★ Distance horse: #3 Jc Canelo (5-2) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 94 from 2 tries. Not in our top three.
1Fearless CowboyR. Ramirez · S. WoodRamirez · WoodB92 84 76▲▲+9@trip 847-2Fair 5-117%
▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best92 84 76@trip 84B2Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 84 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 92 84 76
Jockey Ricky Ramirez 33% career 7-for-53 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer S Trey Wood 28% career 4-for-28 on dirt this meet (14%)Also today · Jockey R6: Agree N Tell 12-1, R7: Allikat Ttu 30-1, R8: A Noble Cowgirl 30-1, R9: Cowgirl Eats Fire 4-1 +3 more · Trainer R1: Timeto Quit 30-1, R2: Rr Evil Jess 30-1, R4: Delightfully Sage 6-1, R5: Sashay My Life Away 12-1 +11 more60D LAYOFFWON LASTComes in off a victory in a 10-horse stakes race at ALB. Has moved up each time out, 76 to 84 to 92.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 21d agoRECORD Ricky Ramirez from post 1 here: 2 wins, 9 top-3 in 23 rides · 14% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/8 ALB 2f D FutTrl10000 Won/10 92 2.3-1 b L Cruised; 7/11 ALB 1.81818f D MSW 3rd/10 -1L 84 1.9-1 b L Rallied; faltered late 6/26 ALB 1.81818f D FutTrl10000 3rd/9 by nk 76 1.4-1 b L Veered in start;closed 2KonklusivF. Calderon · J. VazquezCalderon · VazquezA92 78 91▲+7@trip 782-1Fair 5-228%
▲ Up +7 · career best92 78 91@trip 78A1Card model 28% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +7 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 78 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 92 78 91
Jockey Francisco Calderon 37% career 8-for-41 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Juan L Vazquez 30% career 2-for-6 on dirt this meetAlso today · Jockey R1: Fall Classic 8-5, R2: Unblemished V 5-2, R4: Staggeringcowboy 7-2, R5: Marvelous Marv 3-1 +9 more · Trainer R1: Ratically Inspyred 20-1, R7: Reddingten 15-1, R15: Mounte Rushmore 20-160D LAYOFFWON LASTHas won 4 of 5 going today's distance. Last start was a win, in a 10-horse race at ALB at 3.5-1.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 17d backRECORD Francisco Calderon from post 2 here: 11 wins, 26 top-3 in 44 rides · 19% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/7 ALB 2f D Trial Won/10 92 3.5-1 b L Speed all the way; 6/26 ALB 1.81818f D FutTrl10000 4th/8 -1L 78 0.7-1 b L Broke in; vied; hung 5/29 RP 1.59091f D HertgPlJuv100k Won/10 91 1.7-1 b L First2fire;first2wire 3Jc Canelo★V. Urieta Jr. · A. HerreraUrieta Jr. · HerreraA94 85 73▲▲+9↕@trip 945-2Fair 9-218%
▲▲ Big jump +994 85 73 ↕@trip 94A★ Best at the trip 94Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 73–97 · Best fig at today's trip 94 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 94 85 73
★ Best at the trip 94Jockey Victor Manuel Jr Urieta 18-for-99 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Arnold G Herrera 24% career 2-for-9 on dirt this meet (22%)Also today · Jockey R7: Dk Bonita Jess 4-1, R8: A Fortunate Cowboy 5-2, R9: Cowgirl Lyndi G 30-1, R13: Nena C 9-2 +1 moreWON LASTRuns for $10,000 today after a $50,590 race last time. Owns the highest recent figure here at 97.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 64 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/10 LS 1.81818f D DshCashJuv51k Won/10 94 8.7-1 b Brk in;closed up 9/19 LS 1.81818f D FutTrl10000 4th/10 -1¾L 85 2.4-1 b Brk out;bmp;imprv late 7/2 RET 1.59091f D sFutTrl10000 3rd/9 -2L 73 1.2-1 b Bumped both sides 4DraculaG. Linares · Z. StinebaughLinares · StinebaughC77 83 71►@trip 7120-1Fair 20-14%
► Steady77 83 71@trip 71CCard model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 71 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 83 71
