R5 Lone Star Park · Trial

7:49 PM ET · 400 Yards Dirt · $10,000 · 9 runners7:49 PM · 1.8f Dirt · 9 runners

Upcoming $10K · Trial

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Johnson KreekO. Andrade Jr. · J. RamosAndrade Jr. · RamosC80 69@trip 6920-1Fair 30-14%—80 69@trip 69C
Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Best fig at today's trip 69 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 69
Jockey Oscar Jr Andrade 14% career · Trainer Jesse E Ramos 26% career
Also today · Jockey R6: Dangerous Leigh 15-1
60D LAYOFF
Changes barns, from Tony E Sedillo to Jesse E Ramos. Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Lugged in), and the figure already reflects it.
WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 24d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
8/8 ALB 2f D FutTrl10000 6th/9 -3½L 80 20-1 b L Lugged in;
6/27 ALB 1.81818f D FutTrl10000 8th/9 -1½L 69 34-1 b L Crowded; steadied 1/8
2Heroic AttemptF. Giles · B. BolenGiles · BolenC67 57@trip 5730-1Fair 50-12%—67 57@trip 57C
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Best fig at today's trip 57 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 67 57
Jockey Francisco Giles 29% career 3-for-48 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Bradley Bolen 27% career 3-for-40 on dirt this meet (8%)
Also today · Jockey R8: Latest Crisis 30-1, R9: Swingin Policy 30-1, R12: Pop A Rockz 20-1 · Trainer R8: Latest Crisis 30-1, R9: Swingin Policy 30-1, R12: Pop A Rockz 20-1, R14: Warp Speed 20-1
Drops from maiden special weight to stakes nongraded. Beaten 6 lengths for 9th in a 10-horse maiden special weight race at LS.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 37d ago
RECORD Francisco Giles from post 2 here: 3 wins, 12 top-3 in 41 rides · 9% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/16 LS 1.59091f D MSW 9th/10 -6L 67 42-1 b L No rally
7/31 RET 1.81818f D MSW 8th/8 -6¼L 57 27-1 b L No factor

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/8	ALB	2f D	FutTrl10000	6th/9 -3½L	80	20-1	b L	Lugged in;
6/27	ALB	1.81818f D	FutTrl10000	8th/9 -1½L	69	34-1	b L	Crowded; steadied 1/8

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/16	LS	1.59091f D	MSW	9th/10 -6L	67	42-1	b L	No rally
7/31	RET	1.81818f D	MSW	8th/8 -6¼L	57	27-1	b L	No factor

3Im SignificantJ. Pulido · K. ReedPulido · ReedA92 69 73▲▲+21↕5-1Fair 6-113%▲▲ Big jump +21 · career best92 69 73 ↕A

Card model 13% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +21 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 69–92 · Last 3 figs 92 69 73

Jockey Juan Pulido 44% career ★ 8-for-27 on dirt this meet (30%), #1 of 52 · Trainer Kash Reed 31% career ★ 7-for-28 on dirt this meet (25%), #3 of 67 ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R8: Sweet Pursuit 7-2, R11: Hott Off Tha Press 12-1, R14: Revenant Mark 10-1 · Trainer R2: Flight History 12-1, R6: Panther Pursuit 20-1, R8: Sweet Pursuit 7-2, R9: King Baja 20-1 +3 more

WON LAST

Won last out in a 10-horse maiden claiming $20,000 race at LS. Jockey switch: Bryan Candanosa last out, Juan Pulido today.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 28d back

RECORD Juan Pulido from post 3 here: 3 wins, 7 top-3 in 16 rides · 25% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/15	LS	1.36364f D	MCL 20k	Won/10	92	4.7-1	b L	Surged;held
6/27	IND	1.59091f D	FutTrl14000	6th/8 -1¾L	69	3.3-1	b L	Losing ground
4/2	RP	1½f D	sFutTrl15000	5th/7 -1¾L	73	1.5-1	b L	Chsd dueling trio

4Mae DynastyA. Rivera · J. StinebaughRivera · StinebaughB81 78 82▲+6@trip 8120-1Fair 12-18%▲ Up +681 78 82@trip 81B3

Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +6 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 78 82

Jockey Ali Rivera 34% career 9-for-80 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer John A Stinebaugh 36% career 10-for-52 on dirt this meet (19%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Cowboys Love Wine 2-1, R2: Tomorrows Dynasty 9-2, R3: Candy In My Arms 6-1, R4: Curls Favorite Jet 2-1 +8 more · Trainer R1: Cowboys Love Wine 2-1, R2: Tomorrows Dynasty 9-2, R3: Candy In My Arms 6-1, R4: Curls Favorite Jet 2-1 +8 more

