1Jmg Oak DulceLSA. Alvarez · R. Rodriguez Jr.Alvarez · Rodriguez Jr.C66 86 77▼▼-18↕@trip 8820-1Fair 20-15%
▼▼ Big drop -1866 86 77 ↕@trip 88CLSCard model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -18 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 66–88 · Best fig at today's trip 88 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 66 86 77
LSLongshot read: 20-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 5% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Arturo Alvarez 34% career 3-for-40 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Raul Jr Rodriguez 33% career 1-for-17 on dirt this meet (6%) ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R5: Jmg Special Dulce 30-1, R14: Eagle Dinasty 727 30-1 · Trainer R5: Jmg Special Dulce 30-1Was running in maiden special weight; today's stakes nongraded is an easier level on paper. Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 230 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/10 LS 1.81818f D MSW 8th/9 -3¼L 66 2.5-1 b L Bmpd around st;std'd 9/11 LS 1.36364f D sMdSpWt 2nd/10 -1L 86 2.8-1 b L Just short 7/18 GIL 1.59091f D MSW 2nd/9 77 2.3-1 b L Bumped took lead caugh 2Get AggressiveG. Linares · J. SanchezLinares · SanchezB78 93 73▼▼-9↕5-1Fair 8-110%
▼▼ Big drop -978 93 73 ↕BCard model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -9 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 73–94 · Last 3 figs 78 93 73
Jockey Gilberto Linares 33% career 8-for-48 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Jose Luis Iii Sanchez 34% career 5-for-42 on dirt this meet (12%)Also today · Jockey R1: Rocking Cowboy 6-1, R3: Dracula 20-1, R4: Eagle On The Prey 15-1, R7: Your Flying Dreams 30-1 +4 more · Trainer R2: Jess Sissy Cartel 6-1, R5: Marvelous Marv 3-1, R9: Hesawthebatsignal 5-1, R12: Goldmining 12-1 +1 more◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE60D LAYOFFHas won 2 of 4 going today's distance. Runs for $10,000 today after a $230,000 race last time.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Bumped both sides), and the figure already reflects it.WORKS Routine prep: 0 works in 30d, last 34d agoRECORD Gilberto Linares from post 2 here: 5 wins, 12 top-3 in 23 rides · 15% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/22 RET 1.59091f D rTQSirFuRG2 G2 8th/8 -5¼L 78 3.9-1 b L Bumped both sides 8/7 RET 1.59091f D FutTrl10000 Won/10 93 1.9-1 b L Dueled; driving finish 6/13 HOU 1.59091f D SmHouFutG2 G2 10th/10 -2¼L 73 4.4-1 b L No factor 3Latest CrisisF. Giles · B. BolenGiles · BolenC77 5930-1Fair 50-12%
—77 59CCard model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 77 59
Jockey Francisco Giles 29% career 3-for-48 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Bradley Bolen 27% career 3-for-40 on dirt this meet (8%)Also today · Jockey R5: Heroic Attempt 30-1, R9: Swingin Policy 30-1, R12: Pop A Rockz 20-1 · Trainer R5: Heroic Attempt 30-1, R9: Swingin Policy 30-1, R12: Pop A Rockz 20-1, R14: Warp Speed 20-160D LAYOFFJky 9/50 from post 3Returns from a 112-day break. Finished 9th in a 9-horse maiden special weight race at WYO, beaten 2 lengths.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.WORKS Routine prep: 0 works in 30d, last 36d agoRECORD Francisco Giles from post 3 here: 9 wins, 25 top-3 in 50 rides · 9% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 7/10 WYO 1.36364f D MSW 9th/9 -2L 77 12-1 b LB No threat 5/10 SRP 1.59091f D MSW 7th/10 -4¾L 59 27-1 b L Off step slow;green 4First Dashing CowboyF. Calderon · L. HernandezCalderon · HernandezA94 94 84▲+6@trip 843-1Fair 5-116%
▲ Up +6 · career best94 94 84@trip 84ACard model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +6 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 84 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 94 94 84
