R12 Lone Star Park · Trial

10:51 PM ET · 400 Yards Dirt · $10,000 · 9 runners10:51 PM · 1.8f Dirt · 9 runners

Upcoming $10K · Trial

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Tres DinastiasE. Hernandez · S. RamirezHernandez · RamirezC64 80 76▼▼-1130-1Fair 20-14%▼▼ Big drop -1164 80 76C

Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -11 · Last 3 figs 64 80 76

Jockey Eleazar Rivera Hernandez 38% career ★ 4-for-18 on dirt this meet (22%), #2 of 52 · Trainer Selina Ramirez 32% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet ★ hot

Was running in maiden special weight; today's stakes nongraded is an easier level on paper. Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 132d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	LS	1.59091f D	MSW	10th/10 -7¾L	64	33-1	b	Bmp twice;faded
8/16	GIL	1.59091f D	MSW	3rd/10 -1¼L	80	7.9-1	b	Steady drive gain show
7/31	RET	1.13636f D	sMdSpWt	4th/9 -¾L	76	8.2-1	b	No menace

2Queen StoneA. Rivera · J. StinebaughRivera · StinebaughC58 76 74▼▼-21↕@trip 5820-1Fair 20-14%▼▼ Big drop -2158 76 74 ↕@trip 58C

Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -21 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 58–87 · Best fig at today's trip 58 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 58 76 74

Jockey Ali Rivera 34% career 9-for-80 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer John A Stinebaugh 36% career 10-for-52 on dirt this meet (19%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Cowboys Love Wine 2-1, R2: Tomorrows Dynasty 9-2, R3: Candy In My Arms 6-1, R4: Curls Favorite Jet 2-1 +8 more · Trainer R1: Cowboys Love Wine 2-1, R2: Tomorrows Dynasty 9-2, R3: Candy In My Arms 6-1, R4: Curls Favorite Jet 2-1 +8 more

Last out was 9th, 9½ lengths behind the winner, in a 10-horse stakes race at LS.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (1 work in 30d, last 15d ago)

RECORD Ali Rivera from post 2 here: 7 wins, 22 top-3 in 46 rides · 17% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/19	LS	1.81818f D	FutTrl10000	9th/10 -9½L	58	50-1	b L	Brk out;bmp;faded
8/7	RET	1.59091f D	FutTrl10000	6th/9 -2¼L	76	6.8-1	b L	No menace
7/2	RET	1.59091f D	sFutTrl10000	3rd/9 -2L	74	11-1	b L	Bid; out finished

3Sleepy ChilitosN. Duran · H. BaezaDuran · BaezaA92 89 92▲+46-5Fair 2-132%▲ Up +4 · career best92 89 92A1

Card model 32% · Fair odds 2-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +4 · career best · Last 3 figs 92 89 92

Jockey Nestor Duran 40% career 1-for-19 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer Harvey Baeza 14% career 2-for-17 on dirt this meet (12%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Ohtani 30-1, R6: Cowboys Flying 2-5, R9: Cajuns 123 6-5, R10: Encinas Legacy 20-1 · Trainer R9: Cowgirl Lyndi G 30-1, R14: Thistrainsrelentless 30-1

60D LAYOFF

Changes barns, from Carlos Gabriel Castro to Harvey Baeza. Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 92, with 87 next best.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS SHARP 1f in :13.20 on Feb 6 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

RECORD Nestor Duran from post 3 here: 3 wins, 11 top-3 in 22 rides · 15% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/28	DED	1.59091f D	BigEasyFut160k	2nd/8 -2L	92	8.5-1	b L	Solid try; held 2nd
8/7	DED	1.59091f D	FutTrl5000	Won/9 by ¾	89	1.9-1	b L	Best stride late
6/27	DED	1.36364f D	Alw n2l	2nd/9 -1L	92	1.9-1	b L	Gamely late; missed

4Pop a RockzF. Giles · B. BolenGiles · BolenC77 75 74▲+3≡20-1Fair 15-17%▲ Up +3 · career best77 75 74 ≡C3

Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #3 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +3 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 74–77 · Last 3 figs 77 75 74

Jockey Francisco Giles 29% career 3-for-48 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Bradley Bolen 27% career 3-for-40 on dirt this meet (8%)

