1Rocking CowboyG. Linares · E. AlvaradoLinares · AlvaradoB91 79 87▲▲+116-1Fair 8-110%
▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best91 79 87B3Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best · Last 3 figs 91 79 87
Jockey Gilberto Linares 33% career 8-for-48 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Enrique Alvarado 25% career 3-for-22 on dirt this meet (14%)Also today · Jockey R3: Dracula 20-1, R4: Eagle On The Prey 15-1, R7: Your Flying Dreams 30-1, R8: Get Aggressive 5-1 +4 moreWON LASTWinner of a 10-horse allowance race at LS last time. Drops from allowance to stakes nongraded.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 230 days agoRECORD Gilberto Linares from post 1 here: 5 wins, 8 top-3 in 17 rides · 15% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/11 LS 1½f D sAlw19000n2l Won/10 91 1.4-1 b L Brk out;bmp;surge 7/25 RET 1.59091f D sTQHAFutRG1 G1 10th/10 -10L 79 48-1 b L Stumbled start;trailed 7/2 RET 1.59091f D sFutTrl10000 Won/9 87 42-1 b L Drew off; driving 2Gjr EagletLSG. Pina · Z. StinebaughPina · StinebaughC8330-1Fair 20-14%
—83CLSCard model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 83
LSLongshot read: 30-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 4% against a line of 2%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Garcia Rosendo E Pina 32% career 3-for-51 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Zackary Stinebaugh 36% career 0-for-16 on dirt this meet (0%)Also today · Jockey R6: Sugars Flying 20-1, R9: Raptor Stone 7-2, R13: Cheyenne Stone 30-1, R14: Talego Stone 20-1 · Trainer R3: Dracula 20-1, R4: Eagle On The Prey 15-1, R7: Mister Sinatra 9-2, R10: Caliente Cowboy 123 10-1 +2 moreWas running in maiden special weight; today's stakes nongraded is an easier level on paper. Last out was 3rd, 3 lengths behind the winner, in a 10-horse maiden special weight race at LS.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.TROUBLED TRIP Stumbld in last out; the speed figure already reflects it.WORKS Average work schedule for this field (0 works in 30d, last 38d ago)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/8 LS 1.36364f D fsMdSpWt 3rd/10 -3L 83 10-1 b L Stumbld in 3Shiny FavoriteB. Candanosa · C. GandarillaCandanosa · GandarillaB84 88 72▲+420-1Fair 20-15%
▲ Up +484 88 72BCard model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +4 · Last 3 figs 84 88 72
Jockey Bryan Candanosa 36% career 3-for-18 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Chris Gandarilla 33% career 2-for-13 on dirt this meet (15%) ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R2: Flight History 12-1, R5: Gunsmoke 123 15-1, R7: Coronainthefastlanes 20-1, R12: Ab Inferno 3-1 +3 more · Trainer R15: The Walkway 30-12nd of 28 at 1F on Sep 16, in :11.80. 2nd last time, 2½ lengths back, in a field of 10.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.TROUBLED TRIP Stumbled; fin well last out; the speed figure already reflects it.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 44 days agoRECORD Bryan Candanosa from post 3 here: 6 wins, 22 top-3 in 41 rides · 16% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/8 LS 1.13636f D MSW 2nd/10 -2½L 84 0.9-1 b L Stumbled;fin well 5/8 RP 1.59091f D FutTrl15000 2nd/8 by hd 88 14-1 b L Floatd in; outdueled 4/16 RP 1½f D MSW 5th/10 -1¼L 72 48-1 b L Grudgingly 4Timeto QuitE. Navarrete · S. WoodNavarrete · WoodC76@trip 7630-1Fair 50-12%
—76@trip 76CCard model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Best fig at today's trip 76 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 76
Jockey Eugenio Alberto Navarrete 1-for-18 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer S Trey Wood 28% career 4-for-28 on dirt this meet (14%)Also today · Jockey R2: Rr Evil Jess 30-1, R4: Delightfully Sage 6-1, R5: Sashay My Life Away 12-1, R11: Rhynestone Cowboy 20-1 +1 more · Trainer R2: Rr Evil Jess 30-1, R3: Fearless Cowboy 7-2, R4: Delightfully Sage 6-1, R5: Sashay My Life Away 12-1 +11 more★ FASTEST WORKFastest 1F work of its morning on Oct 10 (:11.00), a sign it is training forwardly. Finished 6th in a 10-horse stakes race at LS, beaten 5½ lengths.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.WORKS SHARP 1f in :11.00 on Oct 10 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/19 LS 1.81818f D FutTrl10000 6th/10 -5½L 76 36-1 b L Clean trip;no rally 5My Special BloodM. Delgado · J. JoinerDelgado · JoinerC80 70 68▲▲+9@trip 8030-1Fair 30-14%
▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best80 70 68@trip 80CCard model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 80 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 70 68
Jockey Mario Delgado 32% career 2-for-14 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Justin W Joiner 32% career ★ 5-for-21 on dirt this meet (24%)Also today · Jockey R2: The Cowboys A Legend 12-1, R3: Favorite Power Cc 30-1, R8: Thys Kyss 20-1, R11: Differentiator 5-1 +2 more · Trainer R2: The Cowboys A Legend 12-1, R3: Favorite Power Cc 30-1, R4: Staggeringcowboy 7-2, R5: Gunsmoke 123 15-1 +6 moreHas moved up each time out, 68 to 70 to 80. Winless in 4 starts at this distance.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Stumbld in; bmp; short), and the figure already reflects it.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 57 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/10 LS 1.81818f D MSW 3rd/9 80 23-1 b L Stumbld in;bmp;short 8/7 ALB 2f D FutTrl10000 9th/10 -7¾L 70 64-1 b L No threat; 6/27 ALB 1.81818f D FutTrl10000 8th/10 -3¼L 68 16-1 b L Crowded; bumped start 6Ratically InspyredD. Garcia · J. VazquezGarcia · VazquezC75 86 71▼-4@trip 7520-1Fair 20-15%
▼ Down -475 86 71@trip 75CCard model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #4 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -4 · Best fig at today's trip 75 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 75 86 71
Jockey Daniel X Garcia 33% career 1-for-13 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Juan L Vazquez 30% career 2-for-6 on dirt this meetDaniel X Garcia takes over from Mario Delgado in the saddle. Last out was 4th, 4½ lengths behind the winner, in a 9-horse stakes race at LS.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 52d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/19 LS 1.81818f D FutTrl10000 4th/9 -4½L 75 11-1 b L Bmpd around st;evenly 8/7 ALB 2f D FutTrl10000 3rd/10 -4L 86 100-1 b L Winner too tuff; 6/26 ALB 1.81818f D FutTrl10000 6th/9 -1L 71 6.1-1 b L Bumped start 7Cowboys Love Wine★A. Rivera · J. StinebaughRivera · StinebaughA90 87 91▲+4@trip 902-1Fair 7-224%
▲ Up +490 87 91@trip 90A★ Best at the trip 902Card model 24% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +4 · Best fig at today's trip 90 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 90 87 91
★ Best at the trip 90Jockey Ali Rivera 34% career 9-for-80 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer John A Stinebaugh 36% career 10-for-52 on dirt this meet (19%) ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R2: Tomorrows Dynasty 9-2, R3: Candy In My Arms 6-1, R4: Curls Favorite Jet 2-1, R5: Mae Dynasty 20-1 +8 more · Trainer R2: Tomorrows Dynasty 9-2, R3: Candy In My Arms 6-1, R4: Curls Favorite Jet 2-1, R5: Mae Dynasty 20-1 +8 more★ FASTEST WORKHas won 3 of 6 going today's distance. Runs for $10,000 today after a $50,590 race last time.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.WORKS SHARP 1f in :12.00 on Apr 8 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30dRECORD Ali Rivera from post 7 here: 4 wins, 13 top-3 in 43 rides · 17% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/10 LS 1.81818f D DshCashJuv51k 2nd/10 -1½L 90 3.2-1 b L Bmpd st;late 2nd 9/19 LS 1.81818f D FutTrl10000 Won/10 by hd 87 4.6-1 b L Broke out;just up 8/8 ALB 2f D FutTrl10000 2nd/8 -1L 91 3.9-1 b L Drifted in 2nd best 8Abouta Get WesternL. Vivanco · W. GilesVivanco · GilesA102 92 73▲▲+20↕@trip 735-1Fair 8-110%
▲▲ Big jump +20 · career best102 92 73 ↕@trip 73ACard model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #8 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +20 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 73–102 · Best fig at today's trip 73 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 102 92 73
