R8 Lone Star Park · Trial

9:07 PM ET · 400 Yards Dirt · $10,000 · 10 runners9:07 PM · 1.8f Dirt · 10 runners

Upcoming $10K · Trial

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles
  1. 1Jmg Oak DulceLSA. Alvarez · R. Rodriguez Jr.Alvarez · Rodriguez Jr.C66 86 77▼▼-18↕@trip 8820-1Fair 20-15%▼▼ Big drop -1866 86 77 ↕@trip 88CLS

    Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -18 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 66–88 · Best fig at today's trip 88 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 66 86 77

    LS

    Longshot read: 20-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 5% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.

    Jockey Arturo Alvarez 34% career 3-for-40 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Raul Jr Rodriguez 33% career 1-for-17 on dirt this meet (6%) ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R5: Jmg Special Dulce 30-1, R14: Eagle Dinasty 727 30-1 · Trainer R5: Jmg Special Dulce 30-1

    Was running in maiden special weight; today's stakes nongraded is an easier level on paper. Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field.

    PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 230 days ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/10LS1.81818f DMSW8th/9 -3¼L662.5-1b LBmpd around st;std'd
    9/11LS1.36364f DsMdSpWt2nd/10 -1L862.8-1b LJust short
    7/18GIL1.59091f DMSW2nd/9772.3-1b LBumped took lead caugh
  2. 2Get AggressiveG. Linares · J. SanchezLinares · SanchezB78 93 73▼▼-9↕5-1Fair 8-110%▼▼ Big drop -978 93 73 ↕B

    Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -9 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 73–94 · Last 3 figs 78 93 73

    Jockey Gilberto Linares 33% career 8-for-48 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Jose Luis Iii Sanchez 34% career 5-for-42 on dirt this meet (12%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: Rocking Cowboy 6-1, R3: Dracula 20-1, R4: Eagle On The Prey 15-1, R7: Your Flying Dreams 30-1 +4 more · Trainer R2: Jess Sissy Cartel 6-1, R5: Marvelous Marv 3-1, R9: Hesawthebatsignal 5-1, R12: Goldmining 12-1 +1 more
    ◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE60D LAYOFF

    Has won 2 of 4 going today's distance. Runs for $10,000 today after a $230,000 race last time.

    PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Bumped both sides), and the figure already reflects it.
    WORKS Routine prep: 0 works in 30d, last 34d ago
    RECORD Gilberto Linares from post 2 here: 5 wins, 12 top-3 in 23 rides · 15% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    8/22RET1.59091f DrTQSirFuRG2 G28th/8 -5¼L783.9-1b LBumped both sides
    8/7RET1.59091f DFutTrl10000Won/10931.9-1b LDueled; driving finish
    6/13HOU1.59091f DSmHouFutG2 G210th/10 -2¼L734.4-1b LNo factor
  3. 3Latest CrisisF. Giles · B. BolenGiles · BolenC77 5930-1Fair 50-12%—77 59C

    Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 77 59

    Jockey Francisco Giles 29% career 3-for-48 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Bradley Bolen 27% career 3-for-40 on dirt this meet (8%)
    Also today · Jockey R5: Heroic Attempt 30-1, R9: Swingin Policy 30-1, R12: Pop A Rockz 20-1 · Trainer R5: Heroic Attempt 30-1, R9: Swingin Policy 30-1, R12: Pop A Rockz 20-1, R14: Warp Speed 20-1
    60D LAYOFFJky 9/50 from post 3

    Returns from a 112-day break. Finished 9th in a 9-horse maiden special weight race at WYO, beaten 2 lengths.

    PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
    WORKS Routine prep: 0 works in 30d, last 36d ago
    RECORD Francisco Giles from post 3 here: 9 wins, 25 top-3 in 50 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    7/10WYO1.36364f DMSW9th/9 -2L7712-1b LBNo threat
    5/10SRP1.59091f DMSW7th/10 -4¾L5927-1b LOff step slow;green
  4. 4First Dashing CowboyF. Calderon · L. HernandezCalderon · HernandezA94 94 84▲+6@trip 843-1Fair 5-116%▲ Up +6 · career best94 94 84@trip 84A

    Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +6 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 84 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 94 94 84

    Jockey Francisco Calderon 37% career 8-for-41 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Leonel Hernandez 31% career 0-for-6 on dirt this meet ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R1: Fall Classic 8-5, R2: Unblemished V 5-2, R3: Konklusiv 2-1, R4: Staggeringcowboy 7-2 +9 more · Trainer R9: Tha Cash Wagon 30-1, R12: A Tres Of Politics 9-2

    Leonel Hernandez takes over the training from Joel J Gonzales. Purse drops from $200,000 to $10,000 against its last start.

    PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 24d back
    RECORD Francisco Calderon from post 4 here: 8 wins, 23 top-3 in 33 rides · 19% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/7ALB2f DAllAmerJuv200k5th/10 -2¼L9412-1b LPushed out start
    8/8ALB2f DFutTrl100003rd/8 -1½L9413-1b LEven effort;
    6/27ALB1.81818f DFutTrl100002nd/9 by nk848.2-1b LOutfinished; gamely
  5. 5Diva StoneA. Rivera · J. StinebaughRivera · StinebaughB91 91 77▲+7@trip 7710-1Fair 12-17%▲ Up +7 · career best91 91 77@trip 77B

    Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +7 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 77 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 91 91 77

    Jockey Ali Rivera 34% career 9-for-80 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer John A Stinebaugh 36% career 10-for-52 on dirt this meet (19%) ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R1: Cowboys Love Wine 2-1, R2: Tomorrows Dynasty 9-2, R3: Candy In My Arms 6-1, R4: Curls Favorite Jet 2-1 +8 more · Trainer R1: Cowboys Love Wine 2-1, R2: Tomorrows Dynasty 9-2, R3: Candy In My Arms 6-1, R4: Curls Favorite Jet 2-1 +8 more
    ★ FASTEST WORK

    Last out was 3rd, a neck behind the winner, in a 9-horse maiden special weight race at ALB. Posted the fastest 1.5F work of the morning on Oct 15, in :16.80.

    PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
    WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 15 (1.5F in :16.80), 1 work in 30d
    RECORD Ali Rivera from post 5 here: 7 wins, 24 top-3 in 46 rides · 17% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/6ALB1.59091f DMSW3rd/9 by nk911.8-1b LStrong finish; up show
    8/8ALB2f DFutTrl100003rd/10 -2L9174-1b LGood try;
    7/10ALB1.81818f DMSW8th/10 -3½L7711-1b LOff slow; no menace
  6. 6Sweet PursuitJ. Pulido · K. ReedPulido · ReedA82 88 87▼-3≡@trip 887-2Fair 5-116%▼ Down -382 88 87 ≡@trip 88A2

    Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -3 · ≡ Steady figures 80–88 · Best fig at today's trip 88 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 82 88 87

    Jockey Juan Pulido 44% career ★ 8-for-27 on dirt this meet (30%), #1 of 52 · Trainer Kash Reed 31% career ★ 7-for-28 on dirt this meet (25%), #3 of 67 ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R5: Im Significant 5-1, R11: Hott Off Tha Press 12-1, R14: Revenant Mark 10-1 · Trainer R2: Flight History 12-1, R5: Im Significant 5-1, R6: Panther Pursuit 20-1, R9: King Baja 20-1 +3 more

    Runs for $10,000 today after a $50,590 race last time. Winless in 4 starts at this distance.

    PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Bmp/bobbld st), and the figure already reflects it.
    WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 59d ago
    RECORD Juan Pulido from post 6 here: 4 wins, 8 top-3 in 16 rides · 25% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/10LS1.81818f DDshCashJuv51k6th/10 -3½L823.2-1b LBmp/bobbld st
    9/19LS1.81818f DFutTrl100003rd/10882.8-1b LBmp;up early;outfnshd
    8/8ALB2f DFutTrl100006th/10 -1¾L879.8-1b LBest of others;
  7. 7A Fortunate CowboyV. Urieta Jr. · M. PizanaUrieta Jr. · PizanaA91 905-2Fair 3-125%—91 90A1

    Card model 25% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 91 90

    Jockey Victor Manuel Jr Urieta 18-for-99 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Miguel Pizana 24% career 2-for-2 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R3: Jc Canelo 5-2, R7: Dk Bonita Jess 4-1, R9: Cowgirl Lyndi G 30-1, R13: Nena C 9-2 +1 more · Trainer R7: Dk Bonita Jess 4-1, R13: Nena C 9-2
    180D+ LAYOFF

    Back after 223 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. The longest gap in the field. Changes barns, from Leonardo Alcala to Miguel Pizana.

    PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 13d ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    3/21RP1.36364f DOK Fut G2 G22nd/8912.3-1bBrk in; no match
    3/7RP1.36364f DFutTrl10000Won/7901.0-1bMotored clear
  8. 8A Noble CowgirlR. Ramirez · S. WoodRamirez · WoodC76 65 61▲+3↕@trip 6130-1Fair 50-12%▲ Up +376 65 61 ↕@trip 61C

    Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +3 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 61–92 · Best fig at today's trip 61 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 76 65 61

    Jockey Ricky Ramirez 33% career 7-for-53 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer S Trey Wood 28% career 4-for-28 on dirt this meet (14%)
    Also today · Jockey R3: Fearless Cowboy 7-2, R6: Agree N Tell 12-1, R7: Allikat Ttu 30-1, R9: Cowgirl Eats Fire 4-1 +3 more · Trainer R1: Timeto Quit 30-1, R2: Rr Evil Jess 30-1, R3: Fearless Cowboy 7-2, R4: Delightfully Sage 6-1 +11 more

    Has moved up each time out, 61 to 65 to 76. Beaten ¾ length for 6th in a 10-horse allowance race at LS.

    PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 100 days ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/12LS1.36364f DAlw n2l6th/10 -¾L769.0-1b LBroke out;bmpd
    8/8ALB2f DFutTrl1000010th/10 -6¾L6519-1b LStumbled break;
    6/26ALB1.81818f DFutTrl100006th/9 -3L611.8-1b LHopped start
  9. 9First Tartanero JessC. Aguilar · V. FierroAguilar · FierroB98 73 92▲▲+14↕@trip 736-1Fair 8-111%▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best98 73 92 ↕@trip 73B3

    Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 73–98 · Best fig at today's trip 73 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 98 73 92

    Jockey Claudio Ponce Aguilar 30% career 5-for-64 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Victor G Fierro 33% career ★ 5-for-22 on dirt this meet (23%)
    Also today · Jockey R4: Cowgirl Fantasy 30-1
    ★ FASTEST WORK

    Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 98, with 94 next best. 3rd of 19 at 1F on Apr 28, in :11.80.

    PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    WORKS SHARP 1.1f in :13.20 on May 6 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d
    RECORD Claudio Ponce Aguilar from post 9 here: 1 win, 5 top-3 in 19 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/2LS1½f DAlw n1x2nd/10 -1L985.6-1b LBmp st;2nd best
    9/19LS1.81818f DFutTrl100004th/10 -1L731.0-1b LBmp st;outkicked
    7/25RET1.59091f DsTQHAFutRG1 G15th/10 -5¼L9228-1b LNo menace
  10. 10Thys KyssM. Delgado · J. JoinerDelgado · JoinerC86 75 81▲▲+8@trip 8120-1Fair 20-14%▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best86 75 81@trip 81C

    Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 81 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 86 75 81

    Jockey Mario Delgado 32% career 2-for-14 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Justin W Joiner 32% career ★ 5-for-21 on dirt this meet (24%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: My Special Blood 30-1, R2: The Cowboys A Legend 12-1, R3: Favorite Power Cc 30-1, R11: Differentiator 5-1 +2 more · Trainer R1: My Special Blood 30-1, R2: The Cowboys A Legend 12-1, R3: Favorite Power Cc 30-1, R4: Staggeringcowboy 7-2 +6 more

    Worked 1F in :11.80 on May 21, 2nd of 17 at the distance. 3rd last time, 2 lengths back, in a field of 10.

    PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 57d back)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/1LS1.59091f DMSW3rd/10 -2L866.1-1b LBrk in;bmp hard;imprvd
    8/7ALB2f DFutTrl100006th/10 -3L7517-1b LNo rally;
    7/10ALB1.81818f DMSW4th/10 -1½L8127-1b LBore in; brushed break

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks
1 2 3
Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair
The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?
The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72
Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕
≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★
Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips
Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
FINISHSTART400 YARDS · DIRT · mainstraight course

LONE STAR PARK · RACE 8

UPCOMING

Trial

Field
10 runners
Purse
$10,000
Post
9:07 PM ET
Pace
Pace Vacuum
Card model top pick
#7 · 25%

Stakes, for 2-year-olds.

Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 400 Yards: 19.2

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #7 A Fortunate Cowboy (a tactical type, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 91 · 90. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #6 Sweet Pursuit at 7-2. Use #9 First Tartanero Jess in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

  • Market favourite #7 A FORTUNATE COWBOY (5-2) — our number agrees.
  • #7 A FORTUNATE COWBOY — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (22.4% to their 21.7%).
  • #4 FIRST DASHING COWBOY — our #4 number, about right at the windows (19.2% to their 19.0%).
  • #6 SWEET PURSUIT — our #2 number, about right at the windows (17.1% to their 16.9%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

  • The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Jmg Oak Dulce, #2 Get Aggressive, #3 Latest Crisis.

Lead
none
Press
none
Stalk
none
Close
none
No style yet
1Jmg Oak Dulce2Get Aggressive3Latest Crisis4First Dashing Cowboy5Diva Stone6Sweet Pursuit7A Fortunate Cowboy8A Noble Cowgirl9First Tartanero Jess10Thys Kyss

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

3
Latest Crisis
17
1
Jmg Oak Dulce
0
2
Get Aggressive
0
4
First Dashing Cowboy
0
5
Diva Stone
0
6
Sweet Pursuit
0
7
A Fortunate Cowboy
0
8
A Noble Cowgirl
0
9
First Tartanero Jess
0
10
Thys Kyss
0
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