Our top three by win chance, with the morning line beside each horse. Confidence = our top-rated horse's win chance: Strong 35%+, Medium 25-35%, Wide open under 25%. ▲/▼ angles, ★ best figure at the trip, LS = longshot read (8-1+ on the line, model rates it higher). Tap a race number for the full field and a name for the horse's page. These are notes from the past performances, not proven to beat the odds; the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top pick. Analysis only.
● Live race intelligence · code LS
Lone Star Park
Friday, October 30, 2026.
Races
15
on the card
Feature
R1
Trial · $10K
First post
6:05 PM
ET · race 1
Runners
144
avg field 10
● Track conditions today
Lone Star Park — today's signals
Surface read
±2.50s SWINGY
Surface swings hard day to day — raw final times mislead. This is where our daily track-variant correction matters most when comparing figures.
day-to-day swing · 65 race-days sampled
Weather
73° Slight Chance Rain Showers
Clean conditions — surface should run true to the listed condition. No weather adjustment to the model read.
Carryover pool
None today
No mandatory or jackpot carryover detected at this track. Standard pools today.
Do the model's percentages hold up?
Mostly
Across finished races the model's win chances mostly match how often its picks win, but its most confident picks win a few points less than it says. The morning-line favourite still wins more often than the model's top pick.
checked against 2,848 finished races · as of 2026-06-06
TRACK BIAS · WIN % BY POST
Best post #3 (14%) · Rail helps
Rail/inside bias — posts 1-3 win 12% vs 7% outside. Bars show each post’s win rate vs the track average over 18,250 starts.
Where the model is most sure
Three highest model win %.
The three races where the model's top pick has its highest win chance, with the morning line beside it. Most of these are the favourite too. Tap for the full race.
Every Daily Double and Pick 3/4/5/6 on today's card, with the model's top pick in each leg,
or its top two or three when the leg is close. A Pick N is one pari-mutuel pool: you need the winner of every leg, and the pool is split among the tickets that have them all.
This is analysis, not a ticket or a staking plan.
Pick 3Races 1–3 · $.50 min
R1#10 Fall ClassicTop pick
R2#5 Limites Sin B · #7 Unblemished V · #9 Tomorrows DynastyClose: top 3
R3#2 KonklusivTop pick
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 3Races 2–4 · $.50 min
R2#5 Limites Sin B · #7 Unblemished V · #9 Tomorrows DynastyClose: top 3
R3#2 KonklusivTop pick
R4#10 Pyc Dollars Cowboy · #2 Cowboy FavoriteClose: top 2
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 4Races 2–5 · $.50 min
R2#5 Limites Sin B · #7 Unblemished V · #9 Tomorrows DynastyClose: top 3
R3#2 KonklusivTop pick
R4#10 Pyc Dollars Cowboy · #2 Cowboy FavoriteClose: top 2
R5#5 Expensive Toro · #9 Marvelous MarvClose: top 2
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 3Races 3–5 · $.50 min
R3#2 KonklusivTop pick
R4#10 Pyc Dollars Cowboy · #2 Cowboy FavoriteClose: top 2
R5#5 Expensive Toro · #9 Marvelous MarvClose: top 2
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 3Races 4–6 · $.50 min
R4#10 Pyc Dollars Cowboy · #2 Cowboy FavoriteClose: top 2
R5#5 Expensive Toro · #9 Marvelous MarvClose: top 2
R6#6 Cowboys FlyingTop pick
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 3Races 5–7 · $.50 min
R5#5 Expensive Toro · #9 Marvelous MarvClose: top 2
R6#6 Cowboys FlyingTop pick
R7#2 Dk Bonita JessTop pick
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 3Races 6–8 · $.50 min
R6#6 Cowboys FlyingTop pick
R7#2 Dk Bonita JessTop pick
R8#7 A Fortunate CowboyTop pick
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 4Races 6–9 · $.50 min
R6#6 Cowboys FlyingTop pick
R7#2 Dk Bonita JessTop pick
R8#7 A Fortunate CowboyTop pick
R9#8 Cajuns 123 · #7 Cowgirl Eats Fire · #6 Raptor StoneClose: top 3
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 3Races 7–9 · $.50 min
R7#2 Dk Bonita JessTop pick
R8#7 A Fortunate CowboyTop pick
R9#8 Cajuns 123 · #7 Cowgirl Eats Fire · #6 Raptor StoneClose: top 3
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 3Races 8–10 · $.50 min
R8#7 A Fortunate CowboyTop pick
R9#8 Cajuns 123 · #7 Cowgirl Eats Fire · #6 Raptor StoneClose: top 3
R10#5 Flying JamesonTop pick
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 3Races 9–11 · $.50 min
R9#8 Cajuns 123 · #7 Cowgirl Eats Fire · #6 Raptor StoneClose: top 3
R10#5 Flying JamesonTop pick
R11#6 Special To MiTop pick
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 3Races 10–12 · $.50 min
R10#5 Flying JamesonTop pick
R11#6 Special To MiTop pick
R12#3 Sleepy ChilitosTop pick
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 6Races 10–15 · $.50 min
R10#5 Flying JamesonTop pick
R11#6 Special To MiTop pick
R12#3 Sleepy ChilitosTop pick
R13#5 El Huracano VTop pick
R14#1 Jt Midlife CrisisTop pick
R15#3 Tell A ScoutTop pick
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 3Races 11–13 · $.50 min
R11#6 Special To MiTop pick
R12#3 Sleepy ChilitosTop pick
R13#5 El Huracano VTop pick
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 5Races 11–15 · $.50 min
R11#6 Special To MiTop pick
R12#3 Sleepy ChilitosTop pick
R13#5 El Huracano VTop pick
R14#1 Jt Midlife CrisisTop pick
R15#3 Tell A ScoutTop pick
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 3Races 12–14 · $.50 min
R12#3 Sleepy ChilitosTop pick
R13#5 El Huracano VTop pick
R14#1 Jt Midlife CrisisTop pick
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 4Races 12–15 · $.50 min
R12#3 Sleepy ChilitosTop pick
R13#5 El Huracano VTop pick
R14#1 Jt Midlife CrisisTop pick
R15#3 Tell A ScoutTop pick
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 3Races 13–15 · $.50 min
R13#5 El Huracano VTop pick
R14#1 Jt Midlife CrisisTop pick
R15#3 Tell A ScoutTop pick
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Today's races
Race-by-race with archetype.
Each race is tagged with pace archetype (TACTICAL · SPEED DUEL · LONE SPEED · CLOSERS' RACE · PACE VACUUM · PRESSED PACE). Click any row for the full Verdict, Pace Shape, Full Field, Workouts, and Wagers.
For information only — not financial or wagering advice. Must be 21+ to wager where required by law. If gambling is affecting you or someone you know, help is available.