R4 Lone Star Park · Trial

7:23 PM ET · 400 Yards Dirt · $10,000 · 10 runners7:23 PM · 1.8f Dirt · 10 runners

Upcoming $10K · Trial

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #9 Delightfully Sage (6-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 90 from 2 tries. Not in our top three.

  1. 1Eagle on the PreyLSG. Linares · Z. StinebaughLinares · StinebaughB86 87 82►≡15-1Fair 15-16%► Steady86 87 82 ≡BLS

    Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 82–87 · Last 3 figs 86 87 82

    LS

    Longshot read: 15-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 6% against a line of 5%. A read, not a bet.

    Jockey Gilberto Linares 33% career 8-for-48 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Zackary Stinebaugh 36% career 0-for-16 on dirt this meet (0%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: Rocking Cowboy 6-1, R3: Dracula 20-1, R7: Your Flying Dreams 30-1, R8: Get Aggressive 5-1 +4 more · Trainer R1: Gjr Eaglet 30-1, R3: Dracula 20-1, R7: Mister Sinatra 9-2, R10: Caliente Cowboy 123 10-1 +2 more
    ★ FASTEST WORK

    Class relief: allowance last time, stakes nongraded today. Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power.

    PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
    WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 1F on Jun 23; 0 works in 30d
    RECORD Gilberto Linares from post 1 here: 5 wins, 8 top-3 in 17 rides · 15% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/16LS1.59091f DAlw n2l5th/9 -3¼L865.3-1b LBmpd st;imprvd
    8/7ALB2f DFutTrl100004th/10 -2L877.9-1b LBid; tired;
    7/10RET1.59091f DAlw n2l3rd/9 by nk822.8-1b LDueled; hung late
  2. 2Cowboy Favorite▼E. Escobedo · J. DavisEscobedo · DavisC70 89 97▼▼-25↕@trip 7010-1Fair 10-110%▼▼ Big drop -2570 89 97 ↕@trip 70C▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (70 vs 89)2

    Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #2 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -25 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 70–100 · Best fig at today's trip 70 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 70 89 97

    ▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (70 vs 89)
    Jockey Edwin G Escobedo 36% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet · Trainer Joe M Davis 33% career ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R11: Special To Mi 3-1 · Trainer R11: Special To Mi 3-1

    Joe M Davis takes over the training from James Kevin Goodnight. Trending the wrong way on speed, 97 to 89 to 70.

    PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 45 days ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/25ALB1.81818f DFutTrl80006th/8 -2¼L705.2-1b LFaded;
    7/24WYO1.59091f DFutTrl6000Won/10890.6-1b LBBrushed; clear;drifted
    6/28WYO1.36364f D307OpenFut298k2nd/10 by nk976.2-1b LBJust missed
  3. 3StaggeringcowboyF. Calderon · J. JoinerCalderon · JoinerA85 88 92▲+5↕@trip 887-2Fair 5-116%▲ Up +585 88 92 ↕@trip 88A

    Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +5 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 60–92 · Best fig at today's trip 88 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 85 88 92

    Jockey Francisco Calderon 37% career 8-for-41 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Justin W Joiner 32% career ★ 5-for-21 on dirt this meet (24%) ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R1: Fall Classic 8-5, R2: Unblemished V 5-2, R3: Konklusiv 2-1, R5: Marvelous Marv 3-1 +9 more · Trainer R1: My Special Blood 30-1, R2: The Cowboys A Legend 12-1, R3: Favorite Power Cc 30-1, R5: Gunsmoke 123 15-1 +6 more

    Purse drops from $455,310 to $10,000 against its last start. Figures have slipped: 92, 88, 85 over its last three.

    PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 57d back)
    RECORD Francisco Calderon from post 3 here: 9 wins, 17 top-3 in 36 rides · 19% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/10LS1.81818f DDshCshFuG2 G26th/9 -4½L8524-1b LLacked rally
    9/19LS1.81818f DFutTrl100002nd/9 -1L883.0-1b LBmp bth sides;lte kick
    8/7ALB2f DFutTrl10000Won/89222-1b LSteady urging;
  4. 4NorwalkJ. Herbert · G. GonzalezHerbert · GonzalezB89 87 77▲▲+10@trip 7420-1Fair 20-15%▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best89 87 77@trip 74B

    Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 74 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 89 87 77

    Jockey Jose R Herbert 32% career 1-for-29 on dirt this meet (3%) · Trainer Gilberto Gonzalez 31% career 1-for-32 on dirt this meet (3%)
    Also today · Jockey R6: Zendeya 30-1 · Trainer R6: Zendeya 30-1, R10: Cyber Intelligence 12-1, R11: Bullet Prooff 30-1
    WON LAST

    Last start was a win, in a 10-horse maiden special weight race at LS at 5.3-1. Figures are climbing: 77, 87, 89 over its last three.

    PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
    WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 252d ago
    RECORD Jose R Herbert from post 4 here: 1 win, 3 top-3 in 16 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/8LS1.59091f DMSWWon/10895.3-1b LBrk in;closed up
    9/18LS1½f DMSW2nd/8 -1L8711-1b LNo match winner
    8/15GIL1.59091f DFutTrl90004th/9 -3¼L7721-1b LClean steady effort
  5. 5Kj Casanova CowboyG. Medrano · W. GilesMedrano · GilesC6730-1Fair 50-12%—67C

    Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 67

    Jockey Gabriel Medrano 22% career · Trainer Wesley T Giles 33% career 2-for-4 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R10: Kj Bigbadleroybrown 8-1, R13: Shellys Valiant Boy 15-1, R15: Whole Lota Macho 15-1 · Trainer R1: Abouta Get Western 5-1, R3: Kj Macho Man 12-1, R7: Lethal Wind 9-5, R10: Kj Bigbadleroybrown 8-1 +3 more
    60D LAYOFF

    Gabriel Medrano takes over from Christian Ramos in the saddle. A 63-day gap since its last race.

    PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Bobble brk; drft; no bid), and the figure already reflects it.
    WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 17d ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    8/28ALB1.59091f DMSW7th/8 -5L679.4-1b LBobble brk;drft;no bid
  6. 6Curls Favorite JetA. Rivera · J. StinebaughRivera · StinebaughA103 82 82▲▲+20↕2-1Fair 7-222%▲▲ Big jump +20 · career best103 82 82 ↕A3

    Card model 22% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +20 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 82–103 · Last 3 figs 103 82 82

    Jockey Ali Rivera 34% career 9-for-80 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer John A Stinebaugh 36% career 10-for-52 on dirt this meet (19%) ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R1: Cowboys Love Wine 2-1, R2: Tomorrows Dynasty 9-2, R3: Candy In My Arms 6-1, R5: Mae Dynasty 20-1 +8 more · Trainer R1: Cowboys Love Wine 2-1, R2: Tomorrows Dynasty 9-2, R3: Candy In My Arms 6-1, R5: Mae Dynasty 20-1 +8 more
    ★ FASTEST WORKWON LASTJky 17/59 from post 6

    Tops the field on speed figures, a 103 against 100 for the next best. 3 wins from 5 starts at this distance.

    PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Jul 9 (1F in :11.40), 0 works in 30d
    RECORD Ali Rivera from post 6 here: 17 wins, 33 top-3 in 59 rides · 17% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/2LS1½f DAlw n1xWon/101031.1-1b LBmp st;edged clear
    8/7ALB2f DFutTrl100006th/10 -5¾L8215-1b LNo rally;
    5/30RP1.59091f DHrtgPlFuG1 G15th/9 by nk827.9-1b LClose up;outdueled
  7. 7Cowgirl FantasyC. Aguilar · F. Campos Jr.Aguilar · Campos Jr.C80 74 65▲+7@trip 8030-1Fair 30-13%▲ Up +7 · career best80 74 65@trip 80C

    Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +7 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 80 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 74 65

    Jockey Claudio Ponce Aguilar 30% career 5-for-64 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Francisco Jr Campos 28% career 0-for-7 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R8: First Tartanero Jess 6-1

    0 for 4 at today's distance. Has moved up each time out, 65 to 74 to 80.

    PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
    WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 29d back
    RECORD Claudio Ponce Aguilar from post 7 here: 5 wins, 13 top-3 in 37 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/3LS1.81818f DMSW5th/10 -¾L8024-1b LNeeded more
    7/31RET1.36364f DMSW4th/10 -2L743.3-1bNo menace
    5/23HOU1.59091f DFutTrl100008th/10 -4¾L6517-1b LNo threat
  8. 8Apolitical CowgirlJ. Olivas · J. GonzalesOlivas · GonzalesC79 8120-1Fair 20-14%—79 81C

    Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 79 81

    Jockey Jesus Olivas 21% career 3-for-24 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer James Julian Ii Gonzales 27% career 1-for-15 on dirt this meet (7%)
    Also today · Jockey R3: Walk Thru Monday 20-1, R6: Artic Jewels 12-1, R10: Coco B Train 20-1, R11: Herqlez 15-1 · Trainer R3: Walk Thru Monday 20-1, R10: Coco B Train 20-1
    60D LAYOFF

    Returns from a 118-day break, the biggest in the field. Finished 4th in a 9-horse stakes race at GIL, beaten ¾ length.

    PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
    WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on May 6 (1.1F in :13.60), 1 work in 30d

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    7/4GIL1.59091f DFutTrl90004th/9 -¾L792.7-1b LBroke alert gaveway
    5/28RP1½f DMCL 30kWon/9810.8-1b LDueled;dug in;got nod
  9. 9Delightfully Sage★E. Navarrete · S. WoodNavarrete · WoodA86 90 82▲+5@trip 906-1Fair 7-112%▲ Up +586 90 82@trip 90A★ Best at the trip 90

    Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +5 · Best fig at today's trip 90 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 86 90 82

    ★ Best at the trip 90
    Jockey Eugenio Alberto Navarrete 1-for-18 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer S Trey Wood 28% career 4-for-28 on dirt this meet (14%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: Timeto Quit 30-1, R2: Rr Evil Jess 30-1, R5: Sashay My Life Away 12-1, R11: Rhynestone Cowboy 20-1 +1 more · Trainer R1: Timeto Quit 30-1, R2: Rr Evil Jess 30-1, R3: Fearless Cowboy 7-2, R5: Sashay My Life Away 12-1 +11 more
    60D LAYOFF

    4th last time, 1½ lengths back, in a field of 10. Off 84 days since the last start.

    PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
    WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 21d back

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    8/7ALB2f DFutTrl100004th/10 -1½L866.1-1b LFollowed winner;
    7/10ALB1.81818f DMSWWon/10902.4-1b LAway alertly; driving
    6/26ALB1.81818f DFutTrl100002nd/9 by hd8277-1b LDueled; just missed
  10. 10Pyc Dollars CowboyS. Becerra Jr. · R. RamirezBecerra Jr. · RamirezB74 89 88▼▼-14@trip 745-2Fair 4-120%▼▼ Big drop -1474 89 88@trip 74B1

    Card model 20% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #1 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -14 · Best fig at today's trip 74 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 89 88

    Jockey Sergio Jr Becerra 1-for-6 on dirt this meet · Trainer Raul Ramirez 32% career 4-for-23 on dirt this meet (17%)
    Also today · Jockey R6: Pilatus 30-1 · Trainer R3: Bolted 15-1, R6: Pilatus 30-1, R10: Hes Your Daddy 3-1, R11: Jess Send Her 6-1

    New trainer: Marco A Flores had it last time, Raul Ramirez now. Has won 2 of 5 going today's distance.

    PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 56d back)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/25ALB1.81818f DFutTrl80002nd/7 by hd740.7-1b LDueled; just missed;
    8/7ALB2f DTrial4th/10 -1¼L891.7-1b LUnprepared start;
    5/30RP1.59091f DsEasyJetR G2Won/10 by hd882.7-1b LDug in; up at wire

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks
1 2 3
Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair
The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?
The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72
Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕
≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★
Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips
Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
FINISHSTART400 YARDS · DIRT · mainstraight course

LONE STAR PARK · RACE 4

UPCOMING

Trial

Field
10 runners
Purse
$10,000
Post
7:23 PM ET
Pace
Pace Vacuum
Card model top pick
#10 · 20%

Stakes, for 2-year-olds.

Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 400 Yards: 19.2

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #10 Pyc Dollars Cowboy (a tactical type, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 74 · 89 · 88. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #2 Cowboy Favorite at 10-1. Use #6 Curls Favorite Jet in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

  • Market favourite #6 CURLS FAVORITE JET (2-1) — our number has it ranked #3.
  • #6 CURLS FAVORITE JET — our #3 number, about right at the windows (24.1% to their 25.7%).
  • #10 PYC DOLLARS COWBOY — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (21.8% to their 22.0%).
  • #3 STAGGERINGCOWBOY — our #4 number, about right at the windows (17.5% to their 17.1%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

  • The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Eagle On The Prey, #2 Cowboy Favorite, #3 Staggeringcowboy.

Lead
none
Press
none
Stalk
none
Close
none
No style yet
1Eagle On The Prey2Cowboy Favorite3Staggeringcowboy4Norwalk5Kj Casanova Cowboy6Curls Favorite Jet7Cowgirl Fantasy8Apolitical Cowgirl9Delightfully Sage10Pyc Dollars Cowboy

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

1
Eagle On The Prey
0
2
Cowboy Favorite
0
3
Staggeringcowboy
0
4
Norwalk
0
5
Kj Casanova Cowboy
0
6
Curls Favorite Jet
0
7
Cowgirl Fantasy
0
8
Apolitical Cowgirl
0
9
Delightfully Sage
0
10
Pyc Dollars Cowboy
0
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