R10 Lone Star Park · Trial

9:59 PM ET · 400 Yards Dirt · $10,000 · 10 runners9:59 PM · 1.8f Dirt · 10 runners

Upcoming $10K · Trial

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles
  1. 1Caliente Cowboy 123A. Rivera · Z. StinebaughRivera · StinebaughB83 90 76►@trip 7610-1Fair 10-18%► Steady83 90 76@trip 76B

    Card model 8% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 76 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 83 90 76

    Jockey Ali Rivera 34% career 9-for-80 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Zackary Stinebaugh 36% career 0-for-16 on dirt this meet (0%) ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R1: Cowboys Love Wine 2-1, R2: Tomorrows Dynasty 9-2, R3: Candy In My Arms 6-1, R4: Curls Favorite Jet 2-1 +8 more · Trainer R1: Gjr Eaglet 30-1, R3: Dracula 20-1, R4: Eagle On The Prey 15-1, R7: Mister Sinatra 9-2 +2 more

    Class relief: maiden special weight last time, stakes nongraded today. Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power.

    PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
    WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 10d ago
    RECORD Ali Rivera from post 1 here: 6 wins, 28 top-3 in 48 rides · 17% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/26LS1.59091f DMSW2nd/10831.1-1b LBrk out;bmp;held 2nd
    8/8ALB2f DFutTrl100004th/10 -½L9020-1b LBid; tired;
    6/27ALB1.81818f DFutTrl100004th/10 -2L766.3-1b LIn close;steady effort
  2. 2Hes Your DaddyO. Martinez · R. RamirezMartinez · RamirezA93 96 86▲+33-1Fair 5-117%▲ Up +393 96 86A2

    Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +3 · Last 3 figs 93 96 86

    Jockey Oliver E Martinez 33% career 9-for-98 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Raul Ramirez 32% career 4-for-23 on dirt this meet (17%)
    Also today · Jockey R3: Bolted 15-1, R11: Jess Send Her 6-1 · Trainer R3: Bolted 15-1, R4: Pyc Dollars Cowboy 5-2, R6: Pilatus 30-1, R11: Jess Send Her 6-1
    WON LAST

    Comes in off a victory in a 10-horse allowance race at LS. Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 96, with 92 next best.

    PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
    TROUBLED TRIP Stumbld st; edged up last out; the speed figure already reflects it.
    WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Apr 3 (1.1F in :13.60), 0 works in 30d
    RECORD Oliver E Martinez from post 2 here: 5 wins, 13 top-3 in 44 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/10LS1.13636f DAlw ncWon/10931.3-1b LStumbld st;edged up
    8/22RET1.59091f DAlw n2lWon/9 by nk961.8-1b LDueled; won head bob
    8/7RET1.59091f DFutTrl100003rd/10 -1½L865.1-1b LNo menace
  3. 3Especially PerryR. Ramirez · S. WoodRamirez · WoodB85 89 63▲+4↕@trip 639-2Fair 8-111%▲ Up +485 89 63 ↕@trip 63B

    Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #9 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +4 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 63–92 · Best fig at today's trip 63 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 85 89 63

    Jockey Ricky Ramirez 33% career 7-for-53 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer S Trey Wood 28% career 4-for-28 on dirt this meet (14%)
    Also today · Jockey R3: Fearless Cowboy 7-2, R6: Agree N Tell 12-1, R7: Allikat Ttu 30-1, R8: A Noble Cowgirl 30-1 +3 more · Trainer R1: Timeto Quit 30-1, R2: Rr Evil Jess 30-1, R3: Fearless Cowboy 7-2, R4: Delightfully Sage 6-1 +11 more
    ★ FASTEST WORK

    2 wins from 4 starts at this distance. Was running in allowance; today's stakes nongraded is an easier level on paper.

    PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 158 days ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/2LS1½f DAlw n1x10th/10 -3½L854.0-1b LNo factor
    8/8ALB2f DFutTrl10000Won/10894.6-1b LBest late;
    6/26ALB1.81818f DFutTrl100006th/9 -3½L631.4-1b LBroke out; bumped
  4. 4Pitching WooLSL. Vivanco · M. Reyes Jr.Vivanco · Reyes Jr.B86 68 75▲▲+13@trip 8220-1Fair 15-16%▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best86 68 75@trip 82BLS

    Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 82 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 86 68 75

    LS

    Longshot read: 20-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 6% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.

    Jockey Luis L Vivanco 36% career 10-for-70 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Marcelo Jr Reyes 21% career 0-for-8 on dirt this meet (0%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: Abouta Get Western 5-1, R2: Mondays Best 20-1, R7: Coronas First Cowboy 2-1, R9: The Real Mvp Z 15-1 +2 more

    Finished 3rd in a 10-horse maiden claiming $10,000 race at LS, beaten ½ length. Drops from maiden claiming $10,000 to stakes nongraded.

    PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
    WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 13d ago
    RECORD Luis L Vivanco from post 4 here: 5 wins, 17 top-3 in 40 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/2LS1.59091f DsMd100003rd/10 -½L862.6-1b LVied btwn;missed
    9/19LS1.81818f DFutTrl100008th/10 -6¼L6840-1b LNo rally
    8/22RET1.59091f DMSW4th/9 -6½L7512-1b LNo threat
  5. 5Flying Jameson★F. Calderon · J. JoinerCalderon · JoinerA89 88 81▲+3≡@trip 895-2Fair 7-222%▲ Up +3 · career best89 88 81 ≡@trip 89A★ Best at the trip 891

    Card model 22% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +3 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 81–89 · Best fig at today's trip 89 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 89 88 81

    ★ Best at the trip 89
    Jockey Francisco Calderon 37% career 8-for-41 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Justin W Joiner 32% career ★ 5-for-21 on dirt this meet (24%) ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R1: Fall Classic 8-5, R2: Unblemished V 5-2, R3: Konklusiv 2-1, R4: Staggeringcowboy 7-2 +9 more · Trainer R1: My Special Blood 30-1, R2: The Cowboys A Legend 12-1, R3: Favorite Power Cc 30-1, R4: Staggeringcowboy 7-2 +6 more
    WON LAST

    Figures are climbing: 81, 88, 89 over its last three. Winner of a 10-horse maiden special weight race at LS last time.

    PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
    SHARP LAST OUT Last time the chart read: Drew well clear.
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 37d back)
    RECORD Francisco Calderon from post 5 here: 9 wins, 20 top-3 in 41 rides · 19% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/3LS1.81818f DMSWWon/10890.2-1b LDrew well clear
    8/7ALB2f DFutTrl100005th/10 -2L886.2-1b LImproved position;
    6/27ALB1.81818f DFutTrl100003rd/9 -1L811.9-1b LSteady bid; not enough
  6. 6Cyber IntelligenceA. Medina · G. GonzalezMedina · GonzalezC73 86 86▼▼-10@trip 7312-1Fair 12-18%▼▼ Big drop -1073 86 86@trip 73C3

    Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #3 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -10 · Best fig at today's trip 73 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 86 86

    Jockey Alejandro Medina 35% career 5-for-48 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Gilberto Gonzalez 31% career 1-for-32 on dirt this meet (3%) ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R11: Bullet Prooff 30-1 · Trainer R4: Norwalk 20-1, R6: Zendeya 30-1, R11: Bullet Prooff 30-1

    Jockey switch: Jose R Herbert last out, Alejandro Medina today. 0 for 7 at today's distance.

    PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 217 days ago
    RECORD Alejandro Medina from post 6 here: 2 wins, 2 top-3 in 16 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/19LS1.81818f DFutTrl100004th/10 -2½L7331-1b LMildly
    8/22RET1.59091f DMSW2nd/9 -4L862.4-1b LBid; second best
    8/7RET1.59091f DFutTrl100002nd/10 -½L8613-1b LBid; second best
  7. 7Kj BigbadleroybrownG. Medrano · W. GilesMedrano · GilesC74 86@trip 748-1Fair 10-18%—74 86@trip 74C

    Card model 8% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Best fig at today's trip 74 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 86

    Jockey Gabriel Medrano 22% career · Trainer Wesley T Giles 33% career 2-for-4 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R4: Kj Casanova Cowboy 30-1, R13: Shellys Valiant Boy 15-1, R15: Whole Lota Macho 15-1 · Trainer R1: Abouta Get Western 5-1, R3: Kj Macho Man 12-1, R4: Kj Casanova Cowboy 30-1, R7: Lethal Wind 9-5 +3 more
    60D LAYOFF

    Back after 126 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. The longest gap in the field. 2nd of 23 at 1F on Jun 11, in :11.60.

    PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
    WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 17d back

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    6/26ALB1.81818f DFutTrl100003rd/8 -2¼L743.7-1b LBroke in;just missd 2d
    5/22ALB1.59091f DFutTrl100004th/10 -½L866.4-1b LIn close; not enough
  8. 8Coco B TrainJ. Olivas · J. GonzalesOlivas · GonzalesC8420-1Fair 30-14%—84C

    Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 84

    Jockey Jesus Olivas 21% career 3-for-24 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer James Julian Ii Gonzales 27% career 1-for-15 on dirt this meet (7%)
    Also today · Jockey R3: Walk Thru Monday 20-1, R4: Apolitical Cowgirl 20-1, R6: Artic Jewels 12-1, R11: Herqlez 15-1 · Trainer R3: Walk Thru Monday 20-1, R4: Apolitical Cowgirl 20-1

    Worked 1F in :12.60 on Apr 30, 2nd of 17 at the distance. Was running in maiden special weight; today's stakes nongraded is an easier level on paper.

    PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 54 days ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/2LS1.59091f DMSW3rd/10 -5L8418-1b LLate rally
  9. 9ReverzcowgirlG. Linares · J. StinebaughLinares · StinebaughA85 87 82►≡5-1Fair 8-111%► Steady85 87 82 ≡A

    Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #6 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 82–91 · Last 3 figs 85 87 82

    Jockey Gilberto Linares 33% career 8-for-48 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer John A Stinebaugh 36% career 10-for-52 on dirt this meet (19%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: Rocking Cowboy 6-1, R3: Dracula 20-1, R4: Eagle On The Prey 15-1, R7: Your Flying Dreams 30-1 +4 more · Trainer R1: Cowboys Love Wine 2-1, R2: Tomorrows Dynasty 9-2, R3: Candy In My Arms 6-1, R4: Curls Favorite Jet 2-1 +8 more

    A 48-day gap since its last race. Last out was 2nd, ¾ length behind the winner, in a 10-horse allowance race at LS.

    PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 16d back

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/12LS1.36364f DAlw n2l2nd/10 -¾L851.6-1b LStmbld;pinballd;rally
    8/13RET1.13636f DAlw n2l2nd/9 -1L871.0-1b LRallied; up for place
    7/2RET1.59091f DsFutTrl100005th/10 -½L821.9-1b LBid; empty
  10. 10Encinas LegacyN. Duran · C. LopezDuran · LopezC77 85 84▼▼-820-1Fair 20-15%▼▼ Big drop -877 85 84C

    Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -8 · Last 3 figs 77 85 84

    Jockey Nestor Duran 40% career 1-for-19 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer Carlos Lopez 26% career 3-for-30 on dirt this meet (10%)
    Also today · Jockey R3: Ohtani 30-1, R6: Cowboys Flying 2-5, R9: Cajuns 123 6-5, R12: Sleepy Chilitos 6-5 · Trainer R3: Ohtani 30-1

    Gets a new rider, Nestor Duran replacing Ali Rivera. Drops from maiden special weight to stakes nongraded.

    PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
    WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 101d ago
    RECORD Nestor Duran from post 10 here: 5 wins, 14 top-3 in 30 rides · 15% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/8LS1.59091f DMSW5th/10 -3L772.4-1b LBrk out;bmp twice
    9/18LS1½f DMSW4th/8 -1½L852.8-1b LNeeded more kick
    8/7ALB2f DFutTrl100004th/8 -2½L8434-1b LNo rally;

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks
1 2 3
Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair
The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?
The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72
Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕
≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★
Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips
Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
FINISHSTART400 YARDS · DIRT · mainstraight course

LONE STAR PARK · RACE 10

UPCOMING

Trial

Field
10 runners
Purse
$10,000
Post
9:59 PM ET
Pace
Pace Vacuum
Card model top pick
#5 · 22%

Stakes, for 2-year-olds.

Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 400 Yards: 19.2

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #5 Flying Jameson (a tactical type, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 89 · 88 · 81. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #2 Hes Your Daddy at 3-1. Use #6 Cyber Intelligence in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

  • Market favourite #5 FLYING JAMESON (5-2) — our number agrees.
  • #5 FLYING JAMESON — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (21.8% to their 21.9%).
  • #2 HES YOUR DADDY — our #2 number, about right at the windows (19.8% to their 19.1%).
  • #3 ESPECIALLY PERRY — our #9 number, about right at the windows (12.6% to their 13.9%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

  • The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Caliente Cowboy 123, #2 Hes Your Daddy, #3 Especially Perry.

Lead
none
Press
none
Stalk
none
Close
none
No style yet
1Caliente Cowboy 1232Hes Your Daddy3Especially Perry4Pitching Woo5Flying Jameson6Cyber Intelligence7Kj Bigbadleroybrown8Coco B Train9Reverzcowgirl10Encinas Legacy

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

1
Caliente Cowboy 123
0
2
Hes Your Daddy
0
3
Especially Perry
0
4
Pitching Woo
0
5
Flying Jameson
0
6
Cyber Intelligence
0
7
Kj Bigbadleroybrown
0
8
Coco B Train
0
9
Reverzcowgirl
0
10
Encinas Legacy
0
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Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

EXACTA / $.50 TRIFECTA / $.10 SUPERFECTA / DAILY DOUBLE

$.50 PICK 3 (RACES 10-11-12) / $.50 PICK 6 (RACES 10-11-12-13-14-15)

TBredIQ shows analysis only. We don’t build tickets or suggest amounts.

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