Jockey Gilberto Linares 33% career 8-for-48 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Zackary Stinebaugh 36% career 0-for-16 on dirt this meet (0%)Also today · Jockey R1: Rocking Cowboy 6-1, R4: Eagle On The Prey 15-1, R7: Your Flying Dreams 30-1, R8: Get Aggressive 5-1 +4 more · Trainer R1: Gjr Eaglet 30-1, R4: Eagle On The Prey 15-1, R7: Mister Sinatra 9-2, R10: Caliente Cowboy 123 10-1 +2 more★ FASTEST WORKMoves up from stakes to stakes nongraded. A 45-day gap since its last race.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.TROUBLED TRIP Rough start; good 3rd last out; the speed figure already reflects it.WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 15 (1.5F in :16.80), 1 work in 30dRECORD Gilberto Linares from post 4 here: 3 wins, 9 top-3 in 21 rides · 15% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/15 WRD 1.59091f D FutTrl5000 3rd/9 -1¼L 77 2.1-1 b L Rough start;good 3rd 8/8 ALB 2f D FutTrl10000 4th/10 -1L 83 5.3-1 b L Winner too tuff; 6/26 ALB 1.81818f D FutTrl10000 7th/10 -3¼L 71 5.2-1 b L Came in start 5Favorite Power CcM. Delgado · J. JoinerDelgado · JoinerC81 7030-1Fair 30-13%
—81 70CCard model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 81 70
Jockey Mario Delgado 32% career 2-for-14 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Justin W Joiner 32% career ★ 5-for-21 on dirt this meet (24%)Also today · Jockey R1: My Special Blood 30-1, R2: The Cowboys A Legend 12-1, R8: Thys Kyss 20-1, R11: Differentiator 5-1 +2 more · Trainer R1: My Special Blood 30-1, R2: The Cowboys A Legend 12-1, R4: Staggeringcowboy 7-2, R5: Gunsmoke 123 15-1 +6 more2nd of 57 at 1F on Jul 18, in :11.40. Was running in maiden special weight; today's stakes nongraded is an easier level on paper.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 50d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/1 LS 2f D MSW 4th/9 -1L 81 7.7-1 b L Late kick 5/8 RP 1.59091f D FutTrl15000 7th/8 -4¼L 70 21-1 b L Lacked serious bid 6Candy in My ArmsA. Rivera · J. StinebaughRivera · StinebaughA94 86 84▲▲+8@trip 846-1Fair 7-112%
▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best94 86 84@trip 84A3Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 84 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 94 86 84
Jockey Ali Rivera 34% career 9-for-80 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer John A Stinebaugh 36% career 10-for-52 on dirt this meet (19%) ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R1: Cowboys Love Wine 2-1, R2: Tomorrows Dynasty 9-2, R4: Curls Favorite Jet 2-1, R5: Mae Dynasty 20-1 +8 more · Trainer R1: Cowboys Love Wine 2-1, R2: Tomorrows Dynasty 9-2, R4: Curls Favorite Jet 2-1, R5: Mae Dynasty 20-1 +8 moreJky 17/59 from post 6Figures are climbing: 84, 86, 94 over its last three. Beaten a head for 2nd in a 9-horse maiden special weight race at LS.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 0 works in 30d, last 37d backRECORD Ali Rivera from post 6 here: 17 wins, 33 top-3 in 59 rides · 17% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/1 LS 1.59091f D MSW 2nd/9 by hd 94 0.7-1 b L Stmbld;just missed 8/7 ALB 2f D FutTrl10000 3rd/10 -1¾L 86 5.0-1 b L Tired 6/27 ALB 1.81818f D FutTrl10000 2nd/9 by hd 84 1.4-1 b L Vied throughout 7Walk Thru MondayLSJ. Olivas · J. GonzalesOlivas · GonzalesC8520-1Fair 20-14%
—85CLSCard model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 85
LSLongshot read: 20-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 4% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Jesus Olivas 21% career 3-for-24 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer James Julian Ii Gonzales 27% career 1-for-15 on dirt this meet (7%)Also today · Jockey R4: Apolitical Cowgirl 20-1, R6: Artic Jewels 12-1, R10: Coco B Train 20-1, R11: Herqlez 15-1 · Trainer R4: Apolitical Cowgirl 20-1, R10: Coco B Train 20-1180D+ LAYOFFReturns from a 225-day break, the biggest in the field. A big drop, maiden special weight to stakes nongraded, and worth asking why.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Bobbled; held 2nd. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 17d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 3/19 RP 1.36364f D MSW 2nd/10 by nk 85 2.0-1 b L Bobbled; held 2nd 8BoltedO. Martinez · R. RamirezMartinez · RamirezB86 86 76▲▲+11↕15-1Fair 20-15%
▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best86 86 76 ↕BCard model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 63–86 · Last 3 figs 86 86 76