Jockey Francisco Calderon 37% career 8-for-41 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Leonel Hernandez 31% career 0-for-6 on dirt this meet ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R1: Fall Classic 8-5, R2: Unblemished V 5-2, R3: Konklusiv 2-1, R4: Staggeringcowboy 7-2 +9 more · Trainer R9: Tha Cash Wagon 30-1, R12: A Tres Of Politics 9-2Leonel Hernandez takes over the training from Joel J Gonzales. Purse drops from $200,000 to $10,000 against its last start.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 24d backRECORD Francisco Calderon from post 4 here: 8 wins, 23 top-3 in 33 rides · 19% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/7 ALB 2f D AllAmerJuv200k 5th/10 -2¼L 94 12-1 b L Pushed out start 8/8 ALB 2f D FutTrl10000 3rd/8 -1½L 94 13-1 b L Even effort; 6/27 ALB 1.81818f D FutTrl10000 2nd/9 by nk 84 8.2-1 b L Outfinished; gamely 5Diva StoneA. Rivera · J. StinebaughRivera · StinebaughB91 91 77▲+7@trip 7710-1Fair 12-17%
▲ Up +7 · career best91 91 77@trip 77BCard model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +7 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 77 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 91 91 77
Jockey Ali Rivera 34% career 9-for-80 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer John A Stinebaugh 36% career 10-for-52 on dirt this meet (19%) ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R1: Cowboys Love Wine 2-1, R2: Tomorrows Dynasty 9-2, R3: Candy In My Arms 6-1, R4: Curls Favorite Jet 2-1 +8 more · Trainer R1: Cowboys Love Wine 2-1, R2: Tomorrows Dynasty 9-2, R3: Candy In My Arms 6-1, R4: Curls Favorite Jet 2-1 +8 more★ FASTEST WORKLast out was 3rd, a neck behind the winner, in a 9-horse maiden special weight race at ALB. Posted the fastest 1.5F work of the morning on Oct 15, in :16.80.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 15 (1.5F in :16.80), 1 work in 30dRECORD Ali Rivera from post 5 here: 7 wins, 24 top-3 in 46 rides · 17% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/6 ALB 1.59091f D MSW 3rd/9 by nk 91 1.8-1 b L Strong finish; up show 8/8 ALB 2f D FutTrl10000 3rd/10 -2L 91 74-1 b L Good try; 7/10 ALB 1.81818f D MSW 8th/10 -3½L 77 11-1 b L Off slow; no menace 6Sweet PursuitJ. Pulido · K. ReedPulido · ReedA82 88 87▼-3≡@trip 887-2Fair 5-116%
▼ Down -382 88 87 ≡@trip 88A2Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -3 · ≡ Steady figures 80–88 · Best fig at today's trip 88 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 82 88 87
Jockey Juan Pulido 44% career ★ 8-for-27 on dirt this meet (30%), #1 of 52 · Trainer Kash Reed 31% career ★ 7-for-28 on dirt this meet (25%), #3 of 67 ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R5: Im Significant 5-1, R11: Hott Off Tha Press 12-1, R14: Revenant Mark 10-1 · Trainer R2: Flight History 12-1, R5: Im Significant 5-1, R6: Panther Pursuit 20-1, R9: King Baja 20-1 +3 moreRuns for $10,000 today after a $50,590 race last time. Winless in 4 starts at this distance.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Bmp/bobbld st), and the figure already reflects it.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 59d agoRECORD Juan Pulido from post 6 here: 4 wins, 8 top-3 in 16 rides · 25% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/10 LS 1.81818f D DshCashJuv51k 6th/10 -3½L 82 3.2-1 b L Bmp/bobbld st 9/19 LS 1.81818f D FutTrl10000 3rd/10 88 2.8-1 b L Bmp;up early;outfnshd 8/8 ALB 2f D FutTrl10000 6th/10 -1¾L 87 9.8-1 b L Best of others; 7A Fortunate CowboyV. Urieta Jr. · M. PizanaUrieta Jr. · PizanaA91 905-2Fair 3-125%
—91 90A1Card model 25% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 91 90
Jockey Victor Manuel Jr Urieta 18-for-99 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Miguel Pizana 24% career 2-for-2 on dirt this meetAlso today · Jockey R3: Jc Canelo 5-2, R7: Dk Bonita Jess 4-1, R9: Cowgirl Lyndi G 30-1, R13: Nena C 9-2 +1 more · Trainer R7: Dk Bonita Jess 4-1, R13: Nena C 9-2180D+ LAYOFFBack after 223 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. The longest gap in the field. Changes barns, from Leonardo Alcala to Miguel Pizana.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 13d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 3/21 RP 1.36364f D OK Fut G2 G2 2nd/8 91 2.3-1 b Brk in; no match 3/7 RP 1.36364f D FutTrl10000 Won/7 90 1.0-1 b Motored clear 8A Noble CowgirlR. Ramirez · S. WoodRamirez · WoodC76 65 61▲+3↕@trip 6130-1Fair 50-12%
▲ Up +376 65 61 ↕@trip 61CCard model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +3 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 61–92 · Best fig at today's trip 61 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 76 65 61
