Pick sheet

Race 103:51 PM CasaCreedB175k

7F · Turf · 16 entered. Our model's top pick, Fond Farewell, is 23% to win (morning line implies 13%). Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #6 Fond Farewell ML 5-1 Fair 7-2 Model #1 ▲ Up +7 · career best ≡ Steady 86–95 ▲ Last fig 95 at/above par 92 Lasix off

Jockey F. Prat · Trainer W. Walden · KEE 1: 1-0-0 · Dist 1: 1-0-0 · best fig at 7f turf 95 · 43 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/19	BEL	7f T	OC 80k n2x	Won/7	95	2.8-1	b L	Brushed st; drew clear
3/5	TP	6f D	OC 25k n1x	Won/7 by 3½	86	1.9-1	b L	Step slw st;up in time
2/5	TP	6f D	OC 25k n1x	2nd/7 -1½L	90	2.1-1	b L	3-4w trn;bmpd str;mssd

Case: Last out won in the OC80000n2x at BEL. Last Brisnet figures 95-86-90. Best at today's distance 95. 1-for-1 at the distance. 1-for-1 at Belmont Park. W. Walden / F. Prat.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #12 Intellect ML 3-1 Fair 4-1 Model #2 ► Steady ▲ Last fig 96 at/above par 92

Jockey M. Franco · Trainer C. Brown · KEE 1: 0-1-0 · Dist 4: 2-2-0 · 30 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	BEL	1m T	ASchiller Stk	2nd/9 -¾L	96	2.2-1		Nudge foe3/16;bid1/8
8/14	SAR	1m T	OC 80k n2x	Won/7	102	1.9-1	L	2p1st;2-4p2nd;rally5p
7/11	SAR	1m T	OC 80k n2x	2nd/9 -3L	92	2.9-1	L	Ins1st;2-3p2nd;6p1/4

Case: Last out 2nd in the ASchillerL175k at BEL. Last Brisnet figures 96-102-92. 2-for-4 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Belmont Park. C. Brown / M. Franco.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Use #4 Capitol Hill ML 6-1 Fair 8-1 Model #3 ▲ Up +4 ≡ Steady 87–95 ▲ Last fig 95 at/above par 92 Last out 3rd in the ASchillerL175k at BEL. Last Brisnet figures 95-93-87. 0-for-1 at Belmont Park. W. Mott / J. Alvarado. Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey J. Alvarado · Trainer W. Mott · KEE 1: 0-0-1 · 30 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	BEL	1m T	ASchiller Stk	3rd/9 -1¼L	95	3.6-1	b	Bmp brk;ins trn;gained
8/27	SAR	1m T	OC 110k b	Won/6 by 1½	93	1.2-1	b L	Ins-2p;4p1/4;rallied
8/8	SAR	1m T	4strdav G1	6th/6 -4½L	87	7.7-1	b	6w upper; empty

Longshot #2 We're in Trouble ML 10-1 Fair 10-1 Model #5 ▼ Down -5 ≡ Steady 82–89

Jockey J. Castellano · Trainer M. McCarthy · 57 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/5	KD	6f T	TrfSprnt G2	4th/11 -2½L	82	43-1	b	Ins;shift out;mssd 3rd
7/5	SAR	5½f T	HarvyPack Stk	4th/8 -4½L	86	11-1	b	Mvd in 1/2;2-3p;5p1/4
5/28	CD	5½f T	OC 80k n2x	Won/7 by 2½	87	6.0-1	b L	Ins;rally;late bid;up

Case: Last out 4th/11 -2½L in the TrfSprnt-G2 at KD. Last Brisnet figures 82-86-87. M. McCarthy / J. Castellano.

Knock: Never raced at Belmont Park.

Narrowing the field: A #4, #6, #12 · B #5, #8, #9 · C #1, #2, #3, #7, #10, #11, #13, #14, #15, #16

Angles: #1 Rider upgrade (34% vs 26%) cutting back to a sprint · #4 Last fig 95 at/above par 92 · #6 Last fig 95 at/above par 92 · #9 Last fig 98 at/above par 92 · #12 Last fig 96 at/above par 92 · #13 Last fig 93 at/above par 92

R10 Belmont Park · Casa Creed Stakes

3:51 PM ET · 7 Furlongs Turf · $175,000 · 14 runners (2 out)3:51 PM · 7f Turf · 14 runners (2 out)

Official $175K · Casa Creed Stakes

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Bonus Move▲Ran 13thP. Lopez · M. HennigLopez · HennigC81 76 92►30-1Fair 50-12%► Steady81 76 92C▲ Rider upgrade (34% vs 26%) cutting back to a sprint

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #14 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 81 76 92

▲ Rider upgrade (34% vs 26%) cutting back to a sprint

Jockey Pascacio Lopez 36% career 0-for-19 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Mark Hennig 25% career 1-for-11 on turf this meet (9%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Subrogate 6-1, R5: First Site 12-1, R6: Two Ducks 10-1, R7: Mid Summer 6-1 +2 more

60D LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Raises its level, optional claiming last time and stakes nongraded now. Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power.

PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 1)

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 4 works in 30d, last 8d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/27	SAR	1m T	OC 110k b	5th/6 -4L	81	15-1	L	Fast pace inside;tired
8/8	MTH	1 1/16 T	OceanprtB100k	6th/6 -2¼L	76	20-1		Set pace; tired
6/6	SAR	1 1/16 T	OC 80k b	Won/6	92	14-1	L	Stumbled st; held game

2We're in TroubleLSRan 9thJ. Castellano · M. McCarthyCastellano · McCarthyC82 86 87▼-5≡10-1Fair 10-19%▼ Down -582 86 87 ≡CLS

Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -5 · ≡ Steady figures 82–89 · Last 3 figs 82 86 87

Longshot read: 10-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 9% against a line of 6%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey J J Castellano 30% career 11-for-65 on turf this meet (17%) · Trainer Michael W McCarthy 0-for-1 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R3: Comets Choice 6-1, R4: Epic Prayer 15-1, R5: Podkova 10-1, R6: Chips And Fish 7-2 +3 more

4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Purse drops from $1,750,000 to $175,000 against its last start. Last out was 4th, 2½ lengths behind the winner, in an 11-horse race at KD.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 4 works in 30d and the last 7d back

RECORD Chestnuts win 9% here vs 12% for all horses (237 starts)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/5	KD	6f T	TrfSprnt G2	4th/11 -2½L	82	43-1	b	Ins;shift out;mssd 3rd
7/5	SAR	5½f T	HarvyPack Stk	4th/8 -4½L	86	11-1	b	Mvd in 1/2;2-3p;5p1/4
5/28	CD	5½f T	OC 80k n2x	Won/7 by 2½	87	6.0-1	b L	Ins;rally;late bid;up

3Piper's FactorRan 8thR. Maragh · K. VassilievaMaragh · VassilievaC90 94 94▼-4≡@trip 8920-1Fair 50-12%▼ Down -490 94 94 ≡@trip 89C

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #13 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -4 · ≡ Steady figures 90–94 · Best fig at today's trip 89 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 90 94 94

Jockey Rajiv Maragh 27% career 0-for-21 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Katerina Vassilieva 31% career

Also today · Jockey R3: Watergate 30-1, R5: Rags To Roses 30-1

4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORK

Switches from dirt to turf. 4th last time, 4½ lengths back, in a field of 8.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Brk out; plugged away), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Oct 25; 4 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/12	WO	7f D	Vigil G3	4th/8 -4½L	90	1.8-1	L	Brk out;plugged away
8/15	WO	1m T	KngEdwd G2	2nd/6	94	4.8-1	L	Off rail;fought;missed
7/19	WO	7½f T	ConghtCp G2	4th/8 -2L	94	2.9-1	L	3-4w;bmpd 3/16;flatten

4Capitol Hill▲Ran 1stJ. Alvarado · W. MottAlvarado · MottA95 93 87▲+4≡6-1Fair 8-110%▲ Up +495 93 87 ≡A▲ Last fig 95 at/above par 923

Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +4 · ≡ Steady figures 87–95 · Last 3 figs 95 93 87

▲ Last fig 95 at/above par 92

Jockey Junior Alvarado 34% career 1-for-20 on turf this meet (5%) · Trainer William I Mott 34% career 0-for-34 on turf this meet (0%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Sconset Bluff 8-1, R5: Claim The Throne 4-1, R7: Cozy Rosie 15-1, R8: Snowyte 4-1 +3 more · Trainer R1: Hold'em 15-1, R1: Sconset Bluff 8-1, R5: Claim The Throne 4-1, R9: Bendoog 4-1 +3 more

Figures are climbing: 87, 93, 95 over its last three. Shortens up to 7 furlongs after going a mile.

EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 2 works in 30d, last 7d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	BEL	1m T	ASchiller Stk	3rd/9 -1¼L	95	3.6-1	b	Bmp brk;ins trn;gained
8/27	SAR	1m T	OC 110k b	Won/6 by 1½	93	1.2-1	b L	Ins-2p;4p1/4;rallied
8/8	SAR	1m T	4strdav G1	6th/6 -4½L	87	7.7-1	b	6w upper; empty

5AlogonRan 11thF. Boyce · E. AllardBoyce · AllardB91 92 87►≡10-1Fair 20-15%► Steady91 92 87 ≡B

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 87–92 · Last 3 figs 91 92 87

Jockey Forest Boyce 32% career 0-for-1 on turf this meet · Trainer Edward T Allard 33% career 0-for-4 on turf this meet

Stretches out from 6 furlongs to 7 furlongs. A 96 top number against a 92 par, so it fits the level.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS Routine prep: 2 works in 30d, last 5d ago

RECORD Chestnuts win 9% here vs 12% for all horses (237 starts)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/1	BEL	6f T	BELTfSpr G3	4th/10 -1½L	91	6.7-1	Chased 2p; mild kick
9/12	LRL	6f T	LrlDashB100k	Won/7 by ½	92	6.3-1	Snuck thru ins;rdn out
8/1	CNL	5½f T	VanClief Stk	7th/9 -3¼L	87	3.6-1	4p1/4;7p upr;outkicked

6Fond Farewell▲Ran 2ndF. Prat · W. WaldenPrat · WaldenA95 86 90▲+7≡@trip 955-1Fair 7-222%▲ Up +7 · career best95 86 90 ≡@trip 95A▲ Last fig 95 at/above par 921

Card model 22% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +7 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 86–95 · Best fig at today's trip 95 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 95 86 90

▲ Last fig 95 at/above par 92

Jockey Flavien Prat 40% career 12-for-62 on turf this meet (19%), #3 of 28 · Trainer William Walden 34% career 2-for-4 on turf this meet ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Captivated 5-2, R2: Commuted 2-1, R3: Build Or Buy 4-1, R4: Miracle Morrow 8-1 +6 more

CLASS UP4 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LAST

Won last out in a 7-horse optional claiming race at BEL. A step up in company: optional claiming before, stakes nongraded today.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

SHARP LAST OUT Last time the chart read: Brushed st; drew clear.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 4 works in 30d, last 9d ago

RECORD Flavien Prat from post 6 here: 6 wins, 12 top-3 in 19 rides · 22% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/19	BEL	7f T	OC 80k n2x	Won/7	95	2.8-1	b L	Brushed st; drew clear
3/5	TP	6f D	OC 25k n1x	Won/7 by 3½	86	1.9-1	b L	Step slw st;up in time
2/5	TP	6f D	OC 25k n1x	2nd/7 -1½L	90	2.1-1	b L	3-4w trn;bmpd str;mssd

7GiocosoRan 3rdJ. Lezcano · J. DesormeauxLezcano · DesormeauxC79 95 98▼▼-10↕10-1Fair 12-18%▼▼ Big drop -1079 95 98 ↕C

Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -10 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 74–98 · Last 3 figs 79 95 98

Jockey Jose Lezcano 33% career 7-for-88 on turf this meet (8%) · Trainer J Keith Desormeaux 29% career

Also today · Jockey R1: Hold'em 15-1, R3: Queen's Corner 10-1, R4: Howard's Hope 7-2, R6: Eye On The Ball 8-1 +2 more

Figure of 98 on the record sits above the 92 par. Trending the wrong way on speed, 98 to 95 to 79.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 15d ago

RECORD Jose Lezcano from post 7 here: 2 wins, 7 top-3 in 17 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/7	KD	1m T	MntMlnIv G3	9th/10 -3½L	79	16-1		Pressed 2-3w;faded
8/2	ELP	1 1/16 T	GrnRvrIsl Stk	3rd/12 -2¾L	95	25-1		Pinchd st;7p3/16;rally
6/27	LS	1⅛m T	TXTrfClscB250k	Won/6	98	2.7-1	L	3w bid 2nd;drift;held

8Gas Me UpRan 7thA. Fresu · K. AttardFresu · AttardB87 97 94▼-78-1Fair 10-19%▼ Down -787 97 94B

Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -7 · Last 3 figs 87 97 94

Jockey Antonio Fresu 34% career 12-for-98 on turf this meet (12%) · Trainer Kevin Attard 33% career 0-for-1 on turf this meet ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R3: Bella Musica 8-1, R5: Dreamology 6-1, R6: Rule Sixty Two 10-1, R7: Kokomotion 6-1 +2 more · Trainer R5: Podkova 10-1