Jky 13/47 from post 4

Winless in 4 starts at this distance. Class relief: maiden special weight last time, stakes nongraded today.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 49d ago

RECORD Ali Rivera from post 4 here: 13 wins, 31 top-3 in 47 rides · 17% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	LS	1.81818f D	MSW	3rd/10 -2½L	81	11-1	b L	Brshd st;late rally
8/7	ALB	2f D	FutTrl10000	8th/10 -4¼L	78	86-1	b L	No threat;
5/23	ALB	1.59091f D	FutTrl10000	6th/8 -3¾L	82	13-1	b L	Came in start; crowded

5Expensive Toro★R. Castro · H. Deyta-MelendezCastro · Deyta-MelendezA79 93 97▼▼-13@trip 974-5Fair 8-538%▼▼ Big drop -1379 93 97@trip 97A★ Best at the trip 971

Card model 38% · Fair odds 8-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -13 · Best fig at today's trip 97 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 79 93 97

★ Best at the trip 97

Jockey Ruben Castro 24% career 1-for-11 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Heber Deyta-Melendez 26% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: La Golden Eagle 20-1

Tops the field on speed figures, a 97 against 92 for the next best. Trending the wrong way on speed, 97 to 93 to 79.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 11d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/19	LS	1.81818f D	FutTrl10000	2nd/10 by nk	79	1.2-1	b	Bmp;late kick;missd
8/8	ALB	2f D	FutTrl10000	2nd/10 -1½L	93	0.9-1	b L	No match late;
7/12	ALB	1.81818f D	RainbJuv100k	3rd/8 -½L	97	3.7-1	b L	No mishap; solid bid

6Sashay My Life AwayE. Navarrete · S. WoodNavarrete · WoodB90 84 58▲▲+18↕@trip 5812-1Fair 15-16%▲▲ Big jump +18 · career best90 84 58 ↕@trip 58B

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +18 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 58–90 · Best fig at today's trip 58 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 90 84 58

Jockey Eugenio Alberto Navarrete 1-for-18 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer S Trey Wood 28% career 4-for-28 on dirt this meet (14%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Timeto Quit 30-1, R2: Rr Evil Jess 30-1, R4: Delightfully Sage 6-1, R11: Rhynestone Cowboy 20-1 +1 more · Trainer R1: Timeto Quit 30-1, R2: Rr Evil Jess 30-1, R3: Fearless Cowboy 7-2, R4: Delightfully Sage 6-1 +11 more

★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST

Figures are climbing: 58, 84, 90 over its last three. Comes in off a victory in a 9-horse maiden special weight race at LS.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 140d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/17	LS	1½f D	MSW	Won/9 by hd	90	4.7-1	b L	Bmpd in st;up late
8/7	ALB	2f D	FutTrl10000	6th/10 -4L	84	144-1	b L	Hopped at start;
6/26	ALB	1.81818f D	FutTrl10000	8th/8 -3¼L	58	12-1	b L	Stumbled; off slowly

7Jmg Special DulceLSA. Alvarez · R. Rodriguez Jr.Alvarez · Rodriguez Jr.C78 80 68▲+5@trip 8030-1Fair 20-15%▲ Up +578 80 68@trip 80CLS
Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +5 · Best fig at today's trip 80 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 78 80 68
LS
Longshot read: 30-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 5% against a line of 3%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Arturo Alvarez 34% career 3-for-40 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Raul Jr Rodriguez 33% career 1-for-17 on dirt this meet (6%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R8: Jmg Oak Dulce 20-1, R14: Eagle Dinasty 727 30-1 · Trainer R8: Jmg Oak Dulce 20-1
Arturo Alvarez takes over from Victor Manuel Jr Urieta in the saddle. Was running in maiden special weight; today's stakes nongraded is an easier level on paper.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 45d back)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/1 LS 1.59091f D MSW 6th/9 -2½L 78 28-1 b Brk out;lackd rally
7/23 RET 1.81818f D MSW 5th/10 -¾L 80 23-1 b Dueled; faltered
6/26 RET 1.81818f D MSW 4th/9 -1¾L 68 11-1 b Bid; no menace

