R13 Lone Star Park · Trial

11:17 AM ET · 400 Yards Dirt · $10,000 · 10 runners11:17 AM · 1.8f Dirt · 10 runners

Upcoming $10K · Trial

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles
  1. 1Cheyenne StoneG. Pina · W. GarciaPina · GarciaB83 79 83►≡@trip 7930-1Fair 30-13%► Steady83 79 83 ≡@trip 79B

    Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 79–83 · Best fig at today's trip 79 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 83 79 83

    Jockey Garcia Rosendo E Pina 32% career 3-for-51 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Wendy Alejandra Garcia 32% career 1-for-25 on dirt this meet (4%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: Gjr Eaglet 30-1, R6: Sugars Flying 20-1, R9: Raptor Stone 7-2, R14: Talego Stone 20-1 · Trainer R6: Sugars Flying 20-1, R9: Raptor Stone 7-2, R14: Talego Stone 20-1
    ★ FASTEST WORK

    Drops from allowance to stakes nongraded. Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field.

    PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
    WORKS SHARP 1f in :11.20 on Jun 10 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/2LS1.13636f DAlw n2l10th/10 -4L8310-1b LBrk out;bmp;faded
    9/19LS1.81818f DFutTrl100007th/9 -3L7925-1b LLacked bid
    8/7RET1.59091f DFutTrl100004th/9 -½L836.1-1b LDueled; weakened
  2. 2Shellys Valiant BoyG. Medrano · W. GilesMedrano · GilesB79 79 59▲+7↕@trip 7915-1Fair 20-14%▲ Up +7 · career best79 79 59 ↕@trip 79B

    Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #9 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +7 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 59–79 · Best fig at today's trip 79 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 79 79 59

    Jockey Gabriel Medrano 22% career · Trainer Wesley T Giles 33% career 2-for-4 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R4: Kj Casanova Cowboy 30-1, R10: Kj Bigbadleroybrown 8-1, R15: Whole Lota Macho 15-1 · Trainer R1: Abouta Get Western 5-1, R3: Kj Macho Man 12-1, R4: Kj Casanova Cowboy 30-1, R7: Lethal Wind 9-5 +3 more

    4th last time, 1 length back, in a field of 9. Winless in 5 starts at this distance.

    PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 101d back)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/25ALB1.81818f DFutTrl80004th/9 -1L7965-1b LBest of others;
    8/8ALB2f DFutTrl100003rd/9 -1¾L7949-1b LImproved position;
    6/26ALB1.81818f DFutTrl100008th/9 -4¾L5932-1b LHopped;bumped;squeezed
  3. 3HunnicutA. Rivera · J. StinebaughRivera · StinebaughC72 78@trip 7810-1Fair 15-16%—72 78@trip 78C

    Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Best fig at today's trip 78 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 78

    Jockey Ali Rivera 34% career 9-for-80 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer John A Stinebaugh 36% career 10-for-52 on dirt this meet (19%) ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R1: Cowboys Love Wine 2-1, R2: Tomorrows Dynasty 9-2, R3: Candy In My Arms 6-1, R4: Curls Favorite Jet 2-1 +8 more · Trainer R1: Cowboys Love Wine 2-1, R2: Tomorrows Dynasty 9-2, R3: Candy In My Arms 6-1, R4: Curls Favorite Jet 2-1 +8 more
    60D LAYOFFJky 15/57 from post 3

    Off 83 days since the last start. 2nd of 26 at 1F on Oct 15, in :11.80.

    PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
    WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 15d ago
    RECORD Ali Rivera from post 3 here: 15 wins, 36 top-3 in 57 rides · 17% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    8/8ALB2f DFutTrl100009th/10 -3½L728.7-1b LThrew head start;
    6/26ALB1.81818f DFutTrl100004th/10 -1L7838-1b LLost path;checked late
  4. 4NostalgicB. Candanosa · S. MendozaCandanosa · MendozaC7830-1Fair 50-12%—78C

    Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 78

    Jockey Bryan Candanosa 36% career 3-for-18 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Samuel Mendoza 32% career 1-for-5 on dirt this meet ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R1: Shiny Favorite 20-1, R2: Flight History 12-1, R5: Gunsmoke 123 15-1, R7: Coronainthefastlanes 20-1 +3 more · Trainer R2: La Golden Eagle 20-1
    60D LAYOFFJky 8/33 from post 4

    Last out was 7th, 2¼ lengths behind the winner, in a 9-horse stakes race at ALB. A 84-day gap since its last race.

    PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
    WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 11d ago
    RECORD Bryan Candanosa from post 4 here: 8 wins, 15 top-3 in 33 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    8/7ALB2f DFutTrl100007th/9 -2¼L7819-1b LFlat;
  5. 5El Huracano V★F. Calderon · J. NunezCalderon · NunezA99 85 85▲▲+13@trip 991-1Fair 3-240%▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best99 85 85@trip 99A★ Best at the trip 991

    Card model 40% · Fair odds 3-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 99 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 99 85 85

    ★ Best at the trip 99
    Jockey Francisco Calderon 37% career 8-for-41 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Jesus Nunez 27% career
    Also today · Jockey R1: Fall Classic 8-5, R2: Unblemished V 5-2, R3: Konklusiv 2-1, R4: Staggeringcowboy 7-2 +9 more · Trainer R2: Unblemished V 5-2
    60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST

    Jesus Nunez takes over the training from Raymond G Valerio. Runs for $10,000 today after a $1,000,000 race last time.

    PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 1F on Mar 7; 1 work in 30d
    RECORD Francisco Calderon from post 5 here: 9 wins, 20 top-3 in 41 rides · 19% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    7/12ALB1.81818f DRainbFutG1 G1Won/10992.2-1bInched away; best
    6/26ALB1.81818f DFutTrl10000Won/8850.3-1bMuch the best
    5/30RP1.59091f DHrtgPlFuG1 G12nd/9 by nk854.1-1b LStride4stride;nosedout
  6. 6Karo KissLSR. Ramirez Jr. · M. JungersRamirez Jr. · JungersC63 67 81▼▼-1130-1Fair 30-14%▼▼ Big drop -1163 67 81CLS

    Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -11 · Last 3 figs 63 67 81

    LS

    Longshot read: 30-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 4% against a line of 3%. A read, not a bet.

    Jockey Raul Jr Ramirez 33% career 7-for-53 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Marc E Jungers 32% career ★ 11-for-55 on dirt this meet (20%) ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R1: Y It Earp 10-1, R15: Kj Money Maker 20-1 · Trainer R1: Y It Earp 10-1, R2: Mondays Best 20-1, R7: Coronas First Cowboy 2-1, R15: Kj Money Maker 20-1
    60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORK

    Figures have slipped: 81, 67, 63 over its last three. Freshened 141 days, longer than anything else in the field. Watch how its recent works look.

    PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    WORKS SHARP 1f in :12.00 on Mar 11 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    6/11HOU1½f DAlw n2l8th/10 -5L6310-1b LNo menace
    5/23HOU1.59091f DFutTrl100007th/10 -4¼L677.2-1b LStumbled mid stretch
    4/16HOU1.36364f DMSWWon/9813.2-1b LStrong drive; best
  7. 7Candy Creek SenatorM. Delgado · J. JoinerDelgado · JoinerB77 91 79▼-6@trip 796-1Fair 8-111%▼ Down -677 91 79@trip 79B

    Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -6 · Best fig at today's trip 79 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 91 79

    Jockey Mario Delgado 32% career 2-for-14 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Justin W Joiner 32% career ★ 5-for-21 on dirt this meet (24%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: My Special Blood 30-1, R2: The Cowboys A Legend 12-1, R3: Favorite Power Cc 30-1, R8: Thys Kyss 20-1 +2 more · Trainer R1: My Special Blood 30-1, R2: The Cowboys A Legend 12-1, R3: Favorite Power Cc 30-1, R4: Staggeringcowboy 7-2 +6 more
    ★ FASTEST WORK

    0 for 5 at today's distance. Fastest 1F work of its morning on Jul 29 (:11.40), a sign it is training forwardly.

    PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
    WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Jul 29 (1F in :11.40), 0 works in 30d

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/19LS1.81818f DFutTrl100005th/9 -3L773.4-1b LStep slow;drift in;bmp
    8/8ALB2f DFutTrl100003rd/9 -2½L9112-1b LBumped hard; 2ndbest
    6/26ALB1.81818f DFutTrl100005th/10 -2¼L796.3-1b LNo factor
  8. 8Shes a Cowboys FireR. Ramirez · S. WoodRamirez · WoodA85 103 88▼▼-10@trip 855-1Fair 7-112%▼▼ Big drop -1085 103 88@trip 85A3

    Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -10 · Best fig at today's trip 85 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 85 103 88

    Jockey Ricky Ramirez 33% career 7-for-53 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer S Trey Wood 28% career 4-for-28 on dirt this meet (14%)
    Also today · Jockey R3: Fearless Cowboy 7-2, R6: Agree N Tell 12-1, R7: Allikat Ttu 30-1, R8: A Noble Cowgirl 30-1 +3 more · Trainer R1: Timeto Quit 30-1, R2: Rr Evil Jess 30-1, R3: Fearless Cowboy 7-2, R4: Delightfully Sage 6-1 +11 more
    60D LAYOFF

    Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 103, with 99 next best. Returns from a 125-day break.

    PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 36d back)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    6/27ALB1.81818f DFutTrl100003rd/10 by hd852.6-1b LLed late;caught for 2d
    6/12ALB1.36364f DMSW2nd/9 -1L1030.6-1b LLate gain;miss
    5/22ALB1.59091f DFutTrl100003rd/9 by nk885.7-1b LVied throughout
  9. 9Bonita Sin TachaG. Linares · Z. StinebaughLinares · StinebaughC82 82 67▲+7@trip 6720-1Fair 30-14%▲ Up +7 · career best82 82 67@trip 67C

    Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +7 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 67 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 82 82 67

    Jockey Gilberto Linares 33% career 8-for-48 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Zackary Stinebaugh 36% career 0-for-16 on dirt this meet (0%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: Rocking Cowboy 6-1, R3: Dracula 20-1, R4: Eagle On The Prey 15-1, R7: Your Flying Dreams 30-1 +4 more · Trainer R1: Gjr Eaglet 30-1, R3: Dracula 20-1, R4: Eagle On The Prey 15-1, R7: Mister Sinatra 9-2 +2 more

    Was running in maiden special weight; today's stakes nongraded is an easier level on paper. Winless in 6 starts at this distance.

    PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Lil stumble. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 49d back)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/1LS1.59091f DMSW5th/10 -3¼L823.5-1b LLil stumble
    8/7ALB2f DFutTrl100007th/10 -2L8223-1b LNo rally;
    6/26ALB1.81818f DFutTrl100007th/9 -2¾L6710-1b LBore in early; outrun
  10. 10Nena CV. Urieta Jr. · M. PizanaUrieta Jr. · PizanaA95 87 83▲▲+109-2Fair 6-114%▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best95 87 83A2

    Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best · Last 3 figs 95 87 83

    Jockey Victor Manuel Jr Urieta 18-for-99 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Miguel Pizana 24% career 2-for-2 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R3: Jc Canelo 5-2, R7: Dk Bonita Jess 4-1, R8: A Fortunate Cowboy 5-2, R9: Cowgirl Lyndi G 30-1 +1 more · Trainer R7: Dk Bonita Jess 4-1, R8: A Fortunate Cowboy 5-2

    Changes barns, from Samuel Mendoza to Miguel Pizana. Has moved up each time out, 83 to 87 to 95.

    PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 86d ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/6SRR1.59091f DBoco Fut266k3rd/10 -1½L952.0-1bGame 3rd
    8/19SRR1.59091f DFutTrl10000Won/9871.4-1bStumbled;bmp;surged
    3/21RP1.36364f DOK Fut G2 G25th/8 -1L8310-1bNeeded more

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks
1 2 3
Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair
The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?
The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72
Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕
≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★
Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips
Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
FINISHSTART400 YARDS · DIRT · mainstraight course

LONE STAR PARK · RACE 13

UPCOMING

Trial

Field
10 runners
Purse
$10,000
Post
11:17 AM ET
Pace
Pace Vacuum
Card model top pick
#5 · 40%

Stakes, for 2-year-olds.

Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 400 Yards: 19.2

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #5 El Huracano V (a tactical type, M/L 1-1). Recent figures: 99 · 85 · 85. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #10 Nena C at 9-2. Use #8 Shes A Cowboys Fire in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

  • Market favourite #5 EL HURACANO V (1-1) — our number agrees.
  • #5 EL HURACANO V — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (37.2% to their 38.8%).
  • #10 NENA C — our #2 number, about right at the windows (14.6% to their 14.1%).
  • #8 SHES A COWBOYS FIRE — our #3 number, about right at the windows (13.1% to their 12.9%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

  • Longshot the model rates above its line: #6 KARO KISS (30-1) — our fair 2.9% is above the morning line's 2.5%; supported by: top barn (32%) + jockey (33%) at 30-1 (a hot trainer-jockey pairing; on our own re-test it did not beat its odds)
Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Cheyenne Stone, #2 Shellys Valiant Boy, #3 Hunnicut.

Lead
none
Press
none
Stalk
none
Close
none
No style yet
1Cheyenne Stone2Shellys Valiant Boy3Hunnicut4Nostalgic5El Huracano V6Karo Kiss7Candy Creek Senator8Shes A Cowboys Fire9Bonita Sin Tacha10Nena C

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

5
El Huracano V
11
1
Cheyenne Stone
0
2
Shellys Valiant Boy
0
3
Hunnicut
0
4
Nostalgic
0
6
Karo Kiss
0
7
Candy Creek Senator
0
8
Shes A Cowboys Fire
0
9
Bonita Sin Tacha
0
10
Nena C
0
Bet types offeredwager menu

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

EXACTA / $.50 TRIFECTA / $.10 SUPERFECTA / DAILY DOUBLE

$.50 PICK 3 (RACES 13-14-15)

TBredIQ shows analysis only. We don’t build tickets or suggest amounts.

BET OPTIONS

WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta

Wagers offered on this race — analysis only, no stake sizing.

For information only — not financial or wagering advice. Must be 21+ to wager where required by law. If gambling is affecting you or someone you know, help is available.