Was 7th of 7 at the first call last time. Posted the fastest 4F work of the morning on Aug 29, in :47.00.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (No speed; fanned 7wd), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 14 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/3	WO	6f T	Nearctic G2	5th/7 -4L	87	1.1-1	No speed; fanned 7wd
9/12	WO	1m T	WoMile G1	3rd/6 -2L	97	20-1	Pull insd;angle 4w str
8/15	WO	1m T	KngEdwd G2	Won/6 by 1	94	2.1-1	Brk out;drift str;nod

9Runnin' Rocket▲Ran 4thS. Marin · J. SharpMarin · SharpB98 94 68▲▲+20↕20-1Fair 30-13%▲▲ Big jump +20 · career best98 94 68 ↕B▲ Last fig 98 at/above par 92

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #9 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +20 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 68–98 · Last 3 figs 98 94 68

▲ Last fig 98 at/above par 92

Jockey Samuel Marin 33% career 11-for-82 on turf this meet (13%) · Trainer Joe Sharp 40% career 3-for-19 on turf this meet (16%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Live 7-2, R2: Paradise Valley 10-1, R3: Cadillac Mary 5-1, R3: Coach Callahan 15-1 +4 more · Trainer R6: Leo's Reward 12-1

Picks up 6 pounds from its last start. A longer trip: 5 furlongs last out, 7 furlongs today.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

TROUBLED TRIP Angled 5w; closed fast last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 8d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/27	RP	5f T	GrtWstTSpB250k	2nd/7 -2L	98	5.0-1		Angled 5w; closed fast
8/30	KD	6½f T	OC 100k n3x	2nd/11	94	28-1	L	Ins;clr;duel;grudgngly
3/7	TP	6f D	BigDaddy Stk	5th/7 -4L	68	16-1		Stalk ins;chased;faded

10Spiced UpRan 12thE. Zayas · W. MottZayas · MottC88 90 88▲+320-1Fair 50-12%▲ Up +388 90 88C

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #11 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +3 · Last 3 figs 88 90 88

Jockey Edgard J Zayas 37% career 10-for-75 on turf this meet (13%) · Trainer William I Mott 34% career 0-for-34 on turf this meet (0%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R3: Night Sky 5-1, R4: Billy Bucchero 12-1, R5: Flightress 5-2, R6: Out Of The Fog 30-1 +4 more · Trainer R1: Hold'em 15-1, R1: Sconset Bluff 8-1, R5: Claim The Throne 4-1, R9: Bendoog 4-1 +3 more

★ FASTEST WORK

Fastest 4F work of its morning on Oct 15 (:47.80), a sign it is training forwardly. Beaten 4¼ lengths for 6th in a 10-horse race at BEL.

EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.

WORKS SHARP 4f in :47.80 on Oct 15 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/1	BEL	6f T	BELTfSpr G3	6th/10 -4¼L	88	9.0-1	b	4w upper; no response
9/4	SAR	5½f T	OC 80k n2x	Won/10 by 1½	90	4.4-1	b L	Bmp brk;3-4p trn;6p1/4
6/5	SAR	5½f T	OC 80k b	2nd/12 -1½L	88	8.1-1	b L	Bump foe; leaned; miss

11Rose RulerRan 14thD. Davis · M. MakerDavis · MakerC83 92 94▼-7@trip 8320-1Fair 30-13%▼ Down -783 92 94@trip 83C

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -7 · Best fig at today's trip 83 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 83 92 94

Jockey Dylan Davis 31% career 6-for-90 on turf this meet (7%) · Trainer Michael J Maker 36% career 1-for-29 on turf this meet (3%)

Also today · Jockey R3: I'm Not Kidding 20-1, R4: Road Show 8-1, R7: So Darn Pretty 12-1, R11: Harrow 8-1

WON LAST

A 53-day gap since its last race. Trending the wrong way on speed, 94 to 92 to 83.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 15d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/9	KD	7f T	OC 80k n2x	Won/11	83	2.0-1	b L	Prsd 3w;held clear
8/9	ELP	5½f T	OC 62k n2x	3rd/10 -1½L	92	2.4-1	b L	Stalk 2-3pbtw;duel plc
6/11	CD	5f T	Alw n1x	Won/7	94	2.1-1	b L	Step slw;2-3w;bid;clrd

12Intellect▲Ran 10thM. Franco · C. BrownFranco · BrownA96 102 92►3-1Fair 4-120%► Steady96 102 92A▲ Last fig 96 at/above par 922