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/1	LS	1.59091f D	MSW	6th/9 -2½L	78	28-1	b	Brk out;lackd rally
7/23	RET	1.81818f D	MSW	5th/10 -¾L	80	23-1	b	Dueled; faltered
6/26	RET	1.81818f D	MSW	4th/9 -1¾L	68	11-1	b	Bid; no menace

8Gunsmoke 123B. Candanosa · J. JoinerCandanosa · JoinerB85 74 73▲▲+13@trip 7415-1Fair 20-15%▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best85 74 73@trip 74B

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 74 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 85 74 73

Jockey Bryan Candanosa 36% career 3-for-18 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Justin W Joiner 32% career ★ 5-for-21 on dirt this meet (24%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Shiny Favorite 20-1, R2: Flight History 12-1, R7: Coronainthefastlanes 20-1, R12: Ab Inferno 3-1 +3 more · Trainer R1: My Special Blood 30-1, R2: The Cowboys A Legend 12-1, R3: Favorite Power Cc 30-1, R4: Staggeringcowboy 7-2 +6 more

Posted the fastest 1.5F work of the morning on Apr 4, in :17.40. Has moved up each time out, 73 to 74 to 85.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS SHARP 1.5f in :17.40 on Apr 4 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d

RECORD Bryan Candanosa from post 8 here: 4 wins, 10 top-3 in 23 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/8	LS	1.59091f D	MSW	3rd/10 -1½L	85	8.8-1	b L	Missed 2nd
8/13	RET	1.81818f D	MSW	2nd/9 by hd	74	1.8-1	b L	Dueled; out finished
7/18	RET	1.81818f D	MSW	5th/10 -1L	73	9.3-1	b L	In tight; taken up

9Marvelous MarvF. Calderon · J. SanchezCalderon · SanchezA85 88 88►@trip 883-1Fair 4-120%► Steady85 88 88@trip 88A2

Card model 20% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 88 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 85 88 88

Jockey Francisco Calderon 37% career 8-for-41 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Jose Luis Iii Sanchez 34% career 5-for-42 on dirt this meet (12%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Fall Classic 8-5, R2: Unblemished V 5-2, R3: Konklusiv 2-1, R4: Staggeringcowboy 7-2 +9 more · Trainer R2: Jess Sissy Cartel 6-1, R8: Get Aggressive 5-1, R9: Hesawthebatsignal 5-1, R12: Goldmining 12-1 +1 more

◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE60D LAYOFF

A 69-day gap since its last race. Purse drops from $230,000 to $10,000 against its last start.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Broke out; bumped), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 30d back

RECORD Francisco Calderon from post 9 here: 4 wins, 7 top-3 in 27 rides · 19% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/22	RET	1.59091f D	rTQSirFuRG2 G2	6th/8 -3¾L	85	20-1	b L	Broke out; bumped
8/7	RET	1.59091f D	FutTrl10000	2nd/10 -1¾L	88	4.3-1	b L	Finished well
7/17	RET	1.81818f D	Alw n2l	4th/8 by nk	88	3.7-1	b L	Dueled; weakened

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

LONE STAR PARK · RACE 5

UPCOMING

Trial

Field

9 runners

Purse

$10,000

Post

7:49 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#5 · 38%

Stakes, for 2-year-olds.

Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 400 Yards: 19.2

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #5 Expensive Toro (a tactical type, M/L 4-5). Recent figures: 79 · 93 · 97. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #9 Marvelous Marv at 3-1. Use #4 Mae Dynasty in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #5 EXPENSIVE TORO (4-5) — our number agrees.
#5 EXPENSIVE TORO — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (39.3% to their 43.7%).
#9 MARVELOUS MARV — our #2 number, about right at the windows (21.5% to their 19.7%).
#3 IM SIGNIFICANT — our #4 number, about right at the windows (13.6% to their 13.1%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

Longshot the model rates above its line: #4 MAE DYNASTY (20-1) — our fair 4.9% is above the morning line's 3.7%; supported by: top barn (36%) + jockey (34%) at 20-1 (a hot trainer-jockey pairing; on our own re-test it did not beat its odds)

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Johnson Kreek, #2 Heroic Attempt, #3 Im Significant.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Johnson Kreek2Heroic Attempt3Im Significant4Mae Dynasty5Expensive Toro6Sashay My Life Away7Jmg Special Dulce8Gunsmoke 1239Marvelous Marv

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Johnson Kreek

Heroic Attempt

Im Significant

Mae Dynasty

Expensive Toro

Sashay My Life Away

Jmg Special Dulce

Gunsmoke 123

Marvelous Marv

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Bet types

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