R15 Lone Star Park · Trial

12:09 PM ET · 400 Yards Dirt · $10,000 · 10 runners12:09 PM · 1.8f Dirt · 10 runners

Upcoming $10K · Trial

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles
  1. 1Mounte RushmoreB. Candanosa · J. VazquezCandanosa · VazquezC93 75 76▲▲+16@trip 7620-1Fair 20-15%▲▲ Big jump +16 · career best93 75 76@trip 76C

    Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +16 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 76 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 93 75 76

    Jockey Bryan Candanosa 36% career 3-for-18 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Juan L Vazquez 30% career 2-for-6 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R1: Shiny Favorite 20-1, R2: Flight History 12-1, R5: Gunsmoke 123 15-1, R7: Coronainthefastlanes 20-1 +3 more · Trainer R1: Ratically Inspyred 20-1, R3: Konklusiv 2-1, R7: Reddingten 15-1
    ★ FASTEST WORK

    Was running in allowance; today's stakes nongraded is an easier level on paper. Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field.

    PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 1F on Jun 9; 0 works in 30d
    RECORD Bryan Candanosa from post 1 here: 6 wins, 15 top-3 in 30 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/3LS1.13636f DAlw n2l5th/9 -1¼L9310-1b LBmp;evenly
    8/8ALB2f DFutTrl100007th/9 -2¼L750.6-1b LThrough early;
    6/27ALB1.81818f DFutTrl100003rd/10 -2½L763.9-1b LVeered out; no rally
  2. 2Kj Money MakerLSR. Ramirez Jr. · M. JungersRamirez Jr. · JungersC82 88 78►@trip 8220-1Fair 20-15%► Steady82 88 78@trip 82CLS

    Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 82 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 82 88 78

    LS

    Longshot read: 20-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 5% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.

    Jockey Raul Jr Ramirez 33% career 7-for-53 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Marc E Jungers 32% career ★ 11-for-55 on dirt this meet (20%) ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R1: Y It Earp 10-1, R13: Karo Kiss 30-1 · Trainer R1: Y It Earp 10-1, R2: Mondays Best 20-1, R7: Coronas First Cowboy 2-1, R13: Karo Kiss 30-1

    Last out was 4th, 4 lengths behind the winner, in a 9-horse stakes race at LS. Winless in 7 starts at this distance.

    PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 212 days ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/19LS1.81818f DFutTrl100004th/9 -4L8212-1b LBmp st;lacked rally
    8/21RET1½f DMSW3rd/10 -1½L880.5-1b LOff slow; closed fast
    7/31RET1.81818f DMSW2nd/8 -1¾L780.6-1b LRallied; up for place
  3. 3Tell a ScoutR. Ramirez · S. WoodRamirez · WoodA98 95 79▲+7@trip 798-5Fair 5-227%▲ Up +7 · career best98 95 79@trip 79A1

    Card model 27% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +7 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 79 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 98 95 79

    Jockey Ricky Ramirez 33% career 7-for-53 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer S Trey Wood 28% career 4-for-28 on dirt this meet (14%)
    Also today · Jockey R3: Fearless Cowboy 7-2, R6: Agree N Tell 12-1, R7: Allikat Ttu 30-1, R8: A Noble Cowgirl 30-1 +3 more · Trainer R1: Timeto Quit 30-1, R2: Rr Evil Jess 30-1, R3: Fearless Cowboy 7-2, R4: Delightfully Sage 6-1 +11 more

    Owns the highest recent figure here at 98. Figures are climbing: 79, 95, 98 over its last three.

    PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
    TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Hopped start; solid bid. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.
    WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 21d ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/7ALB2f DAllAmerJuv200k2nd/10 -½L986.2-1b LHopped start;solid bid
    8/7ALB2f DFutTrl100002nd/10 -½L951.0-1b LFlew late;
    6/27ALB1.81818f DFutTrl10000Won/9 by nk790.5-1b LVied throughout; best
  4. 4Cr Favorite TequilaN. Villatoro · R. AlmanzaVillatoro · AlmanzaB90 86 80▲+6@trip 8010-1Fair 12-18%▲ Up +6 · career best90 86 80@trip 80B

    Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +6 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 80 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 90 86 80

    Jockey Noe Villatoro 30% career 9-for-61 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Rolando Almanza 23% career 2-for-13 on dirt this meet (15%)
    Also today · Jockey R2: Limites Sin B 7-5
    ★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST

    Winner of a 10-horse maiden special weight race at LS last time. Has moved up each time out, 80 to 86 to 90.

    PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    WORKS SHARP 1.1f in :12.40 on Apr 9 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d
    RECORD Noe Villatoro from post 4 here: 2 wins, 6 top-3 in 29 rides · 8% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/25LS1½f DsMdSpWtWon/10 by ½902.7-1b LClosed up late
    8/7ALB2f DFutTrl100006th/10 -3L8620-1b LNo final kick;
    7/11ALB1.81818f DMSW6th/10 -1¾L802.8-1b LEven effort
  5. 5Whole Lota MachoG. Medrano · W. GilesMedrano · GilesB78 78 86►@trip 7815-1Fair 15-16%► Steady78 78 86@trip 78B

    Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 78 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 78 78 86

    Jockey Gabriel Medrano 22% career · Trainer Wesley T Giles 33% career 2-for-4 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R4: Kj Casanova Cowboy 30-1, R10: Kj Bigbadleroybrown 8-1, R13: Shellys Valiant Boy 15-1 · Trainer R1: Abouta Get Western 5-1, R3: Kj Macho Man 12-1, R4: Kj Casanova Cowboy 30-1, R7: Lethal Wind 9-5 +3 more

    Moves up from stakes to stakes nongraded. Finished 3rd in an 8-horse stakes race at ALB, beaten ½ length.

    PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
    WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 17d back

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/25ALB1.81818f DFutTrl80003rd/8 -½L7811-1b LFought gamely;
    6/26ALB1.81818f DFutTrl10000Won/9786.3-1b LBroke out; drew clear
    4/17SRP1.59091f DMSW2nd/9 by hd866.5-1b LJust missed nod
  6. 6Prophets ViewM. Delgado · J. JoinerDelgado · JoinerB93 85 88▲▲+9@trip 8015-1Fair 15-16%▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best93 85 88@trip 80B

    Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 80 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 93 85 88

    Jockey Mario Delgado 32% career 2-for-14 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Justin W Joiner 32% career ★ 5-for-21 on dirt this meet (24%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: My Special Blood 30-1, R2: The Cowboys A Legend 12-1, R3: Favorite Power Cc 30-1, R8: Thys Kyss 20-1 +2 more · Trainer R1: My Special Blood 30-1, R2: The Cowboys A Legend 12-1, R3: Favorite Power Cc 30-1, R4: Staggeringcowboy 7-2 +6 more
    WON LAST

    A big drop, maiden special weight to stakes nongraded, and worth asking why. Comes in off a victory in a 10-horse maiden special weight race at WRD.

    PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 93 days ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/5WRD1½f DsMdSpWtWon/10930.6-1b LTook command;dug in
    9/14WRD1.59091f DsFutTrl50003rd/8 -1L856.1-1b LChased;outkicked
    8/8ALB2f DFutTrl100003rd/9 -2L8810-1b LRallied late;
  7. 7Lawman 123C. Cardenas · S. GonzalesCardenas · GonzalesC7420-1Fair 20-14%—74C

    Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 74

    Jockey Christian Cardenas 32% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet · Trainer Sebastian Gonzales 27% career
    Also today · Trainer R1: Fall Classic 8-5, R7: Irish Lancer 20-1
    60D LAYOFF

    Freshened 176 days, longer than anything else in the field. Watch how its recent works look. Changes barns, from James J Iii Gonzales to Sebastian Gonzales.

    PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
    WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 17d ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    5/7RP1.59091f DFutTrl150002nd/8 -1½L740.8-1LBrk inward;gaining
  8. 8Cyber PaintG. Linares · Z. StinebaughLinares · StinebaughA96 94 91▲+5≡@trip 915-2Fair 4-120%▲ Up +5 · career best96 94 91 ≡@trip 91A2

    Card model 20% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +5 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 87–96 · Best fig at today's trip 91 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 96 94 91

    Jockey Gilberto Linares 33% career 8-for-48 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Zackary Stinebaugh 36% career 0-for-16 on dirt this meet (0%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: Rocking Cowboy 6-1, R3: Dracula 20-1, R4: Eagle On The Prey 15-1, R7: Your Flying Dreams 30-1 +4 more · Trainer R1: Gjr Eaglet 30-1, R3: Dracula 20-1, R4: Eagle On The Prey 15-1, R7: Mister Sinatra 9-2 +2 more

    A 53-day gap since its last race. Runs for $10,000 today after a $200,000 race last time.

    PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
    WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 15d ago
    RECORD Gilberto Linares from post 8 here: 4 wins, 9 top-3 in 20 rides · 15% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/7ALB2f DAllAmerJuv200k4th/10 -2L968.3-1b LPushed out start
    8/7ALB2f DFutTrl100002nd/10 -1L943.4-1b LRallied late;
    7/12ALB1.81818f DRainbFutG1 G16th/10 -1¾L9112-1b LBroke slow; lost path
  9. 9Jet Two Is ArmedA. Rivera · J. StinebaughRivera · StinebaughA80 91 90▼▼-8@trip 917-2Fair 5-116%▼▼ Big drop -880 91 90@trip 91A3

    Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -8 · Best fig at today's trip 91 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 91 90

    Jockey Ali Rivera 34% career 9-for-80 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer John A Stinebaugh 36% career 10-for-52 on dirt this meet (19%) ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R1: Cowboys Love Wine 2-1, R2: Tomorrows Dynasty 9-2, R3: Candy In My Arms 6-1, R4: Curls Favorite Jet 2-1 +8 more · Trainer R1: Cowboys Love Wine 2-1, R2: Tomorrows Dynasty 9-2, R3: Candy In My Arms 6-1, R4: Curls Favorite Jet 2-1 +8 more

    Has won 4 of 6 going today's distance. Runs for $10,000 today after a $455,310 race last time.

    PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
    TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Stumbled; bmpd. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 101 days ago
    RECORD Ali Rivera from post 9 here: 6 wins, 19 top-3 in 49 rides · 17% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/10LS1.81818f DDshCshFuG2 G28th/9 -6L8019-1b LStumbled;bmpd
    9/19LS1.81818f DFutTrl10000Won/9911.7-1b LPulled ahead;lil drift
    8/7ALB2f DFutTrl100005th/10 -3L901.6-1b LImproved position;
  10. 10The WalkwayF. Calderon · C. GandarillaCalderon · GandarillaC8130-1Fair 30-13%—81C

    Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 81

    Jockey Francisco Calderon 37% career 8-for-41 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Chris Gandarilla 33% career 2-for-13 on dirt this meet (15%) ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R1: Fall Classic 8-5, R2: Unblemished V 5-2, R3: Konklusiv 2-1, R4: Staggeringcowboy 7-2 +9 more · Trainer R1: Shiny Favorite 20-1

    Francisco Calderon takes over from Ali Rivera in the saddle. Last out was 5th, 2 lengths behind the winner, in a 10-horse maiden special weight race at LS.

    PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 43 days ago
    RECORD Francisco Calderon from post 10 here: 8 wins, 15 top-3 in 32 rides · 19% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/9LS1.13636f DMSW5th/10 -2L8118-1b LDrifted out st

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks
1 2 3
Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair
The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?
The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72
Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕
≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★
Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips
Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
FINISHSTART400 YARDS · DIRT · mainstraight course

LONE STAR PARK · RACE 15

UPCOMING

Trial

Field
10 runners
Purse
$10,000
Post
12:09 PM ET
Pace
Pace Vacuum
Card model top pick
#3 · 27%

Stakes, for 2-year-olds.

Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 400 Yards: 19.2

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #3 Tell A Scout (a tactical type, M/L 8-5). Recent figures: 98 · 95 · 79. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #8 Cyber Paint at 5-2. Use #9 Jet Two Is Armed in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

  • Market favourite #3 TELL A SCOUT (8-5) — our number agrees.
  • #3 TELL A SCOUT — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (28.7% to their 30.0%).
  • #8 CYBER PAINT — our #2 number, about right at the windows (22.0% to their 22.3%).
  • #9 JET TWO IS ARMED — our #3 number, about right at the windows (17.4% to their 17.3%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

  • The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Mounte Rushmore, #2 Kj Money Maker, #3 Tell A Scout.

Lead
none
Press
none
Stalk
none
Close
none
No style yet
1Mounte Rushmore2Kj Money Maker3Tell A Scout4Cr Favorite Tequila5Whole Lota Macho6Prophets View7Lawman 1238Cyber Paint9Jet Two Is Armed10The Walkway

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

1
Mounte Rushmore
0
2
Kj Money Maker
0
3
Tell A Scout
0
4
Cr Favorite Tequila
0
5
Whole Lota Macho
0
6
Prophets View
0
7
Lawman 123
0
8
Cyber Paint
0
9
Jet Two Is Armed
0
10
The Walkway
0
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