R14 Lone Star Park · Trial

11:43 AM ET · 400 Yards Dirt · $10,000 · 9 runners11:43 AM · 1.8f Dirt · 9 runners

Upcoming $10K · Trial

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Jt Midlife Crisis★R. Cruz · J. Hernandez-MartinezCruz · Hernandez-MartinezA99 97 104►≡@trip 991-1Fair 7-541%► Steady99 97 104 ≡@trip 99A★ Best at the trip 991

Card model 41% · Fair odds 7-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 97–104 · Best fig at today's trip 99 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 99 97 104

★ Best at the trip 99

Jockey Roman Cruz 33% career 2-for-6 on dirt this meet · Trainer Jose Hernandez-Martinez

Also today · Jockey R6: Bv So Long 15-1 · Trainer R6: Bv So Long 15-1

WON LAST

Comes in off a victory in a 9-horse race at LS. Runs for $10,000 today after a $455,310 race last time.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Bobbled; held clear), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 67d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	LS	1.81818f D	DshCshFuG2 G2	Won/9	99	2.0-1	b L	Bobbled;held clear
9/19	LS	1.81818f D	FutTrl10000	Won/10	97	0.6-1	b L	Drew clear late
7/18	FMT	1.59091f D	SpeedhFuG3 G3	Won/9 by ½	104	0.5-1	b L	Tight early;going away

2Running Cowgirl 123L. Vivanco · S. WoodVivanco · WoodB75 79@trip 7520-1Fair 30-14%—75 79@trip 75B
Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip 75 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 75 79
Jockey Luis L Vivanco 36% career 10-for-70 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer S Trey Wood 28% career 4-for-28 on dirt this meet (14%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Abouta Get Western 5-1, R2: Mondays Best 20-1, R7: Coronas First Cowboy 2-1, R9: The Real Mvp Z 15-1 +2 more · Trainer R1: Timeto Quit 30-1, R2: Rr Evil Jess 30-1, R3: Fearless Cowboy 7-2, R4: Delightfully Sage 6-1 +11 more
★ FASTEST WORK
Luis L Vivanco takes over from Eugenio Alberto Navarrete in the saddle. Posted the fastest 1F work of the morning on Oct 10, in :11.00.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 10 (1F in :11.00), 1 work in 30d
RECORD Luis L Vivanco from post 2 here: 6 wins, 14 top-3 in 40 rides · 12% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/19 LS 1.81818f D FutTrl10000 7th/10 -3¼L 75 33-1 b L No rally
8/13 ALB 1.59091f D MSW 4th/9 -½L 79 2.6-1 b L Crowded;strong finish

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/19	LS	1.81818f D	FutTrl10000	7th/10 -3¼L	75	33-1	b L	No rally
8/13	ALB	1.59091f D	MSW	4th/9 -½L	79	2.6-1	b L	Crowded;strong finish

3Ruse Man CrystalB. Candanosa · J. GarciaCandanosa · GarciaA106 95 87▲▲+17↕6-5Fair 3-126%▲▲ Big jump +17 · career best106 95 87 ↕A

Card model 26% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +17 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 85–106 · Last 3 figs 106 95 87

Jockey Bryan Candanosa 36% career 3-for-18 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Jose A Garcia 32% career 2-for-32 on dirt this meet (6%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Shiny Favorite 20-1, R2: Flight History 12-1, R5: Gunsmoke 123 15-1, R7: Coronainthefastlanes 20-1 +3 more

60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST

Tops the field on speed figures, a 106 against 104 for the next best. Purse drops from $230,000 to $10,000 against its last start.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

SHARP LAST OUT Last time the chart read: Drew away; much best.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 1F on Oct 20; 1 work in 30d

RECORD Bryan Candanosa from post 3 here: 6 wins, 22 top-3 in 41 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/22	RET	1.59091f D	rTQSirFuRG2 G2	Won/8	106	0.9-1	b	Drew away; much best
8/7	RET	1.59091f D	FutTrl10000	Won/9	95	1.8-1	b	Drew away; much best
3/21	RP	1.36364f D	OK Fut G2 G2	3rd/8 -½L	87	11-1	b	Brk in; bump foe

4Warp SpeedC. Guillen · B. BolenGuillen · BolenB87 83 70▲▲+9@trip 8220-1Fair 30-14%▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best87 83 70@trip 82B

Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 82 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 87 83 70

Jockey Chacon Carlos Ant Guillen 14% career 1-for-6 on dirt this meet · Trainer Bradley Bolen 27% career 3-for-40 on dirt this meet (8%)

Also today · Trainer R5: Heroic Attempt 30-1, R8: Latest Crisis 30-1, R9: Swingin Policy 30-1, R12: Pop A Rockz 20-1

Has moved up each time out, 70 to 83 to 87. 0 for 4 at today's distance.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 171d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/1	LS	1.59091f D	MSW	4th/9 -1L	87	5.7-1	b L	Evenly paced
8/7	RET	1.59091f D	FutTrl10000	6th/10 -1¼L	83	72-1	b L	Bobbled; no menace
6/26	RET	1.81818f D	MSW	2nd/9 by hd	70	5.8-1	b L	Dueled; lost head bob

5Talego StoneG. Pina · W. GarciaPina · GarciaC86 76 85▲+6@trip 7620-1Fair 12-17%▲ Up +6 · career best86 76 85@trip 76C2

Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #2 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +6 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 76 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 86 76 85

Jockey Garcia Rosendo E Pina 32% career 3-for-51 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Wendy Alejandra Garcia 32% career 1-for-25 on dirt this meet (4%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Gjr Eaglet 30-1, R6: Sugars Flying 20-1, R9: Raptor Stone 7-2, R13: Cheyenne Stone 30-1 · Trainer R6: Sugars Flying 20-1, R9: Raptor Stone 7-2, R13: Cheyenne Stone 30-1

Last out was 2nd, 1 length behind the winner, in a 10-horse maiden special weight race at LS. Was running in maiden special weight; today's stakes nongraded is an easier level on paper.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 57 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/8	LS	1.59091f D	MSW	2nd/10 -1L	86	2.6-1	b L	Lil stmble;drift late
9/19	LS	1.81818f D	FutTrl10000	2nd/10 -½L	76	28-1	b L	Bmp st;needed more
7/31	RET	1.36364f D	MSW	2nd/8	85	2.1-1	b L	Dueled; out finished

6ThistrainsrelentlessV. Urieta Jr. · H. BaezaUrieta Jr. · BaezaC6730-1Fair 30-13%—67C
Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 67
Jockey Victor Manuel Jr Urieta 18-for-99 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Harvey Baeza 14% career 2-for-17 on dirt this meet (12%)
Also today · Jockey R3: Jc Canelo 5-2, R7: Dk Bonita Jess 4-1, R8: A Fortunate Cowboy 5-2, R9: Cowgirl Lyndi G 30-1 +1 more · Trainer R9: Cowgirl Lyndi G 30-1, R12: Sleepy Chilitos 6-5
Was running in maiden special weight; today's stakes nongraded is an easier level on paper. Finished 7th in a 10-horse maiden special weight race at LS, beaten 5½ lengths.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 27d back)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/16 LS 1.59091f D MSW 7th/10 -5½L 67 20-1 b L Bmp st;no threat
7Eagle Dinasty 727LSA. Alvarez · J. SanchezAlvarez · Sanchez?30-1Fair 30-13%—Debut?LS
Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #7 · Tier ?
LS
Longshot read: 30-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 3% against a line of 2%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Arturo Alvarez 34% career 3-for-40 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Jose Luis Iii Sanchez 34% career 5-for-42 on dirt this meet (12%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R5: Jmg Special Dulce 30-1, R8: Jmg Oak Dulce 20-1 · Trainer R2: Jess Sissy Cartel 6-1, R5: Marvelous Marv 3-1, R8: Get Aggressive 5-1, R9: Hesawthebatsignal 5-1 +1 more
Makes her first start with no form to go on, only the One Famous Eagle and Queen Dinasty breeding. It has been schooling from the gate (latest Oct 17).
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 13d ago
Last three races
First start. By One Famous Eagle out of Queen Dinasty (Fdd Dynasty)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/17 LS 1f :11.80 breezing 5/24 from gate
9/19 LS 1f :12.20 breezing 13/27
2/10 RET 1f :13.00 breezing 12/19 from gate
8Revenant MarkJ. Pulido · K. ReedPulido · ReedA9410-1Fair 12-18%—94A3
Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 94
Jockey Juan Pulido 44% career ★ 8-for-27 on dirt this meet (30%), #1 of 52 · Trainer Kash Reed 31% career ★ 7-for-28 on dirt this meet (25%), #3 of 67 ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R5: Im Significant 5-1, R8: Sweet Pursuit 7-2, R11: Hott Off Tha Press 12-1 · Trainer R2: Flight History 12-1, R5: Im Significant 5-1, R6: Panther Pursuit 20-1, R8: Sweet Pursuit 7-2 +3 more
★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST
Winner of a 9-horse maiden special weight race at LS last time. The Aug 6 work, 1F in :12.20, was the best time at that distance that morning.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Aug 6 (1F in :12.20), 0 works in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/1 LS 1.59091f D MSW Won/9 94 3.3-1 b L Just held

