R2 Lone Star Park · Trial

6:31 PM ET · 400 Yards Dirt · $10,000 · 9 runners6:31 PM · 1.8f Dirt · 9 runners

Upcoming $10K · Trial

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles
  1. 1The Cowboys a LegendM. Delgado · J. JoinerDelgado · JoinerB90 85 79▲▲+12@trip 7112-1Fair 15-16%▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best90 85 79@trip 71B

    Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 71 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 90 85 79

    Jockey Mario Delgado 32% career 2-for-14 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Justin W Joiner 32% career ★ 5-for-21 on dirt this meet (24%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: My Special Blood 30-1, R3: Favorite Power Cc 30-1, R8: Thys Kyss 20-1, R11: Differentiator 5-1 +2 more · Trainer R1: My Special Blood 30-1, R3: Favorite Power Cc 30-1, R4: Staggeringcowboy 7-2, R5: Gunsmoke 123 15-1 +6 more

    Runs for $10,000 today after a $30,000 race last time. Figures are climbing: 79, 85, 90 over its last three.

    PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 93 days ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/28WRD1.59091f DWRDJuvChal30k4th/10 -3L908.4-1b LOff slow;gaining late
    9/15WRD1.59091f DFutTrl5000Won/9856.4-1b LVied early;proved best
    8/7ALB2f DFutTrl100007th/10 -3¼L7918-1b LIn close; faded;
  2. 2Mondays BestL. Vivanco · M. JungersVivanco · JungersB88 78 65▲▲+11↕@trip 6520-1Fair 20-14%▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best88 78 65 ↕@trip 65B

    Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 65–88 · Best fig at today's trip 65 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 88 78 65

    Jockey Luis L Vivanco 36% career 10-for-70 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Marc E Jungers 32% career ★ 11-for-55 on dirt this meet (20%) ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R1: Abouta Get Western 5-1, R7: Coronas First Cowboy 2-1, R9: The Real Mvp Z 15-1, R10: Pitching Woo 20-1 +2 more · Trainer R1: Y It Earp 10-1, R7: Coronas First Cowboy 2-1, R13: Karo Kiss 30-1, R15: Kj Money Maker 20-1
    WON LAST

    Winner of a 10-horse maiden special weight race at LS last time. Has moved up each time out, 65 to 78 to 88.

    PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 55d back)
    RECORD Luis L Vivanco from post 2 here: 6 wins, 14 top-3 in 40 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/24LS1½f DfsMdSpWtWon/10881.0-1b LBmp st;drw off
    8/7ALB2f DFutTrl100007th/10 -4¼L7860-1b LNo final kick;
    6/26ALB1.81818f DFutTrl100005th/9 -3L658.7-1b LBroke in bumped
  3. 3La Golden Eagle▼LSR. Castro · S. MendozaCastro · MendozaC73 83 82▼-7@trip 7320-1Fair 15-16%▼ Down -773 83 82@trip 73C▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (73 vs 83)LS

    Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -7 · Best fig at today's trip 73 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 83 82

    ▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (73 vs 83)LS

    Longshot read: 20-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 6% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.

    Jockey Ruben Castro 24% career 1-for-11 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Samuel Mendoza 32% career 1-for-5 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R5: Expensive Toro 4-5 · Trainer R13: Nostalgic 30-1
    ★ FASTEST WORK

    Winless in 4 starts at this distance. The Apr 10 work, 1F in :12.00, was the best time at that distance that morning.

    PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    WORKS SHARP 1f in :12.00 on Apr 10 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/19LS1.81818f DFutTrl100008th/10 -6L7312-1bAntsy;hop st;wknd
    5/16SRP1.59091f D4CornerFut203k6th/10 -1¾L8354-1b LNo threat;
    4/24SRP1.59091f DFutTrl60002nd/9 by hd821.7-1b LGame 2nd
  4. 4Rr Evil JessE. Navarrete · S. WoodNavarrete · WoodC7530-1Fair 30-13%—75C

    Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 75

    Jockey Eugenio Alberto Navarrete 1-for-18 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer S Trey Wood 28% career 4-for-28 on dirt this meet (14%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: Timeto Quit 30-1, R4: Delightfully Sage 6-1, R5: Sashay My Life Away 12-1, R11: Rhynestone Cowboy 20-1 +1 more · Trainer R1: Timeto Quit 30-1, R3: Fearless Cowboy 7-2, R4: Delightfully Sage 6-1, R5: Sashay My Life Away 12-1 +11 more

    Drops from maiden special weight to stakes nongraded. Worked 1.5F in :17.00 on Aug 16, 3rd of 12 at the distance.

    PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
    WORKS Routine prep: 0 works in 30d, last 34d ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/9LS1.13636f DMSW7th/10 -4L756.6-1b LStmbled;bmp twice
  5. 5Limites Sin BN. Villatoro · A. GuzmanVillatoro · GuzmanA96 78 82▲▲+127-5Fair 5-229%▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best96 78 82A1

    Card model 29% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best · Last 3 figs 96 78 82

    Jockey Noe Villatoro 30% career 9-for-61 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Adan Guzman 26% career ★ 7-for-29 on dirt this meet (24%)
    Also today · Jockey R15: Cr Favorite Tequila 10-1
    60D LAYOFFWON LASTJky 6/49 from post 5

    Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 96, with 94 next best. Won last out in a 9-horse allowance race at RET.

    PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    SHARP LAST OUT Chart comment from the last start: Drew off; driving.
    WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 20d back
    RECORD Noe Villatoro from post 5 here: 6 wins, 14 top-3 in 49 rides · 8% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    8/13RET1.59091f DAlw n2lWon/9961.6-1b LDrew off; driving
    7/2RET1.59091f DsFutTrl100002nd/9 -2L780.6-1b LBid; second best
    6/13HOU1.59091f DSmHouFutG2 G25th/10 -¾L8211-1b LBobbled start
  6. 6Flight HistoryB. Candanosa · K. ReedCandanosa · ReedC67 81 91▼▼-13↕@trip 6812-1Fair 15-16%▼▼ Big drop -1367 81 91 ↕@trip 68C

    Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -13 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 67–91 · Best fig at today's trip 68 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 67 81 91

    Jockey Bryan Candanosa 36% career 3-for-18 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Kash Reed 31% career ★ 7-for-28 on dirt this meet (25%), #3 of 67 ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R1: Shiny Favorite 20-1, R5: Gunsmoke 123 15-1, R7: Coronainthefastlanes 20-1, R12: Ab Inferno 3-1 +3 more · Trainer R5: Im Significant 5-1, R6: Panther Pursuit 20-1, R8: Sweet Pursuit 7-2, R9: King Baja 20-1 +3 more
    ◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE

    Jockey switch: Francisco Calderon last out, Bryan Candanosa today. Trending the wrong way on speed, 91 to 81 to 67.

    PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
    TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Blocked; gave way), and the figure already reflects it.
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 93d back)
    RECORD Bryan Candanosa from post 6 here: 2 wins, 13 top-3 in 35 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/19LS1.81818f DFutTrl100006th/10 -2¼L674.3-1b LBlocked;gave way
    8/30GIL1.59091f DGilCFaiFut203k9th/10 -2½L814.4-1b LSloppy going no threat
    8/15GIL1.59091f DFutTrl9000Won/9911.6-1b LNo trbls headed surged
  7. 7Unblemished VF. Calderon · J. NunezCalderon · NunezA81 86 94▼-4@trip 815-2Fair 7-222%▼ Down -481 86 94@trip 81A2

    Card model 22% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -4 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 86 94

    Jockey Francisco Calderon 37% career 8-for-41 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Jesus Nunez 27% career
    Also today · Jockey R1: Fall Classic 8-5, R3: Konklusiv 2-1, R4: Staggeringcowboy 7-2, R5: Marvelous Marv 3-1 +9 more · Trainer R13: El Huracano V 1-1
    60D LAYOFFWON LAST

    126 days since the last start, the longest layoff in here, so it needs the works to say it's ready. New trainer: Raymond G Valerio had it last time, Jesus Nunez now.

    PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
    SHARP LAST OUT Dueled; proved best last out, and it did it the right way.
    WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 17d back
    RECORD Francisco Calderon from post 7 here: 3 wins, 12 top-3 in 31 rides · 19% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    6/26ALB1.81818f DFutTrl10000Won/9811.6-1bDueled; proved best
    5/22ALB1.59091f DFutTrl10000Won/9861.3-1b LStumbled;bumped;surged
    4/12LA1f DMSWWon/6940.6-1bAway well;drftd;best
  8. 8Jess Sissy CartelR. Hernandez Jr. · J. SanchezHernandez Jr. · SanchezA88 83 92►≡6-1Fair 8-111%► Steady88 83 92 ≡A

    Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 83–92 · Last 3 figs 88 83 92

    Jockey Raul Padilla Jr Hernandez 38% career ★ 11-for-55 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Jose Luis Iii Sanchez 34% career 5-for-42 on dirt this meet (12%) ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R12: Goldmining 12-1 · Trainer R5: Marvelous Marv 3-1, R8: Get Aggressive 5-1, R9: Hesawthebatsignal 5-1, R12: Goldmining 12-1 +1 more

    Raul Padilla Jr Hernandez takes over from Francisco Calderon in the saddle. 0 for 8 at today's distance.

    PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 252d back)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/25LS1½f DsMdSpWt2nd/10881.9-1b LUp early;outfnshd
    8/20RET1.59091f DMSW3rd/10 -½L830.5-1b LBid; out finished
    7/25RET1.59091f DsTQHAFutRG1 G16th/10 -5L9267-1b LBumped hard late
  9. 9Tomorrows Dynasty★A. Rivera · J. StinebaughRivera · StinebaughB86 80 82▲+7@trip 829-2Fair 6-114%▲ Up +786 80 82@trip 82B★ Best at the trip 823

    Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +7 · Best fig at today's trip 82 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 86 80 82

    ★ Best at the trip 82
    Jockey Ali Rivera 34% career 9-for-80 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer John A Stinebaugh 36% career 10-for-52 on dirt this meet (19%) ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R1: Cowboys Love Wine 2-1, R3: Candy In My Arms 6-1, R4: Curls Favorite Jet 2-1, R5: Mae Dynasty 20-1 +8 more · Trainer R1: Cowboys Love Wine 2-1, R3: Candy In My Arms 6-1, R4: Curls Favorite Jet 2-1, R5: Mae Dynasty 20-1 +8 more

    Was running in allowance; today's stakes nongraded is an easier level on paper. 3rd of 7 at 1F on May 5, in :12.80.

    PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
    WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 42d ago
    RECORD Ali Rivera from post 9 here: 6 wins, 19 top-3 in 49 rides · 17% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/17LS1.59091f DAlw nc5th/8 -2L867.0-1b LLacked punch
    8/8ALB2f DFutTrl100006th/10 -2¼L802.9-1b LLugged in d-q ed
    7/11ALB1.81818f DAlw n2lWon/9823.8-1b LStrong late surge

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks
1 2 3
Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair
The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?
The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72
Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕
≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★
Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips
Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
FINISHSTART400 YARDS · DIRT · mainstraight course

LONE STAR PARK · RACE 2

UPCOMING

Trial

Field
9 runners
Purse
$10,000
Post
6:31 PM ET
Pace
Pace Vacuum
Card model top pick
#5 · 29%

Stakes, for 2-year-olds.

Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 400 Yards: 19.2

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #5 Limites Sin B (a tactical type, M/L 7-5). Recent figures: 96 · 78 · 82. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #7 Unblemished V at 5-2. Use #9 Tomorrows Dynasty in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

  • Market favourite #5 LIMITES SIN B (7-5) — our number agrees.
  • #5 LIMITES SIN B — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (30.8% to their 31.8%).
  • #7 UNBLEMISHED V — our #2 number, about right at the windows (22.1% to their 21.8%).
  • #9 TOMORROWS DYNASTY — our #3 number, about right at the windows (14.0% to their 13.9%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

  • Longshot the model rates above its line: #3 LA GOLDEN EAGLE (20-1) — our fair 4.2% is above the morning line's 3.6%; needs the trip to fall right.
Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 The Cowboys A Legend, #2 Mondays Best, #3 La Golden Eagle.

Lead
none
Press
none
Stalk
none
Close
none
No style yet
1The Cowboys A Legend2Mondays Best3La Golden Eagle4Rr Evil Jess5Limites Sin B6Flight History7Unblemished V8Jess Sissy Cartel9Tomorrows Dynasty

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

1
The Cowboys A Legend
0
2
Mondays Best
0
3
La Golden Eagle
0
4
Rr Evil Jess
0
5
Limites Sin B
0
6
Flight History
0
7
Unblemished V
0
8
Jess Sissy Cartel
0
9
Tomorrows Dynasty
0
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Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

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$.50 PICK 3 (RACES 2-3-4) / $.50 PICK 4 (RACES 2-3-4-5)

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