R6 Lone Star Park · Trial

8:15 PM ET · 400 Yards Dirt · $10,000 · 10 runners8:15 PM · 1.8f Dirt · 10 runners

Upcoming $10K · Trial

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #9 Zendeya (30-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 98 from 4 tries. Not in our top three.

  1. 1Dangerous LeighO. Andrade Jr. · S. WoodAndrade Jr. · WoodB94 71 82▲▲+18↕@trip 7115-1Fair 15-16%▲▲ Big jump +18 · career best94 71 82 ↕@trip 71B3

    Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +18 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 71–94 · Best fig at today's trip 71 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 94 71 82

    Jockey Oscar Jr Andrade 14% career · Trainer S Trey Wood 28% career 4-for-28 on dirt this meet (14%)
    Also today · Jockey R5: Johnson Kreek 20-1 · Trainer R1: Timeto Quit 30-1, R2: Rr Evil Jess 30-1, R3: Fearless Cowboy 7-2, R4: Delightfully Sage 6-1 +11 more
    ◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE60D LAYOFF

    91 days since the last start, the longest layoff in here, so it needs the works to say it's ready. Drops from maiden special weight to stakes nongraded.

    PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
    TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Bumped brk; bid), and the figure already reflects it.
    WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 20d back

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    7/31ALB1.36364f DMSW4th/9 -½L945.4-1b LBumped brk; bid
    6/26ALB1.81818f DFutTrl100008th/10 -3¼L719.4-1b LCrowded late; outrun
    5/22ALB1.59091f DFutTrl100005th/9 -2½L826.6-1b LMid pack; no rally
  2. 2Mr Cartel FavoriteA. Rivera · J. StinebaughRivera · StinebaughA92 89 74▲▲+18↕@trip 895-1Fair 8-111%▲▲ Big jump +18 · career best92 89 74 ↕@trip 89A

    Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +18 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 58–92 · Best fig at today's trip 89 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 92 89 74

    Jockey Ali Rivera 34% career 9-for-80 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer John A Stinebaugh 36% career 10-for-52 on dirt this meet (19%) ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R1: Cowboys Love Wine 2-1, R2: Tomorrows Dynasty 9-2, R3: Candy In My Arms 6-1, R4: Curls Favorite Jet 2-1 +8 more · Trainer R1: Cowboys Love Wine 2-1, R2: Tomorrows Dynasty 9-2, R3: Candy In My Arms 6-1, R4: Curls Favorite Jet 2-1 +8 more
    60D LAYOFF

    2nd last time, 1 length back, in a field of 9. Has moved up each time out, 74 to 89 to 92.

    PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
    WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 16d ago
    RECORD Ali Rivera from post 2 here: 7 wins, 22 top-3 in 46 rides · 17% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    8/7ALB2f DFutTrl100002nd/9 -1L922.2-1b LClosed outside;
    7/18ALB1.81818f DMSWWon/10893.8-1b LSpeed; drifted;handily
    6/26ALB1.81818f DFutTrl100005th/9 -¾L7435-1b LCame out start
  3. 3Artic JewelsJ. Olivas · R. WilsonOlivas · WilsonA92 87 75▲▲+11@trip 7512-1Fair 15-16%▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best92 87 75@trip 75A

    Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 75 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 92 87 75

    Jockey Jesus Olivas 21% career 3-for-24 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Renee Wilson 32% career
    Also today · Jockey R3: Walk Thru Monday 20-1, R4: Apolitical Cowgirl 20-1, R10: Coco B Train 20-1, R11: Herqlez 15-1 · Trainer R11: Herqlez 15-1, R14: Van Pelt 15-1

    Changes barns, from Clinton T Crawford to Renee Wilson. Class relief: maiden special weight last time, stakes nongraded today.

    PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
    WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 18d ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/6ALB1.59091f DMSW2nd/9 by nk921.9-1b LDueled; just missed
    8/7ALB2f DFutTrl100004th/10 -¾L8727-1b LEvenly;
    6/26ALB1.81818f DFutTrl100002nd/9 -1L7527-1b LChased; couldn't gain
  4. 4Agree N TellR. Ramirez · S. WoodRamirez · WoodB87 77@trip 7712-1Fair 15-17%—87 77@trip 77B2

    Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip 77 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 87 77

    Jockey Ricky Ramirez 33% career 7-for-53 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer S Trey Wood 28% career 4-for-28 on dirt this meet (14%)
    Also today · Jockey R3: Fearless Cowboy 7-2, R7: Allikat Ttu 30-1, R8: A Noble Cowgirl 30-1, R9: Cowgirl Eats Fire 4-1 +3 more · Trainer R1: Timeto Quit 30-1, R2: Rr Evil Jess 30-1, R3: Fearless Cowboy 7-2, R4: Delightfully Sage 6-1 +11 more
    60D LAYOFF

    Finished 2nd in a 9-horse stakes race at ALB, beaten ½ length. 3rd of 6 at 1F on May 25, in :12.20.

    PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    WORKS Routine prep: 1 work in 30d, last 21d ago
    RECORD Ricky Ramirez from post 4 here: 4 wins, 9 top-3 in 17 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    8/7ALB2f DFutTrl100002nd/9 -½L872.4-1b LGame second;
    6/27ALB1.81818f DFutTrl100002nd/10 by nk7717-1b LClear path; 2nd best
  5. 5Bv So LongR. Cruz · J. Hernandez-MartinezCruz · Hernandez-MartinezC78 89 42▲+6↕15-1Fair 20-14%▲ Up +678 89 42 ↕C

    Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +6 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 42–89 · Last 3 figs 78 89 42

    Jockey Roman Cruz 33% career 2-for-6 on dirt this meet · Trainer Jose Hernandez-Martinez
    Also today · Jockey R14: Jt Midlife Crisis 1-1 · Trainer R14: Jt Midlife Crisis 1-1
    ★ FASTEST WORK

    A step up in company: stakes before, stakes nongraded today. The Jun 19 work, 1F in :11.60, was the best time at that distance that morning.

    PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 67d ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/14WRD1.59091f DsFutTrl50006th/8 -3¾L785.6-1b LBmpd st;no response
    7/18FMT1.59091f DCherokee S25k2nd/9 by hd896.1-1b LDueled;game;bested
    7/3FMT1.59091f DFutTrl50008th/8 -7½L420.9-1b LStumbled;no factor
  6. 6Cowboys FlyingN. Duran · M. Chavez-GutierrezDuran · Chavez-GutierrezA109 99 111▲+72-5Fair 1-150%▲ Up +7109 99 111A1

    Card model 50% · Fair odds 1-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +7 · Last 3 figs 109 99 111

    Jockey Nestor Duran 40% career 1-for-19 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer Marco Adair Chavez-Gutierrez 14% career
    Also today · Jockey R3: Ohtani 30-1, R9: Cajuns 123 6-5, R10: Encinas Legacy 20-1, R12: Sleepy Chilitos 6-5
    WON LAST

    Tops the field on speed figures, an 111 against 94 for the next best. 6 wins from 6 starts at this distance.

    PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
    SHARP LAST OUT Chart comment from the last start: Off slow; drew off; best.
    WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 17d back
    RECORD Nestor Duran from post 6 here: 3 wins, 4 top-3 in 19 rides · 15% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/7ALB2f DAllAmFutG1 G1Won/81090.3-1bOff slow;drew off;best
    8/7ALB2f DFutTrl10000Won/10990.1-1bBlew em away;
    7/25RET1.59091f DsTQHAFutRG1 G1Won/101110.3-1bImpressive domination
  7. 7PilatusS. Becerra Jr. · R. RamirezBecerra Jr. · RamirezC7630-1Fair 50-12%—76C

    Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 76

    Jockey Sergio Jr Becerra 1-for-6 on dirt this meet · Trainer Raul Ramirez 32% career 4-for-23 on dirt this meet (17%)
    Also today · Jockey R4: Pyc Dollars Cowboy 5-2 · Trainer R3: Bolted 15-1, R4: Pyc Dollars Cowboy 5-2, R10: Hes Your Daddy 3-1, R11: Jess Send Her 6-1
    60D LAYOFF

    Raul Ramirez takes over the training from Marco A Flores. Off 83 days since the last start.

    PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 31d back)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    8/8ALB2f DFutTrl100005th/9 -2¾L7633-1b LNo rally;
  8. 8Panther PursuitF. Calderon · K. ReedCalderon · ReedC81 79 85►@trip 8120-1Fair 20-15%► Steady81 79 85@trip 81C

    Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 81 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 79 85

    Jockey Francisco Calderon 37% career 8-for-41 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Kash Reed 31% career ★ 7-for-28 on dirt this meet (25%), #3 of 67 ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R1: Fall Classic 8-5, R2: Unblemished V 5-2, R3: Konklusiv 2-1, R4: Staggeringcowboy 7-2 +9 more · Trainer R2: Flight History 12-1, R5: Im Significant 5-1, R8: Sweet Pursuit 7-2, R9: King Baja 20-1 +3 more

    Worked 1F in :12.60 on Sep 1, 2nd of 25 at the distance. Class relief: allowance last time, stakes nongraded today.

    PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 59d ago
    RECORD Francisco Calderon from post 8 here: 8 wins, 18 top-3 in 32 rides · 19% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/10LS1.81818f DAlw n1x4th/9 -2½L813.8-1b LEvenly paced
    4/3RP1½f DsFutTrl150003rd/8 -1½L791.4-1b LBobbld brk;rallied
    3/19RP1.36364f DMSWWon/10854.4-1b LLed; held gamely
  9. 9Zendeya★LSJ. Herbert · G. GonzalezHerbert · GonzalezC79 74 64▲+5@trip 9830-1Fair 20-14%▲ Up +579 74 64@trip 98C★ Best at the trip 98LS

    Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #4 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +5 · Best fig at today's trip 98 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 79 74 64

    ★ Best at the trip 98LS

    Longshot read: 30-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 4% against a line of 2%. A read, not a bet.

    Jockey Jose R Herbert 32% career 1-for-29 on dirt this meet (3%) · Trainer Gilberto Gonzalez 31% career 1-for-32 on dirt this meet (3%)
    Also today · Jockey R4: Norwalk 20-1 · Trainer R4: Norwalk 20-1, R10: Cyber Intelligence 12-1, R11: Bullet Prooff 30-1

    Figures are climbing: 64, 74, 79 over its last three. Class relief: allowance last time, stakes nongraded today.

    PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 249d back)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/10LS1.81818f DAlw n1x6th/9 -3¾L7923-1b LNo rally
    9/19LS1.81818f DFutTrl100008th/10 -4¾L7415-1b LBrk out;bmp;no rally
    8/7RET1.59091f DFutTrl100008th/10 -2¼L6411-1b LNo menace
  10. 10Sugars FlyingG. Pina · W. GarciaPina · GarciaB8420-1Fair 20-14%—84B

    Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 84

    Jockey Garcia Rosendo E Pina 32% career 3-for-51 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Wendy Alejandra Garcia 32% career 1-for-25 on dirt this meet (4%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: Gjr Eaglet 30-1, R9: Raptor Stone 7-2, R13: Cheyenne Stone 30-1, R14: Talego Stone 20-1 · Trainer R9: Raptor Stone 7-2, R13: Cheyenne Stone 30-1, R14: Talego Stone 20-1

    Jockey switch: Juan Francisco Jr Garcia last out, Garcia Rosendo E Pina today. Last out was 4th, 1¾ lengths behind the winner, in a 10-horse maiden special weight race at LS.

    PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 50 days ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/25LS1½f DsMdSpWt4th/10 -1¾L844.2-1b LDrift out;imprvd
    8/7RET1.59091f DFutTrl10000DNF—3.3-1b LPropped; lost rider

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks
1 2 3
Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair
The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?
The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72
Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕
≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★
Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips
Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
FINISHSTART400 YARDS · DIRT · mainstraight course

LONE STAR PARK · RACE 6

UPCOMING

Trial

Field
10 runners
Purse
$10,000
Post
8:15 PM ET
Pace
Pace Vacuum
Card model top pick
#6 · 50%

Stakes, for 2-year-olds.

Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 400 Yards: 19.2

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #6 Cowboys Flying (a tactical type, M/L 2-5). Recent figures: 109 · 99 · 111. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #4 Agree N Tell at 12-1. Use #1 Dangerous Leigh in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

  • Market favourite #6 COWBOYS FLYING (2-5) — our number agrees.
  • #6 COWBOYS FLYING — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (51.4% to their 54.1%).
  • #2 MR CARTEL FAVORITE — our #5 number, about right at the windows (12.5% to their 12.6%).
  • #4 AGREE N TELL — our #2 number, a price play — we're at 6.4%, the board 5.8%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

  • Longshot the model rates above its line: #9 ZENDEYA (30-1) — our fair 3.1% is above the morning line's 2.4%; supported by: last out: "No rally" — finished with authority
Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Dangerous Leigh, #2 Mr Cartel Favorite, #3 Artic Jewels.

Lead
none
Press
none
Stalk
none
Close
none
No style yet
1Dangerous Leigh2Mr Cartel Favorite3Artic Jewels4Agree N Tell5Bv So Long6Cowboys Flying7Pilatus8Panther Pursuit9Zendeya10Sugars Flying

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

1
Dangerous Leigh
0
2
Mr Cartel Favorite
0
3
Artic Jewels
0
4
Agree N Tell
0
5
Bv So Long
0
6
Cowboys Flying
0
7
Pilatus
0
8
Panther Pursuit
0
9
Zendeya
0
10
Sugars Flying
0
Bet types offeredwager menu

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

EXACTA / $.50 TRIFECTA / $.10 SUPERFECTA / DAILY DOUBLE

$.50 PICK 3 (RACES 6-7-8) / $.50 PICK 4 (RACES 6-7-8-9)

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