R7 Lone Star Park · Trial

8:41 PM ET · 400 Yards Dirt · $10,000 · 9 runners8:41 PM · 1.8f Dirt · 9 runners

Upcoming $10K · Trial

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #5 Mister Sinatra (9-2) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 91 from 2 tries. Not in our top three.

1CoronainthefastlanesLSB. Candanosa · J. JoinerCandanosa · JoinerB87 73 76▲▲+12@trip 7620-1Fair 20-14%▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best87 73 76@trip 76BLS

Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 76 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 87 73 76

Longshot read: 20-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 4% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Bryan Candanosa 36% career 3-for-18 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Justin W Joiner 32% career ★ 5-for-21 on dirt this meet (24%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Shiny Favorite 20-1, R2: Flight History 12-1, R5: Gunsmoke 123 15-1, R12: Ab Inferno 3-1 +3 more · Trainer R1: My Special Blood 30-1, R2: The Cowboys A Legend 12-1, R3: Favorite Power Cc 30-1, R4: Staggeringcowboy 7-2 +6 more

WON LAST

Won last out in a 10-horse maiden special weight race at LS. Was running in maiden special weight; today's stakes nongraded is an easier level on paper.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 57 days ago

RECORD Bryan Candanosa from post 1 here: 6 wins, 15 top-3 in 30 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/16	LS	1.59091f D	MSW	Won/10	87	1.8-1	b L	Kept on;drw off
9/19	LS	1.81818f D	FutTrl10000	7th/9 -5L	73	31-1	b L	Stmbld in;bmp;angl out
7/18	ALB	1.81818f D	MSW	8th/10 -2¾L	76	26-1	b L	Bore in brk; no menace

2Dk Bonita JessV. Urieta Jr. · M. PizanaUrieta Jr. · PizanaB81 90 94▼▼-134-1Fair 7-222%▼▼ Big drop -1381 90 94B1

Card model 22% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #1 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -13 · Last 3 figs 81 90 94

Jockey Victor Manuel Jr Urieta 18-for-99 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Miguel Pizana 24% career 2-for-2 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R3: Jc Canelo 5-2, R8: A Fortunate Cowboy 5-2, R9: Cowgirl Lyndi G 30-1, R13: Nena C 9-2 +1 more · Trainer R8: A Fortunate Cowboy 5-2, R13: Nena C 9-2

◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE60D LAYOFF

Changes barns, from Marco Adair Chavez-Gutierrez to Miguel Pizana. Figures have slipped: 94, 90, 81 over its last three.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Bumped start), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 13d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/8	ALB	2f D	FutTrl10000	5th/10 -2¼L	81	0.8-1	b	Bumped start;
6/13	HOU	1.59091f D	SmHouFutG2 G2	Won/10	90	2.2-1	b	Dueled; driving finish
5/23	HOU	1.59091f D	FutTrl10000	Won/9 by hd	94	1.3-1	b	Dueled; driving finish

3Lethal WindF. Zamora · W. GilesZamora · GilesA98 87 79▲▲+8↕@trip 799-5Fair 4-121%▲▲ Big jump +898 87 79 ↕@trip 79A

Card model 21% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 79–103 · Best fig at today's trip 79 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 98 87 79

Jockey Francisco Zamora 14% career 1-for-1 on dirt this meet · Trainer Wesley T Giles 33% career 2-for-4 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R3: Kj Macho Man 12-1, R11: Kj Renegade 8-1 · Trainer R1: Abouta Get Western 5-1, R3: Kj Macho Man 12-1, R4: Kj Casanova Cowboy 30-1, R10: Kj Bigbadleroybrown 8-1 +3 more

WON LAST

Owns the highest recent figure here at 103. Last start was a win, in a 10-horse maiden special weight race at LS at 0.7-1.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

SHARP LAST OUT Chart comment from the last start: Drew clear.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 208 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	LS	1.59091f D	MSW	Won/10	98	0.7-1	b L	Drew clear
8/8	ALB	2f D	FutTrl10000	4th/9 -2L	87	0.6-1	b L	Sluggish start
6/26	ALB	1.81818f D	FutTrl10000	3rd/8 by nk	79	0.3-1	b L	Broke in; steady bid

4Coronas First CowboyL. Vivanco · M. JungersVivanco · JungersA86 94 92▼-4@trip 862-1Fair 3-124%▼ Down -486 94 92@trip 86A2