Also today · Jockey R5: Heroic Attempt 30-1, R8: Latest Crisis 30-1, R9: Swingin Policy 30-1 · Trainer R5: Heroic Attempt 30-1, R8: Latest Crisis 30-1, R9: Swingin Policy 30-1, R14: Warp Speed 20-1

60D LAYOFF

98 days since the last start, so it needs the works to say it's ready. Drops from maiden special weight to stakes nongraded.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 8d back

RECORD Francisco Giles from post 4 here: 1 win, 11 top-3 in 34 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
7/24	DED	1.36364f D	sMdSpWt	5th/9 -1¼L	77	12-1	b L	Even effort
7/2	DED	1.59091f D	sMdSpWt	2nd/8	75	8.1-1	b L	Duel; lost head bob
4/16	HOU	1.36364f D	MSW	2nd/9 by nk	74	10-1	b L	Bid; second best

5Rustys Lil DulceLSE. Navarrete · S. WoodNavarrete · WoodB8312-1Fair 12-18%—83BLS
Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 83
LS
Longshot read: 12-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 8% against a line of 6%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Eugenio Alberto Navarrete 1-for-18 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer S Trey Wood 28% career 4-for-28 on dirt this meet (14%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Timeto Quit 30-1, R2: Rr Evil Jess 30-1, R4: Delightfully Sage 6-1, R5: Sashay My Life Away 12-1 +1 more · Trainer R1: Timeto Quit 30-1, R2: Rr Evil Jess 30-1, R3: Fearless Cowboy 7-2, R4: Delightfully Sage 6-1 +11 more
3rd last time, 2 lengths back, in a field of 10. Class relief: maiden special weight last time, stakes nongraded today.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 23 days ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/15 LS 1.59091f D MSW 3rd/10 -2L 83 25-1 L Late rush

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/15	LS	1.59091f D	MSW	3rd/10 -2L	83	25-1	L	Late rush

6A Tres of PoliticsF. Calderon · L. HernandezCalderon · HernandezA81 75 60▲▲+14@trip 819-2Fair 8-111%▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best81 75 60@trip 81A

Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #9 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 81 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 75 60

Jockey Francisco Calderon 37% career 8-for-41 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Leonel Hernandez 31% career 0-for-6 on dirt this meet ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Fall Classic 8-5, R2: Unblemished V 5-2, R3: Konklusiv 2-1, R4: Staggeringcowboy 7-2 +9 more · Trainer R8: First Dashing Cowboy 3-1, R9: Tha Cash Wagon 30-1

60D LAYOFFWON LAST

Figures are climbing: 60, 75, 81 over its last three. Leonel Hernandez takes over the training from Viviane Hill.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 24d back)

RECORD Francisco Calderon from post 6 here: 5 wins, 15 top-3 in 37 rides · 19% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/21	DED	1.81818f D	MSW	Won/10	81	0.8-1	b L	Speed;drift in; best
5/31	LA	1.59091f D	FutTrl6000	6th/9 -2¾L	75	26-1	b	Hit gate/swervd out st
4/25	LA	1.36364f D	MSW	6th/8 -2¼L	60	5.3-1	b	Off slow/steadied st

7GoldminingR. Hernandez Jr. · J. SanchezHernandez Jr. · SanchezB85 74 73▲▲+1212-1Fair 10-19%▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best85 74 73B2

Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best · Last 3 figs 85 74 73

Jockey Raul Padilla Jr Hernandez 38% career ★ 11-for-55 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Jose Luis Iii Sanchez 34% career 5-for-42 on dirt this meet (12%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Jess Sissy Cartel 6-1 · Trainer R2: Jess Sissy Cartel 6-1, R5: Marvelous Marv 3-1, R8: Get Aggressive 5-1, R9: Hesawthebatsignal 5-1 +1 more

60D LAYOFF

Returns from a 175-day break, the biggest in the field. New trainer: Wendy Alejandra Garcia had it last time, Jose Luis Iii Sanchez now.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS Routine prep: 1 work in 30d, last 21d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
5/8	RP	1.59091f D	FutTrl15000	3rd/8 -1L	85	4.5-1	b L	Off best; cldnt fend
4/16	RP	1½f D	MSW	4th/10 -1L	74	13-1	b L	On heels of duel duo
3/7	RP	1.36364f D	FutTrl10000	4th/6 -2¼L	73	21-1	b L	Bmpd; no rally

8Mr Mallard HocksL. Vivanco · B. OlavesonVivanco · OlavesonB77 70 83►@trip 708-1Fair 10-18%► Steady77 70 83@trip 70B