Jockey Luis L Vivanco 36% career 10-for-70 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Wesley T Giles 33% career 2-for-4 on dirt this meet ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R2: Mondays Best 20-1, R7: Coronas First Cowboy 2-1, R9: The Real Mvp Z 15-1, R10: Pitching Woo 20-1 +2 more · Trainer R3: Kj Macho Man 12-1, R4: Kj Casanova Cowboy 30-1, R7: Lethal Wind 9-5, R10: Kj Bigbadleroybrown 8-1 +3 moreWON LASTBest Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 102, with 97 next best. Figures are climbing: 73, 92, 102 over its last three.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 219d back)RECORD Luis L Vivanco from post 8 here: 4 wins, 9 top-3 in 36 rides · 12% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/3 LS 1.13636f D Alw n2l Won/9 102 1.9-1 b L Drew ahead;held 8/8 ALB 2f D FutTrl10000 2nd/9 -½L 92 22-1 b L Broke out; d-q last 7/11 ALB 1.81818f D Alw n2l 5th/9 -2¼L 73 6.2-1 b L Bumped brk; evenly 9Y It EarpR. Ramirez Jr. · M. JungersRamirez Jr. · JungersB9110-1Fair 15-17%
—91BCard model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 91
Jockey Raul Jr Ramirez 33% career 7-for-53 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Marc E Jungers 32% career ★ 11-for-55 on dirt this meet (20%) ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R13: Karo Kiss 30-1, R15: Kj Money Maker 20-1 · Trainer R2: Mondays Best 20-1, R7: Coronas First Cowboy 2-1, R13: Karo Kiss 30-1, R15: Kj Money Maker 20-1◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE60D LAYOFFFreshened 160 days, longer than anything else in the field. Watch how its recent works look. Carries 124 pounds, 5 less than last time.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Bumped start; drifted), and the figure already reflects it.WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 21d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 5/23 ALB 1.59091f D FutTrl10000 3rd/8 -½L 91 14-1 L Bumped start; drifted 10Fall ClassicF. Calderon · S. GonzalesCalderon · GonzalesA97 93 86▲+78-5Fair 5-229%
▲ Up +7 · career best97 93 86A1Card model 29% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +7 · career best · Last 3 figs 97 93 86
Jockey Francisco Calderon 37% career 8-for-41 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Sebastian Gonzales 27% careerAlso today · Jockey R2: Unblemished V 5-2, R3: Konklusiv 2-1, R4: Staggeringcowboy 7-2, R5: Marvelous Marv 3-1 +9 more · Trainer R7: Irish Lancer 20-1, R15: Lawman 123 20-1★ FASTEST WORKSebastian Gonzales takes over the training from Rodolfo G Valles. Runs for $10,000 today after a $200,000 race last time.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.WORKS SHARP 1.5f in :16.60 on Oct 13 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30dRECORD Francisco Calderon from post 10 here: 8 wins, 15 top-3 in 32 rides · 19% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/7 ALB 2f D AllAmerJuv200k 3rd/10 -1L 97 5.8-1 b L Veerd out start;closed 8/8 ALB 2f D FutTrl10000 2nd/10 by hd 93 1.0-1 b L Game second; 5/30 RP 1.59091f D HrtgPlFuG1 G1 Won/9 86 1.0-1 b L Sidexside;best nod
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
LONE STAR PARK · RACE 1
UPCOMINGTrial
Stakes, for 2-year-olds.
Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.
● Breed: Quarter Horse
● Track record at 400 Yards: 19.2
The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.
Our number tops on #10 Fall Classic (a tactical type, M/L 8-5). Recent figures: 97 · 93 · 86. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #7 Cowboys Love Wine at 2-1. Use #1 Rocking Cowboy in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #10 FALL CLASSIC (8-5) — our number agrees.
- #10 FALL CLASSIC — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (29.4% to their 29.4%).
- #7 COWBOYS LOVE WINE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (24.7% to their 25.4%).
- #8 ABOUTA GET WESTERN — our #8 number, about right at the windows (11.9% to their 12.7%).
Model vs the morning line
- Longshot the model rates above its line: #2 GJR EAGLET (30-1) — our fair 3.0% is above the morning line's 2.5%; needs the trip to fall right.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.
and works against #1 Rocking Cowboy, #2 Gjr Eaglet, #3 Shiny Favorite.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
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$.50 PICK 3 (RACES 1-2-3)
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