Card model 24% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -4 · Best fig at today's trip 86 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 86 94 92

Jockey Luis L Vivanco 36% career 10-for-70 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Marc E Jungers 32% career ★ 11-for-55 on dirt this meet (20%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Abouta Get Western 5-1, R2: Mondays Best 20-1, R9: The Real Mvp Z 15-1, R10: Pitching Woo 20-1 +2 more · Trainer R1: Y It Earp 10-1, R2: Mondays Best 20-1, R13: Karo Kiss 30-1, R15: Kj Money Maker 20-1

5 wins from 9 starts at this distance. Last start: 2nd in a 10-horse stakes race at LS.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 254d back)

RECORD Luis L Vivanco from post 4 here: 5 wins, 17 top-3 in 40 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/19	LS	1.81818f D	FutTrl10000	2nd/10	86	1.5-1	b L	Nailed at wire
8/22	RET	1.59091f D	rTQSirFuRG2 G2	2nd/8 -2½L	94	3.6-1	b L	Bid; up for place
8/7	RET	1.59091f D	FutTrl10000	Won/10 by hd	92	0.7-1	b L	Strong driving finish

5Mister Sinatra★A. Rivera · Z. StinebaughRivera · StinebaughA89 82 77▲+6@trip 919-2Fair 7-112%▲ Up +689 82 77@trip 91A★ Best at the trip 91

Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +6 · Best fig at today's trip 91 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 89 82 77

★ Best at the trip 91

Jockey Ali Rivera 34% career 9-for-80 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Zackary Stinebaugh 36% career 0-for-16 on dirt this meet (0%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Cowboys Love Wine 2-1, R2: Tomorrows Dynasty 9-2, R3: Candy In My Arms 6-1, R4: Curls Favorite Jet 2-1 +8 more · Trainer R1: Gjr Eaglet 30-1, R3: Dracula 20-1, R4: Eagle On The Prey 15-1, R10: Caliente Cowboy 123 10-1 +2 more

Class relief: allowance last time, stakes nongraded today. Has moved up each time out, 77 to 82 to 89.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 58d ago

RECORD Ali Rivera from post 5 here: 7 wins, 24 top-3 in 46 rides · 17% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	LS	1.59091f D	Alw nc	3rd/8 -1L	89	3.6-1	b L	Brk in;bmp;need more
9/19	LS	1.81818f D	FutTrl10000	4th/9 -2L	82	4.4-1	b L	Bmp st;need more
8/7	RET	1.59091f D	FutTrl10000	7th/10 -2L	77	2.1-1	b L	No menace

6Your Flying DreamsG. Linares · J. StinebaughLinares · StinebaughC80 71 70▲+5@trip 7030-1Fair 30-13%▲ Up +580 71 70@trip 70C

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +5 · Best fig at today's trip 70 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 71 70

Jockey Gilberto Linares 33% career 8-for-48 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer John A Stinebaugh 36% career 10-for-52 on dirt this meet (19%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Rocking Cowboy 6-1, R3: Dracula 20-1, R4: Eagle On The Prey 15-1, R8: Get Aggressive 5-1 +4 more · Trainer R1: Cowboys Love Wine 2-1, R2: Tomorrows Dynasty 9-2, R3: Candy In My Arms 6-1, R4: Curls Favorite Jet 2-1 +8 more

Figures are climbing: 70, 71, 80 over its last three. Worked 1F in :12.80 on May 2, 3rd of 6 at the distance.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS Routine prep: 0 works in 30d, last 37d ago

RECORD Gilberto Linares from post 6 here: 3 wins, 5 top-3 in 17 rides · 15% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/16	LS	1.59091f D	MSW	3rd/10 -2L	80	5.5-1	b L	Late gain
8/7	ALB	2f D	FutTrl10000	8th/10 -5¼L	71	47-1	b L	Faded; vanned off
6/27	ALB	1.81818f D	FutTrl10000	7th/10 -3¼L	70	11-1	b L	Veerd in start;bore in

7Irish LancerF. Calderon · S. GonzalesCalderon · GonzalesC80 81@trip 8120-1Fair 30-14%—80 81@trip 81C
Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Best fig at today's trip 81 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 81
Jockey Francisco Calderon 37% career 8-for-41 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Sebastian Gonzales 27% career
Also today · Jockey R1: Fall Classic 8-5, R2: Unblemished V 5-2, R3: Konklusiv 2-1, R4: Staggeringcowboy 7-2 +9 more · Trainer R1: Fall Classic 8-5, R15: Lawman 123 20-1
60D LAYOFF
New trainer: Rodolfo G Valles had it last time, Sebastian Gonzales now. Off 83 days since the last start.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 17d back
RECORD Francisco Calderon from post 7 here: 3 wins, 12 top-3 in 31 rides · 19% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
8/8 ALB 2f D FutTrl10000 7th/8 -3L 80 6.8-1 b L Faded;
6/27 ALB 1.81818f D FutTrl10000 4th/10 -1¾L 81 3.5-1 b L Brushed; steady bid

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/8	ALB	2f D	FutTrl10000	7th/8 -3L	80	6.8-1	b L	Faded;
6/27	ALB	1.81818f D	FutTrl10000	4th/10 -1¾L	81	3.5-1	b L	Brushed; steady bid

8Allikat TtuR. Ramirez · S. WoodRamirez · WoodC78 69 76►@trip 6930-1Fair 30-13%► Steady78 69 76@trip 69C

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 69 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 78 69 76

Jockey Ricky Ramirez 33% career 7-for-53 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer S Trey Wood 28% career 4-for-28 on dirt this meet (14%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Fearless Cowboy 7-2, R6: Agree N Tell 12-1, R8: A Noble Cowgirl 30-1, R9: Cowgirl Eats Fire 4-1 +3 more · Trainer R1: Timeto Quit 30-1, R2: Rr Evil Jess 30-1, R3: Fearless Cowboy 7-2, R4: Delightfully Sage 6-1 +11 more

60D LAYOFF

Drops from maiden special weight to stakes nongraded. 0 for 5 at today's distance.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 20d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/21	ALB	1.59091f D	MSW	6th/10 -2½L	78	5.2-1	b L	Bmp brk;outkicked
6/27	ALB	1.81818f D	FutTrl10000	7th/10 -3¼L	69	23-1	b L	Veered out start
5/8	RP	1.59091f D	FutTrl15000	2nd/8 -½L	76	2.4-1	b L	Best kick late;gaining

9ReddingtenR. Huerta · J. VazquezHuerta · VazquezB91 84 74▲▲+12@trip 7415-1Fair 15-16%▲▲ Big jump +1291 84 74@trip 74B3

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · Best fig at today's trip 74 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 91 84 74

Jockey Roman Armando Huerta 14% career 2-for-20 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Juan L Vazquez 30% career 2-for-6 on dirt this meet

Also today · Trainer R1: Ratically Inspyred 20-1, R3: Konklusiv 2-1, R15: Mounte Rushmore 20-1

WON LAST

Winner of an 8-horse maiden special weight race at LS last time. Has moved up each time out, 74 to 84 to 91.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 99d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/18	LS	1½f D	MSW	Won/8	91	0.7-1	b L	Brk sharp;held clear
8/8	ALB	2f D	FutTrl10000	3rd/10 -1L	84	6.5-1	b L	Good try;
6/27	ALB	1.81818f D	FutTrl10000	6th/10 -2¼L	74	4.5-1	b L	Reared start; bumped

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

LONE STAR PARK · RACE 7

UPCOMING

Trial

Field

9 runners

Purse

$10,000

Post

8:41 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#2 · 22%

Stakes, for 2-year-olds.

Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 400 Yards: 19.2

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #2 Dk Bonita Jess (a tactical type, M/L 4-1). Recent figures: 81 · 90 · 94. Backup is #4 Coronas First Cowboy at 2-1. Use #9 Reddingten in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #3 LETHAL WIND (9-5) — our number has it ranked #5.
#3 LETHAL WIND — our #5 number, about right at the windows (25.7% to their 27.6%).
#4 CORONAS FIRST COWBOY — our #2 number, about right at the windows (25.1% to their 25.7%).
#2 DK BONITA JESS — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (17.6% to their 15.4%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Coronainthefastlanes, #2 Dk Bonita Jess, #3 Lethal Wind.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Coronainthefastlanes2Dk Bonita Jess3Lethal Wind4Coronas First Cowboy5Mister Sinatra6Your Flying Dreams7Irish Lancer8Allikat Ttu9Reddingten

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Coronainthefastlanes

Dk Bonita Jess

Lethal Wind

Coronas First Cowboy

Mister Sinatra

Your Flying Dreams

Irish Lancer

Allikat Ttu

Reddingten

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Bet types

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$.50 PICK 3 (RACES 7-8-9)

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