Card model 8% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 70 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 70 83

Jockey Luis L Vivanco 36% career 10-for-70 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Ben Olaveson 14% career 3-for-13 on dirt this meet (23%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Abouta Get Western 5-1, R2: Mondays Best 20-1, R7: Coronas First Cowboy 2-1, R9: The Real Mvp Z 15-1 +2 more · Trainer R9: The Real Mvp Z 15-1

60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORK

New trainer: Marc E Jungers had it last time, Ben Olaveson now. Fastest 1.1F work of its morning on Mar 25 (:13.40), a sign it is training forwardly.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Mar 25 (1.1F in :13.40), 1 work in 30d

RECORD Luis L Vivanco from post 8 here: 4 wins, 9 top-3 in 36 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/7	RET	1.59091f D	FutTrl10000	8th/10 -1¾L	77	4.9-1	b L	No threat
7/11	ALB	1.81818f D	Alw n2l	6th/9 -2¼L	70	4.3-1	b L	Bid; gave way
4/24	HOU	1.59091f D	FutTrl10000	Won/7	83	1.4-1	b L	Dueled; drew away

9Ab InfernoB. Candanosa · K. ReedCandanosa · ReedA79 78@trip 793-1Fair 5-116%—79 78@trip 79A
Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Best fig at today's trip 79 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 79 78
Jockey Bryan Candanosa 36% career 3-for-18 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Kash Reed 31% career ★ 7-for-28 on dirt this meet (25%), #3 of 67 ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R1: Shiny Favorite 20-1, R2: Flight History 12-1, R5: Gunsmoke 123 15-1, R7: Coronainthefastlanes 20-1 +3 more · Trainer R2: Flight History 12-1, R5: Im Significant 5-1, R6: Panther Pursuit 20-1, R8: Sweet Pursuit 7-2 +3 more
★ FASTEST WORK
2nd of 25 at 1F on Sep 1, in :12.60. The Jul 15 work, 1.5F in :16.40, was the best time at that distance that morning.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 59 days ago
RECORD Bryan Candanosa from post 9 here: 2 wins, 6 top-3 in 17 rides · 16% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/19 LS 1.81818f D FutTrl10000 3rd/10 -1½L 79 7.0-1 b L Brk in;bmp twice;surge
4/16 RP 1½f D MSW 4th/8 -2L 78 3.4-1 b L Hesitated break

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/19	LS	1.81818f D	FutTrl10000	3rd/10 -1½L	79	7.0-1	b L	Brk in;bmp twice;surge
4/16	RP	1½f D	MSW	4th/8 -2L	78	3.4-1	b L	Hesitated break

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

LONE STAR PARK · RACE 12

UPCOMING

Trial

Field

9 runners

Purse

$10,000

Post

10:51 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#3 · 32%

Stakes, for 2-year-olds.

Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 400 Yards: 19.2

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #3 Sleepy Chilitos (a tactical type, M/L 6-5). Recent figures: 92 · 89 · 92. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #7 Goldmining at 12-1. Use #4 Pop A Rockz in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #3 SLEEPY CHILITOS (6-5) — our number agrees.
#3 SLEEPY CHILITOS — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (33.4% to their 35.5%).
#9 AB INFERNO — our #5 number, about right at the windows (19.9% to their 19.5%).
#6 A TRES OF POLITICS — our #9 number, about right at the windows (13.1% to their 14.2%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

Longshot the model rates above its line: #4 POP A ROCKZ (20-1) — our fair 4.6% is above the morning line's 3.7%; supported by: figures trending up 74→75→77 (project ~76)

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Tres Dinastias, #2 Queen Stone, #3 Sleepy Chilitos.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Tres Dinastias2Queen Stone3Sleepy Chilitos4Pop A Rockz5Rustys Lil Dulce6A Tres Of Politics7Goldmining8Mr Mallard Hocks9Ab Inferno

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Tres Dinastias

Queen Stone

Sleepy Chilitos

Pop A Rockz

Rustys Lil Dulce

A Tres Of Politics

Goldmining

Mr Mallard Hocks

Ab Inferno

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Bet types

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EXACTA / $.50 TRIFECTA / $.10 SUPERFECTA / DAILY DOUBLE

$.50 PICK 3 (RACES 12-13-14) / $.50 PICK 4 (RACES 12-13-14-15)

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