Jockey Ricky Ramirez 33% career 7-for-53 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer S Trey Wood 28% career 4-for-28 on dirt this meet (14%)Also today · Jockey R3: Fearless Cowboy 7-2, R6: Agree N Tell 12-1, R7: Allikat Ttu 30-1, R9: Cowgirl Eats Fire 4-1 +3 more · Trainer R1: Timeto Quit 30-1, R2: Rr Evil Jess 30-1, R3: Fearless Cowboy 7-2, R4: Delightfully Sage 6-1 +11 moreHas moved up each time out, 61 to 65 to 76. Beaten ¾ length for 6th in a 10-horse allowance race at LS.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 100 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/12 LS 1.36364f D Alw n2l 6th/10 -¾L 76 9.0-1 b L Broke out;bmpd 8/8 ALB 2f D FutTrl10000 10th/10 -6¾L 65 19-1 b L Stumbled break; 6/26 ALB 1.81818f D FutTrl10000 6th/9 -3L 61 1.8-1 b L Hopped start 9First Tartanero JessC. Aguilar · V. FierroAguilar · FierroB98 73 92▲▲+14↕@trip 736-1Fair 8-111%
▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best98 73 92 ↕@trip 73B3Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 73–98 · Best fig at today's trip 73 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 98 73 92
Jockey Claudio Ponce Aguilar 30% career 5-for-64 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Victor G Fierro 33% career ★ 5-for-22 on dirt this meet (23%)★ FASTEST WORKBest Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 98, with 94 next best. 3rd of 19 at 1F on Apr 28, in :11.80.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.WORKS SHARP 1.1f in :13.20 on May 6 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30dRECORD Claudio Ponce Aguilar from post 9 here: 1 win, 5 top-3 in 19 rides · 12% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/2 LS 1½f D Alw n1x 2nd/10 -1L 98 5.6-1 b L Bmp st;2nd best 9/19 LS 1.81818f D FutTrl10000 4th/10 -1L 73 1.0-1 b L Bmp st;outkicked 7/25 RET 1.59091f D sTQHAFutRG1 G1 5th/10 -5¼L 92 28-1 b L No menace 10Thys KyssM. Delgado · J. JoinerDelgado · JoinerC86 75 81▲▲+8@trip 8120-1Fair 20-14%
▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best86 75 81@trip 81CCard model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 81 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 86 75 81
Jockey Mario Delgado 32% career 2-for-14 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Justin W Joiner 32% career ★ 5-for-21 on dirt this meet (24%)Also today · Jockey R1: My Special Blood 30-1, R2: The Cowboys A Legend 12-1, R3: Favorite Power Cc 30-1, R11: Differentiator 5-1 +2 more · Trainer R1: My Special Blood 30-1, R2: The Cowboys A Legend 12-1, R3: Favorite Power Cc 30-1, R4: Staggeringcowboy 7-2 +6 moreWorked 1F in :11.80 on May 21, 2nd of 17 at the distance. 3rd last time, 2 lengths back, in a field of 10.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 57d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/1 LS 1.59091f D MSW 3rd/10 -2L 86 6.1-1 b L Brk in;bmp hard;imprvd 8/7 ALB 2f D FutTrl10000 6th/10 -3L 75 17-1 b L No rally; 7/10 ALB 1.81818f D MSW 4th/10 -1½L 81 27-1 b L Bore in; brushed break
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
LONE STAR PARK · RACE 8
UPCOMINGTrial
Stakes, for 2-year-olds.
Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.
● Breed: Quarter Horse
● Track record at 400 Yards: 19.2
The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.
Our number tops on #7 A Fortunate Cowboy (a tactical type, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 91 · 90. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #6 Sweet Pursuit at 7-2. Use #9 First Tartanero Jess in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #7 A FORTUNATE COWBOY (5-2) — our number agrees.
- #7 A FORTUNATE COWBOY — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (22.4% to their 21.7%).
- #4 FIRST DASHING COWBOY — our #4 number, about right at the windows (19.2% to their 19.0%).
- #6 SWEET PURSUIT — our #2 number, about right at the windows (17.1% to their 16.9%).
Model vs the morning line
- The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.
and works against #1 Jmg Oak Dulce, #2 Get Aggressive, #3 Latest Crisis.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
EXACTA / $.50 TRIFECTA / $.10 SUPERFECTA / DAILY DOUBLE
$.50 PICK 3 (RACES 8-9-10)
BET OPTIONS
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