12-1, R3: Favorite Power Cc 30-1, R4: Staggeringcowboy 7-2 +6 more★ FASTEST WORKWON LASTWinner of a 9-horse maiden special weight race at WRD last time. Class relief: maiden special weight last time, stakes nongraded today.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.WORKS SHARP 1.5f in :16.00 on Jul 18 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/11 WRD 1.36364f D MSW Won/9 90 1.8-1 b L Chased;bid;held late 9/15 WRD 1.59091f D FutTrl5000 6th/8 -3L 79 2.4-1 L Crowded st;traffic 8/8 ALB 2f D FutTrl10000 5th/8 -3½L 86 54-1 L No rally; 6Special to MiE. Escobedo · J. DavisEscobedo · DavisB74 89 93▼▼-17@trip 743-1Fair 4-121%
▼▼ Big drop -1774 89 93@trip 74B1Card model 21% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #1 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -17 · Best fig at today's trip 74 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 89 93
★ FASTEST WORKWON LASTChanges barns, from James Kevin Goodnight to Joe M Davis. 2 wins from 5 starts at this distance.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on May 12 (1F in :12.00), 0 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/25 ALB 1.81818f D FutTrl8000 Won/8 74 4.0-1 b L Sharp effort; 8/9 WYO 1.59091f D WyoGovCpFu270k 6th/10 -3L 89 12-1 b LB Broke out; no threat 7/24 WYO 1.59091f D FutTrl6000 Won/9 93 3.0-1 b LB Bumped;dueled;best 7Bullet ProoffA. Medina · G. GonzalezMedina · GonzalezC67 70 65▲+7↕30-1Fair 30-13%
▲ Up +767 70 65 ↕CCard model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +7 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 46–70 · Last 3 figs 67 70 65
Jockey Alejandro Medina 35% career 5-for-48 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Gilberto Gonzalez 31% career 1-for-32 on dirt this meet (3%) ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R10: Cyber Intelligence 12-1 · Trainer R4: Norwalk 20-1, R6: Zendeya 30-1, R10: Cyber Intelligence 12-1Was running in maiden special weight; today's stakes nongraded is an easier level on paper. 0 for 5 at today's distance.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 188d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/1 LS 1.59091f D MSW 9th/9 -4L 67 55-1 b L Faded out 8/15 GIL 1.59091f D FutTrl9000 6th/9 -3½L 70 23-1 b L Broke alert no late tr 7/10 RET 1.59091f D MSW 7th/10 -2¾L 65 31-1 b No threat; eq amb 8Jess Send HerO. Martinez · R. RamirezMartinez · RamirezA97 80 76▲▲+20↕6-1Fair 8-111%
▲▲ Big jump +20 · career best97 80 76 ↕A3Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +20 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 76–97 · Last 3 figs 97 80 76
Jockey Oliver E Martinez 33% career 9-for-98 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Raul Ramirez 32% career 4-for-23 on dirt this meet (17%)Also today · Jockey R3: Bolted 15-1, R10: Hes Your Daddy 3-1 · Trainer R3: Bolted 15-1, R4: Pyc Dollars Cowboy 5-2, R6: Pilatus 30-1, R10: Hes Your Daddy 3-1★ FASTEST WORKWON LASTTops the field on speed figures, a 97 against 95 for the next best. Posted the fastest 1.1F work of the morning on Jul 14, in :13.20.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.SHARP LAST OUT Chart comment from the last start: Bmp st; drew clear.WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 1.1F on Jul 14; 0 works in 30dRECORD Oliver E Martinez from post 8 here: 3 wins, 6 top-3 in 34 rides · 12% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/9 LS 1.13636f D MSW Won/10 97 2.5-1 b Bmp st;drew clear 8/20 RET 1.59091f D MSW 2nd/9 by hd 80 1.0-1 b Dueled; hung late 5/22 RP 1½f D MSW 4th/10 -¾L 76 4.0-1 b L Hard load;mid pk duel 9HerqlezJ. Olivas · R. WilsonOlivas · WilsonC80 73 83►@trip 7315-1Fair 20-15%
► Steady80 73 83@trip 73CCard model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 73 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 73 83
Also today · Jockey R3: Walk Thru Monday 20-1, R4: Apolitical Cowgirl 20-1, R6: Artic Jewels 12-1, R10: Coco B Train 20-1 · Trainer R6: Artic Jewels 12-1, R14: Van Pelt 15-160D LAYOFFNew trainer: Clinton T Crawford had it last time, Renee Wilson now. A 83-day gap since its last race.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 18d backLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/8 ALB 2f D FutTrl10000 7th/9 -2½L 80 76-1 b L No threat; 6/27 ALB 1.81818f D FutTrl10000 6th/9 -2¼L 73 4.2-1 b L Pushed out start 5/8 RP 1.59091f D FutTrl15000 2nd/8 -½L 83 4.0-1 b L 4wide duel; edged 10Sharpest ImageA. Fierro · B. HernandezFierro · HernandezA86 90 91▼-6≡@trip 869-5Fair 3-124%
▼ Down -686 90 91 ≡@trip 86A2Card model 24% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -6 · ≡ Steady figures 86–95 · Best fig at today's trip 86 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 86 90 91
Jockey Angel A Fierro 21% career 3-for-29 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Braulio Hernandez 31% career 2-for-15 on dirt this meet (13%)2nd last time, ½ length back, in a field of 10. Class relief: allowance last time, stakes nongraded today.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 107d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/10 EVD 1.81818f D Alw n2l 2nd/10 -½L 86 2.1-1 b L Best late 8/29 DED 1.59091f D sLQHBSalJuv50k 3rd/6 by nk 90 0.9-1 b L Late rush; up for show 8/8 DED 1.59091f D sFutTrl12000 3rd/9 -1½L 91 6.7-1 b L Solid try
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
LONE STAR PARK · RACE 11
UPCOMINGTrial
Stakes, for 2-year-olds.
Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.
● Breed: Quarter Horse
● Track record at 400 Yards: 19.2
The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.
Our number tops on #6 Special To Mi (a tactical type, M/L 3-1). Recent figures: 74 · 89 · 93. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #10 Sharpest Image at 9-5. Use #8 Jess Send Her in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #10 SHARPEST IMAGE (9-5) — our number has it ranked #2.
- #10 SHARPEST IMAGE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (26.2% to their 27.3%).
- #6 SPECIAL TO MI — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (20.2% to their 19.1%).
- #5 DIFFERENTIATOR — our #8 number, about right at the windows (11.8% to their 12.7%).
Model vs the morning line
- The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.
and works against #1 Rhynestone Cowboy, #2 Kj Renegade, #3 Hes Rustless.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
EXACTA / $.50 TRIFECTA / $.10 SUPERFECTA / DAILY DOUBLE
$.50 PICK 3 (RACES 11-12-13) / $.50 PICK 5 (RACES 11-12-13-14-15)
BET OPTIONS
WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta