R3 Lone Star Park · Trial

6:57 PM ET · 400 Yards Dirt · $10,000 · 10 runners6:57 PM · 1.8f Dirt · 10 runners

Upcoming $10K · Trial

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #3 Jc Canelo (5-2) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 94 from 2 tries. Not in our top three.

  1. 1Fearless CowboyR. Ramirez · S. WoodRamirez · WoodB92 84 76▲▲+9@trip 847-2Fair 5-117%▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best92 84 76@trip 84B2

    Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 84 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 92 84 76

    Jockey Ricky Ramirez 33% career 7-for-53 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer S Trey Wood 28% career 4-for-28 on dirt this meet (14%)
    Also today · Jockey R6: Agree N Tell 12-1, R7: Allikat Ttu 30-1, R8: A Noble Cowgirl 30-1, R9: Cowgirl Eats Fire 4-1 +3 more · Trainer R1: Timeto Quit 30-1, R2: Rr Evil Jess 30-1, R4: Delightfully Sage 6-1, R5: Sashay My Life Away 12-1 +11 more
    60D LAYOFFWON LAST

    Comes in off a victory in a 10-horse stakes race at ALB. Has moved up each time out, 76 to 84 to 92.

    PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
    WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 21d ago
    RECORD Ricky Ramirez from post 1 here: 2 wins, 9 top-3 in 23 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    8/8ALB2f DFutTrl10000Won/10922.3-1b LCruised;
    7/11ALB1.81818f DMSW3rd/10 -1L841.9-1b LRallied; faltered late
    6/26ALB1.81818f DFutTrl100003rd/9 by nk761.4-1b LVeered in start;closed
  2. 2KonklusivF. Calderon · J. VazquezCalderon · VazquezA92 78 91▲+7@trip 782-1Fair 5-228%▲ Up +7 · career best92 78 91@trip 78A1

    Card model 28% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +7 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 78 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 92 78 91

    Jockey Francisco Calderon 37% career 8-for-41 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Juan L Vazquez 30% career 2-for-6 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R1: Fall Classic 8-5, R2: Unblemished V 5-2, R4: Staggeringcowboy 7-2, R5: Marvelous Marv 3-1 +9 more · Trainer R1: Ratically Inspyred 20-1, R7: Reddingten 15-1, R15: Mounte Rushmore 20-1
    60D LAYOFFWON LAST

    Has won 4 of 5 going today's distance. Last start was a win, in a 10-horse race at ALB at 3.5-1.

    PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 17d back
    RECORD Francisco Calderon from post 2 here: 11 wins, 26 top-3 in 44 rides · 19% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    8/7ALB2f DTrialWon/10923.5-1b LSpeed all the way;
    6/26ALB1.81818f DFutTrl100004th/8 -1L780.7-1b LBroke in; vied; hung
    5/29RP1.59091f DHertgPlJuv100kWon/10911.7-1b LFirst2fire;first2wire
  3. 3Jc Canelo★V. Urieta Jr. · A. HerreraUrieta Jr. · HerreraA94 85 73▲▲+9↕@trip 945-2Fair 9-218%▲▲ Big jump +994 85 73 ↕@trip 94A★ Best at the trip 94

    Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 73–97 · Best fig at today's trip 94 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 94 85 73

    ★ Best at the trip 94
    Jockey Victor Manuel Jr Urieta 18-for-99 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Arnold G Herrera 24% career 2-for-9 on dirt this meet (22%)
    Also today · Jockey R7: Dk Bonita Jess 4-1, R8: A Fortunate Cowboy 5-2, R9: Cowgirl Lyndi G 30-1, R13: Nena C 9-2 +1 more
    WON LAST

    Runs for $10,000 today after a $50,590 race last time. Owns the highest recent figure here at 97.

    PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 64 days ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/10LS1.81818f DDshCashJuv51kWon/10948.7-1bBrk in;closed up
    9/19LS1.81818f DFutTrl100004th/10 -1¾L852.4-1bBrk out;bmp;imprv late
    7/2RET1.59091f DsFutTrl100003rd/9 -2L731.2-1bBumped both sides
  4. 4DraculaG. Linares · Z. StinebaughLinares · StinebaughC77 83 71►@trip 7120-1Fair 20-14%► Steady77 83 71@trip 71C

    Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 71 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 83 71

    Jockey Gilberto Linares 33% career 8-for-48 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Zackary Stinebaugh 36% career 0-for-16 on dirt this meet (0%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: Rocking Cowboy 6-1, R4: Eagle On The Prey 15-1, R7: Your Flying Dreams 30-1, R8: Get Aggressive 5-1 +4 more · Trainer R1: Gjr Eaglet 30-1, R4: Eagle On The Prey 15-1, R7: Mister Sinatra 9-2, R10: Caliente Cowboy 123 10-1 +2 more
    ★ FASTEST WORK

    Moves up from stakes to stakes nongraded. A 45-day gap since its last race.

    PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
    TROUBLED TRIP Rough start; good 3rd last out; the speed figure already reflects it.
    WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 15 (1.5F in :16.80), 1 work in 30d
    RECORD Gilberto Linares from post 4 here: 3 wins, 9 top-3 in 21 rides · 15% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/15WRD1.59091f DFutTrl50003rd/9 -1¼L772.1-1b LRough start;good 3rd
    8/8ALB2f DFutTrl100004th/10 -1L835.3-1b LWinner too tuff;
    6/26ALB1.81818f DFutTrl100007th/10 -3¼L715.2-1b LCame in start
  5. 5Favorite Power CcM. Delgado · J. JoinerDelgado · JoinerC81 7030-1Fair 30-13%—81 70C

    Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 81 70

    Jockey Mario Delgado 32% career 2-for-14 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Justin W Joiner 32% career ★ 5-for-21 on dirt this meet (24%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: My Special Blood 30-1, R2: The Cowboys A Legend 12-1, R8: Thys Kyss 20-1, R11: Differentiator 5-1 +2 more · Trainer R1: My Special Blood 30-1, R2: The Cowboys A Legend 12-1, R4: Staggeringcowboy 7-2, R5: Gunsmoke 123 15-1 +6 more

    2nd of 57 at 1F on Jul 18, in :11.40. Was running in maiden special weight; today's stakes nongraded is an easier level on paper.

    PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
    WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 50d ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/1LS2f DMSW4th/9 -1L817.7-1b LLate kick
    5/8RP1.59091f DFutTrl150007th/8 -4¼L7021-1b LLacked serious bid
  6. 6Candy in My ArmsA. Rivera · J. StinebaughRivera · StinebaughA94 86 84▲▲+8@trip 846-1Fair 7-112%▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best94 86 84@trip 84A3

    Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 84 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 94 86 84

    Jockey Ali Rivera 34% career 9-for-80 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer John A Stinebaugh 36% career 10-for-52 on dirt this meet (19%) ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R1: Cowboys Love Wine 2-1, R2: Tomorrows Dynasty 9-2, R4: Curls Favorite Jet 2-1, R5: Mae Dynasty 20-1 +8 more · Trainer R1: Cowboys Love Wine 2-1, R2: Tomorrows Dynasty 9-2, R4: Curls Favorite Jet 2-1, R5: Mae Dynasty 20-1 +8 more
    Jky 17/59 from post 6

    Figures are climbing: 84, 86, 94 over its last three. Beaten a head for 2nd in a 9-horse maiden special weight race at LS.

    PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
    WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 0 works in 30d, last 37d back
    RECORD Ali Rivera from post 6 here: 17 wins, 33 top-3 in 59 rides · 17% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/1LS1.59091f DMSW2nd/9 by hd940.7-1b LStmbld;just missed
    8/7ALB2f DFutTrl100003rd/10 -1¾L865.0-1b LTired
    6/27ALB1.81818f DFutTrl100002nd/9 by hd841.4-1b LVied throughout
  7. 7Walk Thru MondayLSJ. Olivas · J. GonzalesOlivas · GonzalesC8520-1Fair 20-14%—85CLS

    Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 85

    LS

    Longshot read: 20-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 4% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.

    Jockey Jesus Olivas 21% career 3-for-24 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer James Julian Ii Gonzales 27% career 1-for-15 on dirt this meet (7%)
    Also today · Jockey R4: Apolitical Cowgirl 20-1, R6: Artic Jewels 12-1, R10: Coco B Train 20-1, R11: Herqlez 15-1 · Trainer R4: Apolitical Cowgirl 20-1, R10: Coco B Train 20-1
    180D+ LAYOFF

    Returns from a 225-day break, the biggest in the field. A big drop, maiden special weight to stakes nongraded, and worth asking why.

    PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
    TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Bobbled; held 2nd. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.
    WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 17d ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    3/19RP1.36364f DMSW2nd/10 by nk852.0-1b LBobbled; held 2nd
  8. 8BoltedO. Martinez · R. RamirezMartinez · RamirezB86 86 76▲▲+11↕15-1Fair 20-15%▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best86 86 76 ↕B

    Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 63–86 · Last 3 figs 86 86 76

    Jockey Oliver E Martinez 33% career 9-for-98 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Raul Ramirez 32% career 4-for-23 on dirt this meet (17%)
    Also today · Jockey R10: Hes Your Daddy 3-1, R11: Jess Send Her 6-1 · Trainer R4: Pyc Dollars Cowboy 5-2, R6: Pilatus 30-1, R10: Hes Your Daddy 3-1, R11: Jess Send Her 6-1

    Winless in 4 starts at this distance. Finished 3rd in a 10-horse maiden special weight race at LS, beaten ½ length.

    PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
    WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 184d ago
    RECORD Oliver E Martinez from post 8 here: 3 wins, 6 top-3 in 34 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/25LS1½f DsMdSpWt3rd/10 -½L867.6-1b LMildly imprvd
    8/8RET1½f DsMdSpWt3rd/10 by hd865.3-1b LBid; empty late
    7/2RET1.59091f DsFutTrl100007th/10 -1¾L7674-1b LWeakened
  9. 9OhtaniN. Duran · C. LopezDuran · LopezC78 65 60▲▲+1630-1Fair 30-13%▲▲ Big jump +16 · career best78 65 60C

    Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +16 · career best · Last 3 figs 78 65 60

    Jockey Nestor Duran 40% career 1-for-19 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer Carlos Lopez 26% career 3-for-30 on dirt this meet (10%)
    Also today · Jockey R6: Cowboys Flying 2-5, R9: Cajuns 123 6-5, R10: Encinas Legacy 20-1, R12: Sleepy Chilitos 6-5 · Trainer R10: Encinas Legacy 20-1

    Figures are climbing: 60, 65, 78 over its last three. Winless in 4 starts at this distance.

    PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 83 days ago
    RECORD Nestor Duran from post 9 here: 2 wins, 10 top-3 in 30 rides · 15% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/2LS1.59091f DMSW6th/10 -6¼L7833-1b LMildly imprvd
    8/20RET1.59091f DMSW10th/10 -3½L6530-1b LNo factor
    5/30HOU1.13636f DMSW6th/9 -3¼L607.6-1b LNo threat
  10. 10Kj Macho ManF. Zamora · W. GilesZamora · GilesB71 85 79▼▼-16↕@trip 7912-1Fair 15-16%▼▼ Big drop -1671 85 79 ↕@trip 79B

    Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -16 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 71–97 · Best fig at today's trip 79 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 85 79

    Jockey Francisco Zamora 14% career 1-for-1 on dirt this meet · Trainer Wesley T Giles 33% career 2-for-4 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R7: Lethal Wind 9-5, R11: Kj Renegade 8-1 · Trainer R1: Abouta Get Western 5-1, R4: Kj Casanova Cowboy 30-1, R7: Lethal Wind 9-5, R10: Kj Bigbadleroybrown 8-1 +3 more

    Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 97, with 94 next best. Worked 1F in :11.40 on Jul 21, 3rd of 32 at the distance.

    PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
    WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 1F on Jan 19; 0 works in 30d

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/25ALB1.81818f DFutTrl80003rd/8 -2½L717.9-1b LWinner too tuff;
    8/7ALB2f DFutTrl100007th/10 -2¾L855.2-1b LNo rally;
    6/26ALB1.81818f DFutTrl100002nd/9 by hd790.9-1b LBroke out;dueled; game

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks
1 2 3
Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair
The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?
The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72
Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕
≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★
Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips
Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
FINISHSTART400 YARDS · DIRT · mainstraight course

LONE STAR PARK · RACE 3

UPCOMING

Trial

Field
10 runners
Purse
$10,000
Post
6:57 PM ET
Pace
Pace Vacuum
Card model top pick
#2 · 28%

Stakes, for 2-year-olds.

Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 400 Yards: 19.2

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #2 Konklusiv (a tactical type, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 92 · 78 · 91. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #1 Fearless Cowboy at 7-2. Use #6 Candy In My Arms in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

  • Market favourite #2 KONKLUSIV (2-1) — our number agrees.
  • #2 KONKLUSIV — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (26.1% to their 26.0%).
  • #3 JC CANELO — our #4 number, about right at the windows (21.7% to their 22.3%).
  • #1 FEARLESS COWBOY — our #2 number, about right at the windows (18.3% to their 17.3%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

  • The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Fearless Cowboy, #2 Konklusiv, #3 Jc Canelo.

Lead
none
Press
none
Stalk
none
Close
none
No style yet
1Fearless Cowboy2Konklusiv3Jc Canelo4Dracula5Favorite Power Cc6Candy In My Arms7Walk Thru Monday8Bolted9Ohtani10Kj Macho Man

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

1
Fearless Cowboy
0
2
Konklusiv
0
3
Jc Canelo
0
4
Dracula
0
5
Favorite Power Cc
0
6
Candy In My Arms
0
7
Walk Thru Monday
0
8
Bolted
0
9
Ohtani
0
10
Kj Macho Man
0
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Bet types

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