Card model 20% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 96 102 92

▲ Last fig 96 at/above par 92

Jockey Manuel Franco 33% career ★ 25-for-106 on turf this meet (24%), #2 of 28 · Trainer Chad C Brown 37% career ★ 19-for-71 on turf this meet (27%), #3 of 52 ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Election Hero 9-5, R2: Contrary Thinking 9-5, R3: Pistolsnpearls 8-1, R4: House Of War 6-5 +6 more · Trainer R1: Captivated 5-2, R1: Election Hero 9-5, R3: Build Or Buy 4-1, R7: Tax Holiday 5-1 +2 more

Has won 2 of 4 going today's distance. Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 102, with 98 next best.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 9 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	BEL	1m T	ASchiller Stk	2nd/9 -¾L	96	2.2-1		Nudge foe3/16;bid1/8
8/14	SAR	1m T	OC 80k n2x	Won/7	102	1.9-1	L	2p1st;2-4p2nd;rally5p
7/11	SAR	1m T	OC 80k n2x	2nd/9 -3L	92	2.9-1	L	Ins1st;2-3p2nd;6p1/4

13Chasing Liberty▲Ran 6thK. Carmouche · R. AtrasCarmouche · AtrasC93 73 86▲▲+1015-1Fair 50-12%▲▲ Big jump +1093 73 86C▲ Last fig 93 at/above par 92

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #12 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · Last 3 figs 93 73 86

▲ Last fig 93 at/above par 92

Jockey K Carmouche 36% career 4-for-72 on turf this meet (6%) · Trainer Rob Atras 32% career 1-for-9 on turf this meet (11%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R3: Segway Pipeline 12-1, R4: Soldier's Glory 12-1, R6: Leo's Reward 12-1, R7: Two Martini's 10-1 +1 more · Trainer R3: Segway Pipeline 12-1

Finished 3rd in a 10-horse race at BEL, beaten ½ length. Goes 7 furlongs after running 6 furlongs last time.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Bobbled st; fought on. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 2 works in 30d, last 7d back

RECORD Chestnuts win 9% here vs 12% for all horses (237 starts)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/1	BEL	6f T	BELTfSpr G3	3rd/10 -½L	93	22-1		Bobbled st; fought on
8/30	KD	6½f T	OC 100k n3xv	10th/11 -6L	73	6.7-1	L	5w;tipd out;tired out
7/5	SAR	5½f T	HarvyPack Stk	4th/8 -3½L	86	10-1		Bmp brk;ins-2path turn

14SiliusRan 5thJ. Velazquez · H. MotionVelazquez · MotionC9112-1Fair 30-13%—91C
Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 91
Jockey J R Velazquez 34% career 0-for-11 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer H Graham Motion 35% career 1-for-9 on turf this meet (11%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R1: Horizontal Rain 3-1, R4: Captain George 6-1, R5: Royal County Down 8-1, R7: Toes 8-1 +3 more
4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS
H Graham Motion takes over the training from Christophe Ferland. Purse drops from $1,000,000 to $175,000 against its last start.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.
WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 4 works in 30d, last 8d ago
RECORD Chestnuts win 9% here vs 12% for all horses (237 starts)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/12 WO 1m T WoMile G1 6th/6 -5½L 91 12-1 Rated;stalk3w;no rally
7/19 CHY 1m T Messidor G3 Won/7 — —
6/18 LCH 6.95909f T Sngpr Pls P G3 2nd/8 — —

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
9/12	WO	1m T	WoMile G1	6th/6 -5½L	91	12-1	Rated;stalk3w;no rally
7/19	CHY	1m T	Messidor G3	Won/7	—	—
6/18	LCH	6.95909f T	Sngpr Pls P G3	2nd/8	—	—

15Stars and StridesJ. Alvarado · W. MottAlvarado · MottC83 69 79►20-1<1%► Steady83 69 79C

Card model <1% · Our #16 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 83 69 79

Jockey Junior Alvarado 34% career 1-for-20 on turf this meet (5%) · Trainer William I Mott 34% career 0-for-34 on turf this meet (0%) ★ hot

Worked 4F in :48.20 on Aug 31, 2nd of 18 at the distance. Off 56 days since the last start.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 8d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/6	SAR	5½f T	rDscoPrtnrB150k	6th/7 -5L	83	9.6-1	b	Inside turn;no rally
7/26	SAR	6½f D	OC 110k b	7th/7 -7L	69	15-1	b L	In hand ins; tired
4/16	KEE	1 1/16 T	Alw n3x	DNF	—	5.6-1	L	Pulled up 1/4;walk off