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/16	LS	1.59091f D	MSW	7th/10 -5½L	67	20-1	b L	Bmp st;no threat

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/17	LS	1f	:11.80	breezing	5/24	from gate
9/19	LS	1f	:12.20	breezing	13/27
2/10	RET	1f	:13.00	breezing	12/19	from gate

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/1	LS	1.59091f D	MSW	Won/9	94	3.3-1	b L	Just held

9Van PeltF. Calderon · R. WilsonCalderon · WilsonB86 64 91▲▲+8@trip 6415-1Fair 20-14%▲▲ Big jump +886 64 91@trip 64B

Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · Best fig at today's trip 64 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 86 64 91

Jockey Francisco Calderon 37% career 8-for-41 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Renee Wilson 32% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Fall Classic 8-5, R2: Unblemished V 5-2, R3: Konklusiv 2-1, R4: Staggeringcowboy 7-2 +9 more · Trainer R6: Artic Jewels 12-1, R11: Herqlez 15-1

60D LAYOFF

Renee Wilson takes over the training from Clinton T Crawford. Off 83 days since the last start.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

TROUBLED TRIP Stumbled break last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 18d back

RECORD Francisco Calderon from post 9 here: 4 wins, 7 top-3 in 27 rides · 19% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/8	ALB	2f D	FutTrl10000	3rd/9 -1L	86	13-1	b L	Stumbled break;
6/26	ALB	1.81818f D	FutTrl10000	5th/8 -1½L	64	2.7-1	b L	Veered in start
5/23	ALB	1.59091f D	FutTrl10000	3rd/8 -½L	91	59-1	b L	In close; no rally

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

LONE STAR PARK · RACE 14

UPCOMING

Trial

Field

9 runners

Purse

$10,000

Post

11:43 AM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#1 · 41%

Stakes, for 2-year-olds.

Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 400 Yards: 19.2

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #1 Jt Midlife Crisis (a tactical type, M/L 1-1). Recent figures: 99 · 97 · 104. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #5 Talego Stone at 20-1. Use #8 Revenant Mark in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #1 JT MIDLIFE CRISIS (1-1) — our number agrees.
#1 JT MIDLIFE CRISIS — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (37.5% to their 38.0%).
#3 RUSE MAN CRYSTAL — our #4 number, about right at the windows (32.5% to their 34.6%).
#8 REVENANT MARK — our #3 number, a price play — we're at 7.6%, the board 6.9%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

Longshot the model rates above its line: #5 TALEGO STONE (20-1) — our fair 4.8% is above the morning line's 3.6%; needs the trip to fall right.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Jt Midlife Crisis, #2 Running Cowgirl 123, #3 Ruse Man Crystal.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Jt Midlife Crisis2Running Cowgirl 1233Ruse Man Crystal4Warp Speed5Talego Stone6Thistrainsrelentless7Eagle Dinasty 7278Revenant Mark9Van Pelt

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Jt Midlife Crisis

Running Cowgirl 123

Ruse Man Crystal

Warp Speed

Talego Stone

Thistrainsrelentless

Revenant Mark

Van Pelt

Bet types offeredwager menu

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

EXACTA / $.50 TRIFECTA / $.10 SUPERFECTA / DAILY DOUBLE

TBredIQ shows analysis only. We don’t build tickets or suggest amounts.

BET OPTIONS

WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta

Wagers offered on this race — analysis only, no stake sizing.