R1 Lone Star Park · Trial

6:05 PM ET · 400 Yards Dirt · $10,000 · 10 runners6:05 PM · 1.8f Dirt · 10 runners

Upcoming $10K · Trial

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles
  1. 1Rocking CowboyG. Linares · E. AlvaradoLinares · AlvaradoB91 79 87▲▲+116-1Fair 8-110%▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best91 79 87B3

    Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best · Last 3 figs 91 79 87

    Jockey Gilberto Linares 33% career 8-for-48 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Enrique Alvarado 25% career 3-for-22 on dirt this meet (14%)
    Also today · Jockey R3: Dracula 20-1, R4: Eagle On The Prey 15-1, R7: Your Flying Dreams 30-1, R8: Get Aggressive 5-1 +4 more
    WON LAST

    Winner of a 10-horse allowance race at LS last time. Drops from allowance to stakes nongraded.

    PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 230 days ago
    RECORD Gilberto Linares from post 1 here: 5 wins, 8 top-3 in 17 rides · 15% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/11LS1½f DsAlw19000n2lWon/10911.4-1b LBrk out;bmp;surge
    7/25RET1.59091f DsTQHAFutRG1 G110th/10 -10L7948-1b LStumbled start;trailed
    7/2RET1.59091f DsFutTrl10000Won/98742-1b LDrew off; driving
  2. 2Gjr EagletLSG. Pina · Z. StinebaughPina · StinebaughC8330-1Fair 20-14%—83CLS

    Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 83

    LS

    Longshot read: 30-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 4% against a line of 2%. A read, not a bet.

    Jockey Garcia Rosendo E Pina 32% career 3-for-51 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Zackary Stinebaugh 36% career 0-for-16 on dirt this meet (0%)
    Also today · Jockey R6: Sugars Flying 20-1, R9: Raptor Stone 7-2, R13: Cheyenne Stone 30-1, R14: Talego Stone 20-1 · Trainer R3: Dracula 20-1, R4: Eagle On The Prey 15-1, R7: Mister Sinatra 9-2, R10: Caliente Cowboy 123 10-1 +2 more

    Was running in maiden special weight; today's stakes nongraded is an easier level on paper. Last out was 3rd, 3 lengths behind the winner, in a 10-horse maiden special weight race at LS.

    PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
    TROUBLED TRIP Stumbld in last out; the speed figure already reflects it.
    WORKS Average work schedule for this field (0 works in 30d, last 38d ago)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/8LS1.36364f DfsMdSpWt3rd/10 -3L8310-1b LStumbld in
  3. 3Shiny FavoriteB. Candanosa · C. GandarillaCandanosa · GandarillaB84 88 72▲+420-1Fair 20-15%▲ Up +484 88 72B

    Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +4 · Last 3 figs 84 88 72

    Jockey Bryan Candanosa 36% career 3-for-18 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Chris Gandarilla 33% career 2-for-13 on dirt this meet (15%) ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R2: Flight History 12-1, R5: Gunsmoke 123 15-1, R7: Coronainthefastlanes 20-1, R12: Ab Inferno 3-1 +3 more · Trainer R15: The Walkway 30-1

    2nd of 28 at 1F on Sep 16, in :11.80. 2nd last time, 2½ lengths back, in a field of 10.

    PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    TROUBLED TRIP Stumbled; fin well last out; the speed figure already reflects it.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 44 days ago
    RECORD Bryan Candanosa from post 3 here: 6 wins, 22 top-3 in 41 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/8LS1.13636f DMSW2nd/10 -2½L840.9-1b LStumbled;fin well
    5/8RP1.59091f DFutTrl150002nd/8 by hd8814-1b LFloatd in; outdueled
    4/16RP1½f DMSW5th/10 -1¼L7248-1b LGrudgingly
  4. 4Timeto QuitE. Navarrete · S. WoodNavarrete · WoodC76@trip 7630-1Fair 50-12%—76@trip 76C

    Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Best fig at today's trip 76 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 76

    Jockey Eugenio Alberto Navarrete 1-for-18 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer S Trey Wood 28% career 4-for-28 on dirt this meet (14%)
    Also today · Jockey R2: Rr Evil Jess 30-1, R4: Delightfully Sage 6-1, R5: Sashay My Life Away 12-1, R11: Rhynestone Cowboy 20-1 +1 more · Trainer R2: Rr Evil Jess 30-1, R3: Fearless Cowboy 7-2, R4: Delightfully Sage 6-1, R5: Sashay My Life Away 12-1 +11 more
    ★ FASTEST WORK

    Fastest 1F work of its morning on Oct 10 (:11.00), a sign it is training forwardly. Finished 6th in a 10-horse stakes race at LS, beaten 5½ lengths.

    PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    WORKS SHARP 1f in :11.00 on Oct 10 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/19LS1.81818f DFutTrl100006th/10 -5½L7636-1b LClean trip;no rally
  5. 5My Special BloodM. Delgado · J. JoinerDelgado · JoinerC80 70 68▲▲+9@trip 8030-1Fair 30-14%▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best80 70 68@trip 80C

    Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 80 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 70 68

    Jockey Mario Delgado 32% career 2-for-14 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Justin W Joiner 32% career ★ 5-for-21 on dirt this meet (24%)
    Also today · Jockey R2: The Cowboys A Legend 12-1, R3: Favorite Power Cc 30-1, R8: Thys Kyss 20-1, R11: Differentiator 5-1 +2 more · Trainer R2: The Cowboys A Legend 12-1, R3: Favorite Power Cc 30-1, R4: Staggeringcowboy 7-2, R5: Gunsmoke 123 15-1 +6 more

    Has moved up each time out, 68 to 70 to 80. Winless in 4 starts at this distance.

    PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Stumbld in; bmp; short), and the figure already reflects it.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 57 days ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/10LS1.81818f DMSW3rd/98023-1b LStumbld in;bmp;short
    8/7ALB2f DFutTrl100009th/10 -7¾L7064-1b LNo threat;
    6/27ALB1.81818f DFutTrl100008th/10 -3¼L6816-1b LCrowded; bumped start
  6. 6Ratically InspyredD. Garcia · J. VazquezGarcia · VazquezC75 86 71▼-4@trip 7520-1Fair 20-15%▼ Down -475 86 71@trip 75C

    Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #4 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -4 · Best fig at today's trip 75 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 75 86 71

    Jockey Daniel X Garcia 33% career 1-for-13 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Juan L Vazquez 30% career 2-for-6 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Trainer R3: Konklusiv 2-1, R7: Reddingten 15-1, R15: Mounte Rushmore 20-1

    Daniel X Garcia takes over from Mario Delgado in the saddle. Last out was 4th, 4½ lengths behind the winner, in a 9-horse stakes race at LS.

    PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
    WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 52d ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/19LS1.81818f DFutTrl100004th/9 -4½L7511-1b LBmpd around st;evenly
    8/7ALB2f DFutTrl100003rd/10 -4L86100-1b LWinner too tuff;
    6/26ALB1.81818f DFutTrl100006th/9 -1L716.1-1b LBumped start
  7. 7Cowboys Love Wine★A. Rivera · J. StinebaughRivera · StinebaughA90 87 91▲+4@trip 902-1Fair 7-224%▲ Up +490 87 91@trip 90A★ Best at the trip 902

    Card model 24% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +4 · Best fig at today's trip 90 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 90 87 91

    ★ Best at the trip 90
    Jockey Ali Rivera 34% career 9-for-80 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer John A Stinebaugh 36% career 10-for-52 on dirt this meet (19%) ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R2: Tomorrows Dynasty 9-2, R3: Candy In My Arms 6-1, R4: Curls Favorite Jet 2-1, R5: Mae Dynasty 20-1 +8 more · Trainer R2: Tomorrows Dynasty 9-2, R3: Candy In My Arms 6-1, R4: Curls Favorite Jet 2-1, R5: Mae Dynasty 20-1 +8 more
    ★ FASTEST WORK

    Has won 3 of 6 going today's distance. Runs for $10,000 today after a $50,590 race last time.

    PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
    WORKS SHARP 1f in :12.00 on Apr 8 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d
    RECORD Ali Rivera from post 7 here: 4 wins, 13 top-3 in 43 rides · 17% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/10LS1.81818f DDshCashJuv51k2nd/10 -1½L903.2-1b LBmpd st;late 2nd
    9/19LS1.81818f DFutTrl10000Won/10 by hd874.6-1b LBroke out;just up
    8/8ALB2f DFutTrl100002nd/8 -1L913.9-1b LDrifted in 2nd best
  8. 8Abouta Get WesternL. Vivanco · W. GilesVivanco · GilesA102 92 73▲▲+20↕@trip 735-1Fair 8-110%▲▲ Big jump +20 · career best102 92 73 ↕@trip 73A

    Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #8 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +20 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 73–102 · Best fig at today's trip 73 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 102 92 73

    Jockey Luis L Vivanco 36% career 10-for-70 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Wesley T Giles 33% career 2-for-4 on dirt this meet ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R2: Mondays Best 20-1, R7: Coronas First Cowboy 2-1, R9: The Real Mvp Z 15-1, R10: Pitching Woo 20-1 +2 more · Trainer R3: Kj Macho Man 12-1, R4: Kj Casanova Cowboy 30-1, R7: Lethal Wind 9-5, R10: Kj Bigbadleroybrown 8-1 +3 more
    WON LAST

    Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 102, with 97 next best. Figures are climbing: 73, 92, 102 over its last three.

    PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 219d back)
    RECORD Luis L Vivanco from post 8 here: 4 wins, 9 top-3 in 36 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/3LS1.13636f DAlw n2lWon/91021.9-1b LDrew ahead;held
    8/8ALB2f DFutTrl100002nd/9 -½L9222-1b LBroke out; d-q last
    7/11ALB1.81818f DAlw n2l5th/9 -2¼L736.2-1b LBumped brk; evenly
  9. 9Y It EarpR. Ramirez Jr. · M. JungersRamirez Jr. · JungersB9110-1Fair 15-17%—91B

    Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 91

    Jockey Raul Jr Ramirez 33% career 7-for-53 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Marc E Jungers 32% career ★ 11-for-55 on dirt this meet (20%) ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R13: Karo Kiss 30-1, R15: Kj Money Maker 20-1 · Trainer R2: Mondays Best 20-1, R7: Coronas First Cowboy 2-1, R13: Karo Kiss 30-1, R15: Kj Money Maker 20-1
    ◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE60D LAYOFF

    Freshened 160 days, longer than anything else in the field. Watch how its recent works look. Carries 124 pounds, 5 less than last time.

    PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
    TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Bumped start; drifted), and the figure already reflects it.
    WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 21d ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    5/23ALB1.59091f DFutTrl100003rd/8 -½L9114-1LBumped start; drifted
  10. 10Fall ClassicF. Calderon · S. GonzalesCalderon · GonzalesA97 93 86▲+78-5Fair 5-229%▲ Up +7 · career best97 93 86A1

    Card model 29% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +7 · career best · Last 3 figs 97 93 86

    Jockey Francisco Calderon 37% career 8-for-41 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Sebastian Gonzales 27% career
    Also today · Jockey R2: Unblemished V 5-2, R3: Konklusiv 2-1, R4: Staggeringcowboy 7-2, R5: Marvelous Marv 3-1 +9 more · Trainer R7: Irish Lancer 20-1, R15: Lawman 123 20-1
    ★ FASTEST WORK

    Sebastian Gonzales takes over the training from Rodolfo G Valles. Runs for $10,000 today after a $200,000 race last time.

    PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
    WORKS SHARP 1.5f in :16.60 on Oct 13 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d
    RECORD Francisco Calderon from post 10 here: 8 wins, 15 top-3 in 32 rides · 19% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/7ALB2f DAllAmerJuv200k3rd/10 -1L975.8-1b LVeerd out start;closed
    8/8ALB2f DFutTrl100002nd/10 by hd931.0-1b LGame second;
    5/30RP1.59091f DHrtgPlFuG1 G1Won/9861.0-1b LSidexside;best nod

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks
1 2 3
Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair
The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?
The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72
Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕
≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★
Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips
Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
FINISHSTART400 YARDS · DIRT · mainstraight course

LONE STAR PARK · RACE 1

UPCOMING

Trial

Field
10 runners
Purse
$10,000
Post
6:05 PM ET
Pace
Pace Vacuum
Card model top pick
#10 · 29%

Stakes, for 2-year-olds.

Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 400 Yards: 19.2

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #10 Fall Classic (a tactical type, M/L 8-5). Recent figures: 97 · 93 · 86. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #7 Cowboys Love Wine at 2-1. Use #1 Rocking Cowboy in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

  • Market favourite #10 FALL CLASSIC (8-5) — our number agrees.
  • #10 FALL CLASSIC — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (29.4% to their 29.4%).
  • #7 COWBOYS LOVE WINE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (24.7% to their 25.4%).
  • #8 ABOUTA GET WESTERN — our #8 number, about right at the windows (11.9% to their 12.7%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

  • Longshot the model rates above its line: #2 GJR EAGLET (30-1) — our fair 3.0% is above the morning line's 2.5%; needs the trip to fall right.
Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Rocking Cowboy, #2 Gjr Eaglet, #3 Shiny Favorite.

Lead
none
Press
none
Stalk
none
Close
none
No style yet
1Rocking Cowboy2Gjr Eaglet3Shiny Favorite4Timeto Quit5My Special Blood6Ratically Inspyred7Cowboys Love Wine8Abouta Get Western9Y It Earp10Fall Classic

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

1
Rocking Cowboy
0
2
Gjr Eaglet
0
3
Shiny Favorite
0
4
Timeto Quit
0
5
My Special Blood
0
6
Ratically Inspyred
0
7
Cowboys Love Wine
0
8
Abouta Get Western
0
9
Y It Earp
0
10
Fall Classic
0
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