16Mission ImprobableE. Zayas · R. BrissetZayas · BrissetC87 91 86►≡20-1<1%► Steady87 91 86 ≡C

Card model <1% · Our #15 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 86–91 · Last 3 figs 87 91 86

Jockey Edgard J Zayas 37% career 10-for-75 on turf this meet (13%) · Trainer Rodolphe Brisset 34% career 2-for-9 on turf this meet (22%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R3: Night Sky 5-1, R4: Billy Bucchero 12-1, R5: Flightress 5-2, R6: Out Of The Fog 30-1 +4 more · Trainer R4: Miracle Morrow 8-1

★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST

Dropped in well back early last out, 6th of 6 at the first call. Carries 122 pounds, 4 less than last time.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 22d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	BEL	6f T	Alw s	Won/6 by 4	87	2.3-1	b L	Bmp;3w;surged;in time
9/7	KD	6½f T	Alw n1x	Won/12 by 3	91	8.2-1	b L	3w-ins;6w1/4;splt;clsd
8/9	SAR	5½f T	Alw n1x	4th/10 -5¾L	86	9.4-1	b L	Clip heels erly;tkn up

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #6 Fond Farewell, finished 2nd.

1st4Capitol HillWin$16.88Place$6.40Show$4.50Our #3

2nd6Fond FarewellWin—Place$3.62Show$3.02Our #1

3rd7GiocosoWin—Place—Show$7.18Our #6

4th9Runnin' RocketOur #9

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

BELMONT PARK · RACE 10

OFFICIAL

Casa Creed Stakes

Field

16 runners

Purse

$175,000

Post

3:51 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#6 · 22%

Stakes, for 3-year-olds and up.

Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.

● Track record at 7 Furlongs: 79.23

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #6 Fond Farewell (a presser/stalker, M/L 5-1). Recent figures: 95 · 86 · 90. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #12 Intellect at 3-1. Use #4 Capitol Hill in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · 2ND

Top pick Fond Farewell ran 2nd · Capitol Hill won (our #3)

What worked

✓ Top pick in the money (2nd)
✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #3)
✓ Our top 3 finished 2nd, —, 1st

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#6 FOND FAREWELL	2nd
#2	#12 INTELLECT	—
#3	#4 CAPITOL HILL	1st
#4	#8 GAS ME UP	7th
#5	#2 WE'RE IN TROUBLE	9th

Actual finish

1st	#4 Capitol Hill	our #3
2nd	#6 Fond Farewell	our #1
3rd	#7 Giocoso	our #6
4th	#9 Runnin' Rocket	our #9
5th	Silius (IRE)	unranked

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #12 INTELLECT (3-1) — our number has it ranked #2.
#12 INTELLECT — our #2 number, about right at the windows (20.4% to their 17.8%).
#6 FOND FAREWELL — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 15.7%, they've got 11.9%.
#4 CAPITOL HILL — our #3 number, about right at the windows (10.8% to their 10.2%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#6 FOND FAREWELL — we make it 15.7%, the morning line works out to 11.9%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Longshot the model rates above its line: #2 WE'RE IN TROUBLE (10-1) — our fair 7.5% is above the morning line's 6.5%; supported by: 3-way speed duel up front — meltdown sets up the closer

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #1 Bonus Move; pressure from #3 Piper's Factor, #6 Fond Farewell; the shape helps #3 Piper's Factor, #5 Alogon, #6 Fond Farewell; and works against #1 Bonus Move.

Lead

1Bonus Move101

Press

3Piper's Factor946Fond Farewell929Runnin' Rocket90

Stalk

7Giocoso968Gas Me Up9411Rose Ruler9115Stars And Strides8914Silius8413Chasing Liberty835Alogon82

2We're In Trouble10112Intellect864Capitol Hill8316Mission Improbable8210Spiced Up78

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Bonus Move

101

Giocoso

Piper's Factor

Gas Me Up

Fond Farewell

Rose Ruler

Runnin' Rocket

Stars And Strides

Silius

Chasing Liberty

Alogon

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Mission Improbable

We're In Trouble

Spiced Up

Capitol Hill

Intellect

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Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

EXACTA ($1); TRIFECTA (.50); SUPER (.10); DOUBLE ($1) 10 & 11

TBredIQ shows analysis only. We don’t build tickets or suggest amounts.

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