Jockey Oliver E Martinez 33% career 9-for-98 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Raul Ramirez 32% career 4-for-23 on dirt this meet (17%)Also today · Jockey R10: Hes Your Daddy 3-1, R11: Jess Send Her 6-1 · Trainer R4: Pyc Dollars Cowboy 5-2, R6: Pilatus 30-1, R10: Hes Your Daddy 3-1, R11: Jess Send Her 6-1Winless in 4 starts at this distance. Finished 3rd in a 10-horse maiden special weight race at LS, beaten ½ length.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 184d agoRECORD Oliver E Martinez from post 8 here: 3 wins, 6 top-3 in 34 rides · 12% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/25 LS 1½f D sMdSpWt 3rd/10 -½L 86 7.6-1 b L Mildly imprvd 8/8 RET 1½f D sMdSpWt 3rd/10 by hd 86 5.3-1 b L Bid; empty late 7/2 RET 1.59091f D sFutTrl10000 7th/10 -1¾L 76 74-1 b L Weakened 9OhtaniN. Duran · C. LopezDuran · LopezC78 65 60▲▲+1630-1Fair 30-13%
▲▲ Big jump +16 · career best78 65 60CCard model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +16 · career best · Last 3 figs 78 65 60
Jockey Nestor Duran 40% career 1-for-19 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer Carlos Lopez 26% career 3-for-30 on dirt this meet (10%)Also today · Jockey R6: Cowboys Flying 2-5, R9: Cajuns 123 6-5, R10: Encinas Legacy 20-1, R12: Sleepy Chilitos 6-5 · Trainer R10: Encinas Legacy 20-1Figures are climbing: 60, 65, 78 over its last three. Winless in 4 starts at this distance.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 83 days agoRECORD Nestor Duran from post 9 here: 2 wins, 10 top-3 in 30 rides · 15% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/2 LS 1.59091f D MSW 6th/10 -6¼L 78 33-1 b L Mildly imprvd 8/20 RET 1.59091f D MSW 10th/10 -3½L 65 30-1 b L No factor 5/30 HOU 1.13636f D MSW 6th/9 -3¼L 60 7.6-1 b L No threat 10Kj Macho ManF. Zamora · W. GilesZamora · GilesB71 85 79▼▼-16↕@trip 7912-1Fair 15-16%
▼▼ Big drop -1671 85 79 ↕@trip 79BCard model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -16 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 71–97 · Best fig at today's trip 79 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 85 79
Jockey Francisco Zamora 14% career 1-for-1 on dirt this meet · Trainer Wesley T Giles 33% career 2-for-4 on dirt this meetAlso today · Jockey R7: Lethal Wind 9-5, R11: Kj Renegade 8-1 · Trainer R1: Abouta Get Western 5-1, R4: Kj Casanova Cowboy 30-1, R7: Lethal Wind 9-5, R10: Kj Bigbadleroybrown 8-1 +3 moreBest Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 97, with 94 next best. Worked 1F in :11.40 on Jul 21, 3rd of 32 at the distance.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 1F on Jan 19; 0 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/25 ALB 1.81818f D FutTrl8000 3rd/8 -2½L 71 7.9-1 b L Winner too tuff; 8/7 ALB 2f D FutTrl10000 7th/10 -2¾L 85 5.2-1 b L No rally; 6/26 ALB 1.81818f D FutTrl10000 2nd/9 by hd 79 0.9-1 b L Broke out;dueled; game
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
LONE STAR PARK · RACE 3
UPCOMINGTrial
Stakes, for 2-year-olds.
Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.
● Breed: Quarter Horse
● Track record at 400 Yards: 19.2
The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.
Our number tops on #2 Konklusiv (a tactical type, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 92 · 78 · 91. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #1 Fearless Cowboy at 7-2. Use #6 Candy In My Arms in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #2 KONKLUSIV (2-1) — our number agrees.
- #2 KONKLUSIV — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (26.1% to their 26.0%).
- #3 JC CANELO — our #4 number, about right at the windows (21.7% to their 22.3%).
- #1 FEARLESS COWBOY — our #2 number, about right at the windows (18.3% to their 17.3%).
Model vs the morning line
- The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.
and works against #1 Fearless Cowboy, #2 Konklusiv, #3 Jc Canelo.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
EXACTA / $.50 TRIFECTA / $.10 SUPERFECTA / DAILY DOUBLE
$.50 PICK 3 (RACES 3-4-5)
BET OPTIONS
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